Exercise-based interventions targeting balance and falls in people with COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This review quantifies the mean treatment effect of exercise-based interventions on balance and falls risk in people with COPD. METHODS: A structured search strategy (2000-2023) was applied to eight databases to identify studies evaluating the impact of exercise-based interventions (≥14 days in duration) on balance or falls in people with COPD. Pooled mean treatment effects (95% confidence intervals (CIs), 95% prediction intervals (PIs)) were calculated for outcomes reported in five or more studies. Inter-individual response variance and the promise of behaviour change techniques (BCTs) were explored. RESULTS: 34 studies (n=1712) were included. There were greater improvements in balance post intervention compared to controls for the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) (mean 2.51, 95% CI 0.22-4.80, 95% PI -4.60-9.63), Timed Up and Go (TUG) test (mean -1.12 s, 95% CI -1.69- -0.55 s, 95% PI -2.78-0.54 s), Single-Leg Stance (SLS) test (mean 3.25 s, 95% CI 2.72-3.77 s, 95% PI 2.64-3.86 s) and Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale (mean 8.50%, 95% CI 2.41-14.58%, 95% PI -8.92-25.92%). Effect on falls remains unknown. Treatment effects were larger in male versus mixed-sex groups for the ABC scale and SLS test, and in balance training versus other exercise-based interventions for the BBS and TUG test. Falls history was not associated with changes in balance. Meta-analysis of individual response variance was not possible and study-level results were inconclusive. Eleven promising BCTs were identified (promise ratio ≥2). CONCLUSION: Evidence for the effect of exercise-based interventions eliciting clinically important improvements in balance for people with COPD is weak, but targeted balance training produces the greatest benefits. Future exercise interventions may benefit from inclusion of the identified promising BCTs.

Patient and clinician priorities for information on treatment outcomes for advanced ovarian cancer: a Delphi exercise.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with advanced ovarian cancer face a range of treatment options, and there is unwarranted variation in treatment decision-making between UK providers. Decision support tools that produce data on treatment outcomes as a function of individual patient characteristics, would help both patients and clinicians to make informed, preference- and values-based choices. However, data on treatment outcomes to include in such tools are lacking. METHODS: Following a literature review, a questionnaire was designed for use in a Delphi process to establish which treatment outcomes are important to both patients and clinicians in decision-making for treatment for advanced ovarian cancer. Patient and clinician panels were established. RESULTS: Following 2 Delphi rounds, consensus was achieved for 7/11 items in the patient panel and 8/11 items in the clinician panel. Consensus across both panels was achieved for inclusion of both overall survival and progression free survival as important items in the decision-making process, although there remained differences of opinion as to whether these should be presented as relative or absolute values. CONCLUSION: Information needs for treatment decision-making in ovarian cancer differ between and within patient and clinician groups. Whilst overall survival and progression free survival are universally accepted as important data items, decision support tools will need to be nuanced to allow presentation of a range of outcomes and associated probabilities, and in a range of formats, that can be tailored to the preferences of clinician and patients.

Identifying the active ingredients of training interventions for healthcare professionals to promote and support increased levels of physical activity in adults with heart failure: a systematic review.

Heart failure (HF) is characterised by breathlessness and fatigue that impacts negatively on patients' intentions to prioritise physical activity (PA). Healthcare professionals (HCPs) experience challenges when motivating patients to increase PA. It is essential to develop an understanding of how to support HCPs to deliver PA interventions. We aimed to identify active ingredients of HCP training interventions to enable delivery of PA interventions to HF patients. Nine databases were searched. Data were extracted on study characteristics, active ingredients, outcomes, and fidelity measures. Data were synthesised narratively, and a promise analysis was conducted on intervention features. Ten RCTs, which reported a training intervention for HCPs were included (N = 22 HCPs: N = 1,414 HF patients). Two studies reported the use of theory to develop HCP training. Seven behaviour change techniques (BCTs) were identified across the 10 training interventions. The most 'promising' BCTs were 'instruction on how to perform the behaviour' and 'problem solving'. Two studies reported that HCP training interventions had been formally evaluated. Fidelity domains including study design, monitoring and improving the delivery of treatment, intervention delivery, and provider training were infrequently reported. Future research should prioritise theory-informed development and robust evaluation of training interventions for HCPs to enable faithful and quality delivery of patient interventions.

Interventions for improving clinical outcomes and health-related quality-of-life for people living with skeletal dysplasias: an evidence gap map.

PURPOSE: Skeletal dysplasias are rare genetic disorders that are characterized by abnormal development of bone and cartilage. There are multiple medical and non-medical treatments for specific symptoms of skeletal dysplasias e.g. pain, as well as corrective surgical procedures to improve physical functioning. The aim of this paper was to develop an evidence-gap map of treatment options for skeletal dysplasias, and their impact on patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an evidence-gap map to identify the available evidence on the impact of treatment options on people with skeletal dysplasias on clinical outcomes (such as increase in height), and dimensions of health-related quality of life. A structured search strategy was applied to five databases. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion in two stages: titles and abstracts (stage 1), and full text of studies retained at stage 2. RESULTS: 58 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. The included studies covered 12 types of skeletal dysplasia that are non-lethal with severe limb deformities that could result in significant pain and numerous orthopaedic interventions. Most studies reported on the effect of surgical interventions (n = 40, 69%), followed by the effect of treatments on dimensions of health quality-of-life (n = 4, 6.8%) and psychosocial functioning (n = 8, 13.8%). CONCLUSION: Most studies reported on clinical outcomes from surgery for people living with Achondroplasia. Consequently, there are gaps in the literature on the full range of treatment options (including no active treatment), outcomes and the lived experience of people living with other skeletal dysplasias. More research is warranted to examine the impact of treatments on health-related quality-of-life of people living with skeletal dysplasias, including their relatives to enable them to make preference- and valued based decisions about treatment.

Identifying behavioural barriers and facilitators to engaging men in a community-based lifestyle intervention to improve physical and mental health and well-being.

BACKGROUND: There are few community-based lifestyle interventions designed to target physical and mental health of men. We conducted a qualitative focus group study with men to explore their perceived barriers and facilitators to uptake and engagement with interventions designed to improve their physical and mental health and wellbeing. METHODS: A volunteer sampling approach (advertisements posted on a premier league football club's social media) was used to recruit men aged 28 to 65 years who were interested in improving their physical and/or mental health and wellbeing. Focus group discussions were conducted at a local premier league football club to 1) explore men's perceived barriers and facilitators to uptake of community-based interventions; 2) identify health issues considered important to address; 3) obtain participant views on how to best engage men in community-based interventions; and 4) use the findings to inform the development of a multibehavioural complex community-based intervention (called 'The 12th Man'). RESULTS: Six focus group discussions were conducted (duration 27 to 57 min) involving 25 participants (median age 41 years, IQR = 21 years). Thematic analyses generated seven themes: 'Lifestyle behaviours for both mental health and physical health'; 'work pressures are barriers to engaging with lifestyle behaviour change'; previous injuries are barriers to engagement in physical activity and exercise'; personal and peer group relationships impact on lifestyle behaviour change'; relationships between body image and self-confidence on mastery of skills for physical activity and exercise'; building motivation and personalised goal setting'; and 'credible individuals increase uptake and continued engagement with lifestyle behaviour change'. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that a multibehavioural community-based lifestyle intervention designed for men should promote parity of esteem between physical and mental health. It should also acknowledge individual needs and preferences, emotions in the context of goal setting and planning, and be delivered by a knowledgeable and credible professional. The findings will inform the development of a multibehavioural complex community-based intervention ('The 12th Man').

Habitual physical activity levels of adults with heart failure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify habitual physical activity (PA) levels of patients with heart failure (HF) and assess the quality of reporting of device-assessed PA. METHODS: Eight electronic databases were searched up to 17 November 2021. Data on the study and population characteristics, method of PA measurement and PA metrics were extracted. A random-effects meta-analysis (restricted maximum likelihood with Knapp-Hartung SE adjustment) was conducted. RESULTS: Seventy-five studies were included in the review (n=7775 patients with HF). Meta-analysis was restricted to mean steps per day, encompassing 27 studies (n=1720 patients with HF). Pooled mean steps per day were 5040 (95% CI: 4272 to 5807). The 95% prediction interval for mean steps per day in a future study was 1262 to 8817. Meta-regression at the study level revealed that a 10-year increment in the mean age of patients was associated with 1121 fewer steps per day (95% CI: 258 to 1984). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HF are a low-active population. These findings have implications for the way in which PA is targeted in patients with HF, and interventions should focus on addressing the age-related decline observed as well as increasing PA to improve HF symptoms and quality of life. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020167786.

Feasibility, acceptability, and fidelity of Physical Activity Routines After Stroke (PARAS): a multifaceted behaviour change intervention targeting free-living physical activity and sedentary behaviour in community-dwelling adult stroke survivors.

BACKGROUND: Low levels of habitual physical activity and high levels of sedentary behaviour are commonly observed post-stroke. We aimed to assess the feasibility, acceptability and fidelity of a multifaceted, theory- and evidence-informed supported self-management intervention targeting physical activity and sedentary behaviour after stroke: Physical Activity Routines After Stroke (PARAS). METHODS: Adult stroke survivors and healthcare professionals were recruited from North East England stroke services. Stroke survivor physical activity and sedentary behaviour were targeted by a self-management behavioural intervention supported by healthcare professionals trained in intervention delivery. The main outcomes were protocol and intervention acceptability and feasibility and fidelity of intervention delivery. RESULTS: Eleven healthcare professionals (9 physiotherapists; 2 occupational therapists) participated in the study. Stroke survivor recruitment was lower than anticipated (19 versus target of up to 35). The healthcare professional training programme was feasible, with fidelity assessment of delivery supporting this finding. Data completeness was acceptable according to a priori criteria (>60%), except for stroke survivor questionnaire return rate (59%) and interview uptake (52%). No serious adverse events occurred. Healthcare professionals and stroke survivors perceived intervention delivery to be feasible and acceptable with minor modifications highlighted including the potential for earlier delivery in the stroke pathway. CONCLUSIONS: The study protocol and intervention delivery were feasible and acceptable to stroke survivors and healthcare professionals with modifications required before large-scale evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN35516780 . Registered on October 24, 2018.

Effectiveness and active ingredients of social prescribing interventions targeting mental health: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish the effectiveness and active ingredients of UK-based social prescribing interventions targeting mental health and well-being outcomes. DESIGN: Systematic review adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysies guidelines and a published protocol. DATA SOURCES: Nine databases were systematically searched up to March 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Social prescribing interventions in the UK involving adults aged ≥18 years, which reported on mental health outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers extracted data on study characteristics; outcomes; referral pathways; treatment fidelity strategies; person-centredness; intervention development processes and theory-linked behaviour change techniques (BCTs). Data were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: 52 074 records were retrieved by the search, 13 interventions reported across 17 studies were included in this review (N=5036 participants at post-intervention). Fifteen studies were uncontrolled before-and-after designs, one a randomised controlled trial and one a matched groups design. The most frequently reported referral pathway was the link worker model (n=12), followed by direct referrals from community services (n=3). Participants were predominantly working age adults, and were referred for anxiety, depression, social isolation and loneliness. 16 out of 17 studies reported statistically significant improvements in outcomes (mental health, mental well-being, general health, or quality of life). Strategies to enhance treatment fidelity were suboptimal across studies. Only two studies used a specific theoretical framework. A few studies reported engaging service users in codesign (n=2) or usability and/or feasibility testing (n=4). Overall, 22 BCTs were coded across 13 interventions. The most frequently coded BCTs were social support-unspecified (n=11), credible source (n=7) and social support-practical (n=6). CONCLUSIONS: Robust conclusions on the effectiveness of social prescribing for mental health-related outcomes cannot be made. Future research would benefit from comprehensive intervention developmental processes, with reference to appropriate theory, alongside long-term follow-up outcome assessment, using treatment fidelity strategies and a focus on principle of person-centred care. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020167887.

Using intervention mapping to develop and facilitate implementation of a multifaceted behavioural intervention targeting physical activity and sedentary behaviour in stroke survivors: Physical Activity Routines After Stroke (PARAS): intervention development study.

Objectives: The benefits of increased physical activity for stroke survivors include improved function and mental health and wellbeing. However, less than 30% achieve recommended physical activity levels, and high levels of sedentary behaviour are reported. We developed a multifaceted behavioural intervention (and accompanying implementation plan) targeting physical activity and sedentary behaviour of stroke survivors. Design: Intervention Mapping facilitated intervention development. Step 1 involved a systematic review, focus group discussions and a review of care pathways. Step 2 identified social cognitive determinants of behavioural change and behavioural outcomes. Step 3 linked determinants of behavioural outcomes with specific behaviour change techniques (BCTs) to target behaviours of interest. Step 4 involved intervention development informed by steps 1-3. Subsequently, an implementation plan was developed (Step 5) followed by an evaluation plan (Step 6). Setting: Community and secondary care settings, North East England. Participants: Stroke survivors and healthcare professionals (HCPs) working in stroke services. Results: Systematic review findings informed selection of nine 'promising' BCTs (e.g. problem-solving). Focus groups with stroke survivors (n = 18) and HCPs (n = 24) identified the need for an intervention delivered throughout the rehabilitation pathway, tailored to individual needs with training for HCPs delivering the intervention. Intervention delivery was considered feasible within local stroke services. The target behaviours for the intervention were levels of physical activity and sedentary behaviour in adult stroke survivors. Assessment of acceptability and usability with 11 HCPs and 21 stroke survivors/relatives identified issues with self-monitoring tools and the need for a physical activity repository of local services' and training for HCPs with feedback on intervention delivery. A feasibility study protocol was designed to evaluate the intervention. Conclusions: A systematic development process using intervention mapping resulted in a multi-faceted evidence- and theory-informed intervention (Physical Activity Routines After Stroke - PARAS) for delivery by community stroke rehabilitation teams.

Home-based exercise for adults with overweight or obesity: A rapid review.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the ability of people globally to consistently engage in their typical physical activity and exercise behaviour, contributing to the rising number of people living with overweight and obesity. The imposed government lockdowns and quarantine periods saw an increase in social media influencers delivering their own home-based exercise programmes, but these are unlikely to be an evidence-based, efficacious, long-term solution to tackle sedentary behaviour and increase physical activity. This rapid review aims to conceptualise home-based exercise and physical activity programmes, by extracting relevant programme characteristics regarding the availability of evidence and effectiveness of home-based exercise programmes. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, of which there were varied reports of significant positive effects of the exercise programme on weight management and related outcomes. The two most common measures were Body Mass Index and body mass, as of which almost all reported a trend of post intervention reduction. Some programmes reported qualitative data, identifying barriers to physical activity and preferred programme components, highlighting a need to consider factors outside of physiological measures. The findings provide guidance and direction for the development of future home-based physical activity and exercise programmes for adults living with overweight and obesity.

The feasibility and acceptability of a psychosocial intervention to support people with dementia with Lewy bodies and family care partners.

OBJECTIVES: Psychosocial support for people with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and family care partners is frequently lacking, despite the need expressed by those with lived experience. Our objective was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of an intervention designed to build coping capability. DESIGN: The design was non-randomised with all participants receiving the intervention. SETTING: The setting was a Memory Assessment and Management Service in the Northeast of England. PARTICIPANTS: Participants comprised 19 dyads consisting of a person with DLB and a family care partner. INTERVENTION: The intervention was group-based, with weekly sessions attended for up to four successive weeks. It was informed by Social Cognitive Theory. MEASUREMENTS: Data were collected on recruitment, attendance and attrition, self-efficacy, mood, stress and participant experience. RESULTS: Recruitment was achieved with minimal attrition and three successive groups were delivered. Care partners felt more in control and able to cope in at least 3 of 13 areas with 73% feeling this way in eight or more areas. Three themes were identified from post-intervention interviews: people like us, outcomes from being a group member and intervention design. CONCLUSIONS: A DLB-specific group intervention is acceptable to people with DLB and family care partners, and recruitment is feasible within a specialist service. Participation may enhance understanding of this condition and reduce social isolation. It may improve care partners' coping capability particularly if targeted towards those with low prior understanding of DLB and more stress. Means of evaluating outcomes for people with DLB need further development.

'You can't start a car when there's no petrol left': a qualitative study of patient, family and clinician perspectives on implantable cardioverter defibrillator deactivation.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the attitudes towards implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) deactivation and initiation of deactivation discussions among patients, relatives and clinicians. DESIGN: A multiphase qualitative study consisting of in situ hospital ICD clinic observations, and semistructured interviews of clinicians, patients and relatives. Data were analysed using a constant comparative approach. SETTING: One tertiary and two district general hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: We completed 38 observations of hospital consultations prior to ICD implantation, and 80 interviews with patients, family members and clinicians between 2013 and 2015. Patients were recruited from preimplantation to postdeactivation. Clinicians included cardiologists, cardiac physiologists, heart failure nurses and palliative care professionals. RESULTS: Four key themes were identified from the data: the current status of deactivation discussions; patients' perceptions of deactivation; who should take responsibility for deactivation discussions and decisions; and timing of deactivation discussions. We found that although patients and doctors recognised the importance of advance care planning, including ICD deactivation at an early stage in the patient journey, this was often not reflected in practice. The most appropriate clinician to take the lead was thought to be dependent on the context, but could include any appropriately trained member of the healthcare team. It was suggested that deactivation should be raised preimplantation and regularly reviewed. Identification of trigger points postimplantation for deactivation discussions may help ensure that these are timely and inappropriate shocks are avoided. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for early, ongoing and evolving discussion between ICD recipients and clinicians regarding the eventual need for ICD deactivation. The most appropriate clinician to instigate deactivation discussions is likely to vary between patients and models of care. Reminders at key trigger points, and routine discussion of deactivation at implantation and during advance care planning could prevent distressing experiences for both the patient and their family at the end of life.

Exploring the potential for social prescribing in pre-hospital emergency and urgent care: A qualitative study.

There is a sustained increase in demand for emergency and urgent care services in England. The NHS Long Term Plan aims to reduce the burden on emergency hospital services through changing how pre-hospital care operates, including increased delivery of urgent care. Given the recognised potential of social prescribing to address wider determinants of health and reduce costs in other settings, this study aimed to understand the role that social prescribing can play in pre-hospital emergency and urgent care from the perspectives of staff. Semi-structured interviews (n = 15) and a focus group (n = 3) were conducted with clinical staff (n = 14) and non-clinical health advisors (n = 4) from an English Ambulance Service covering emergency (999) and non-emergency (111) calls. Data were analysed using a pre-defined framework: awareness of social prescribing; potential cohorts suitable for social prescribing; and determinants of social prescribing. Awareness and knowledge of social prescribing was limited, though when social prescribing was explained to participants they almost universally recognised its benefits for their role. Social prescribing was considered to be most beneficial to those calling for reasons relating to mental health, loneliness or social isolation, in particular older people and frequent users of 999 and 111 services. Determinants of social prescribing were identified across the micro (patient and staff acceptability of social prescribing), meso (triage and referral pathways) and macro (commissioning and funding) levels of analysis. This is the first empirical study to explore social prescribing in pre-hospital emergency and urgent care services, which suggests that it has potential to improve quality of care at the point of people accessing these services. There is a pressing need to address the micro, macro and meso level determinants identified within this study, in order to support staff within pre-hospital emergency and urgent care services to socially prescribe.

Digital Intervention With Lifestyle Coach Support to Target Dietary and Physical Activity Behaviors of Adults With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Systematic Development Process of VITALISE Using Intervention Mapping.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is linked to excessive calorie consumption, physical inactivity, and being overweight. Patients with NAFLD can halt or decelerate progression and potentially reverse their condition by changing their lifestyle behavior. International guidelines recommend the use of lifestyle interventions; however, there remains a discordance between published guidelines and clinical practice. This is primarily due to a lack of NAFLD-specific interventions to support weight loss and improve liver function. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to use intervention mapping to systematically develop a digital intervention to support patients with NAFLD to initiate and maintain changes in their dietary and physical activity behavior to promote weight loss. METHODS: Intervention mapping consisted of 6 steps: step 1 involved a needs assessment with primary and secondary health care professionals (HCPs) and patients with NAFLD; step 2 involved identification of the social cognitive determinants of change and behavioral outcomes of the intervention; step 3 involved linking social cognitive determinants of behavioral outcomes with behavior change techniques to effectively target dietary and physical activity behavior; step 4 involved the development of a prototype digital intervention that integrated the strategies from step 3, and the information content was identified as important for improving knowledge and skills from steps 1 and 2; step 5 involved the development of an implementation plan with a digital provider of lifestyle behavior change programs to patients with NAFLD using their delivery platform and lifestyle coaches; and step 6 involved piloting the digital intervention with patients to obtain data on access, usability, and content. RESULTS: A digital intervention was developed, consisting of 8 modules; self-regulatory tools; and provision of telephone support by trained lifestyle coaches to help facilitate behavioral intention, enactment, and maintenance. A commercial provider of digital lifestyle behavior change programs enrolled 16 patients with NAFLD to the prototype intervention for 12 consecutive weeks. A total of 11 of the 16 participants successfully accessed the intervention and continued to engage with the content following initial log-in (on average 4 times over the piloting period). The most frequently accessed modules were welcome to the program, understanding NAFLD, and food and NAFLD. Goal setting and self-monitoring tools were accessed on 22 occasions (4 times per tool on average). A total of 3 out of 11 participants requested access to a lifestyle coach. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention mapping provided a systematic methodological framework to guide a theory- and evidence-informed co-design intervention development process for patients and HCPs. The digital intervention with remote support by a lifestyle coach was acceptable to patients with NAFLD and feasible to deliver. Issues with initial access, optimization of information content, and promoting the value of remote lifestyle coach support require further development ahead of future research to establish intervention effectiveness.

Content Analysis of Patient Safety Incident Reports for Older Adult Patient Transfers, Handovers, and Discharges: Do They Serve Organizations, Staff, or Patients?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to analyze content of incident reports during patient transitions in the context of care of older people, cardiology, orthopedics, and stroke. METHODS: A structured search strategy identified incident reports involving patient transitions (March 2014-August 2014, January 2015-June 2015) within 2 National Health Service Trusts (in upper and lower quartiles of incident reports/100 admissions) in care of older people, cardiology, orthopedics, and stroke. Content analysis identified the following: incident classifications; active failures; latent conditions; patient/relative involvement; and evidence of individual or organizational learning. Reported harm was interpreted with reference to National Reporting and Learning System criteria. RESULTS: A total 278 incident reports were analyzed. Fourteen incident classifications were identified, with pressure ulcers the modal category (n = 101,36%), followed by falls (n = 32, 12%), medication (n = 31, 11%), and documentation (n = 29, 10%). Half (n = 139, 50%) of incident reports related to interunit/department/team transfers. Latent conditions were explicit in 33 (12%) reports; most frequently, these related to inadequate resources/staff and concomitant time pressures (n = 13). Patient/family involvement was explicit in 61 (22%) reports. Patient well-being was explicit in 24 (9%) reports. Individual and organizational learning was evident in 3% and 7% of reports, respectively. Reported harm was significantly lower than coder-interpreted harm (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident report quality was suboptimal for individual and organizational learning. Underreporting level of harm suggests reporter bias, which requires reducing as much as practicable. System-level interventions are warranted to encourage use of staff reflective skills, emphasizing joint ownership of incidents. Co-producing incident reports with other clinicians involved in the transition and patients/relatives could optimize organizational learning.

Updating estimates of the number of UK stroke patients eligible for endovascular thrombectomy: incorporating recent evidence to facilitate service planning.

Introduction: Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a highly effective treatment for acute ischaemic stroke due to large arterial occlusion (LAO). To support decisions about service provision, we previously estimated the annual UK population eligible for EVT as ∼10% of stroke admissions. Since then, several trials have produced evidence that could alter these figures. We update our estimates considering information from studies and trials reporting 2018-2021 on incidence, presentation time and stroke severity and consider the possible impact of predicted demographic changes in the next 10-20 years. Patients and Methods: We produce an updated decision tree describing the EVT eligible population for UK stroke admissions. One-way sensitivity analyses (using upper and lower confidence intervals for estimates at each branch of our decision tree) were used to identify where further research evidence is necessary to increase certainty around estimates for numbers of EVT eligible patients. Results: The updated estimate for the number of UK stroke patients eligible for EVT annually was between 10,020 (no advanced imaging in early presenting patients) and 9,580 (advanced imaging in all early presenting patients), which compared with our estimates in 2017 is a minimal reduction. One-way sensitivity analyses established that enhanced evidence about eligibility for milder strokes, ASPECTS scores and pre-stroke disability are offset by evidence regarding a lower incidence of LAO. Importantly, predicted increases in life expectancy by 2040 may increase thrombectomy need by 40%. Discussion: Information from additional randomised trials published during 2018-2020 with updated estimates of LAO prevalence had a minimal impact on overall estimates of stroke patients eligible for EVT in the UK. Ongoing research into the benefits of EVT for patients with mild stroke or European Stroke Journal For Peer Review lower ASPECTS scores has the potential to increase the estimates of the eligible population; future need for EVT will increase with the ageing population. Conclusion: Our updated analyses show overall numbers eligible little changed, but evidence from ongoing trials and demographic changes have the potential to increase the need for EVT significantly.

Secondary transfer of emergency stroke patients eligible for mechanical thrombectomy by air in rural England: economic evaluation and considerations.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is a time-sensitive emergency procedure for patients who had ischaemic stroke leading to improved health outcomes. Health systems need to ensure that MT is delivered to as many patients as quickly as possible. Using decision modelling, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of secondary transfer by helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) compared with ground emergency medical services (GEMS) of rural patients eligible for MT in England. METHODS: The model consisted of (1) a short-run decision tree with two branches, representing secondary transfer transportation strategies and (2) a long-run Markov model for a theoretical population of rural patients with a confirmed ischaemic stroke. Strategies were compared by lifetime costs: quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost per QALY gained and net monetary benefit. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored uncertainty around parameter values. RESULTS: We used the base case of early-presenting (<6 hours to arterial puncture) patient aged 75 years who had stroke to compare HEMS and GEMS. This produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28 027 when a 60 min reduction in travel time was assumed. Scenario analyses showed the importance of the reduction in travel time and futile transfers in lowering ICERs. For late presenting (>6 hours to arterial puncture), ground transportation is the dominant strategy. CONCLUSION: Our model indicates that using HEMS to transfer patients who had stroke eligible for MT from remote hospitals in England may be cost-effective when: travel time is reduced by at least 60 min compared with GEMS, and a £30 000/QALY threshold is used for decision-making. However, several other logistic considerations may impact on the use of air transportation.

Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy and Mortality After Stroke in England From 2007 to 2018: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Swallowing difficulties are common poststroke. National clinical guidelines recommend feeding by percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) when oral nutrition cannot be maintained although survival benefit might be short term. It is unknown whether a decade of general care improvements have impacted upon PEG provision and outcomes. This retrospective cohort study examined PEG placement and mortality poststroke in England. METHODS: National Health Service Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality data between April 2007 and March 2018 were linked to identify all admissions in England with stroke-related International Classification of Diseases codes (I61, I63, and I64)±PEG insertion and deaths at 3, 6, and 12 months. Linear and logistic regression examined trends over time and mortality. RESULTS: Patients (923 236) with stroke underwent 17 532 PEG procedures (mean rate 1.9%), with an average reduction of -27 procedures/year ([95% CI, -56 to 1.4]; P=0.06) despite an average increase of 1804 stroke admissions/year. Mortality decreased among cases without a PEG procedure: -190 deaths/year ([95% CI, -276 to -104]; P<0.001) at 3 months, -167 deaths/year ([95% CI, -235 to -98]; P<0.001) at 6 months and -103 deaths/year ([95% CI, -157 to -50]; P<0.01) at 12 months; and also reduced following PEG insertion: -28 deaths/year ([95% CI, -35 to -20]; P<0.001) at 3 months, -33 deaths/year ([95% CI, -46 to -20]; P<0.01) at 6 months and -30 deaths/year ([95% CI, -48 to -13]; P<0.01) at 12 months. With all years combined, PEG insertion was weakly associated with reduced mortality at 3 months (odds ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.90-0.97]) but significantly higher mortality at 6 months (odds ratio, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.64-1.75]) and 12 months (odds ratio, 2.14 [95% CI, 2.08-2.20]). CONCLUSIONS: PEG procedures and subsequent deaths have decreased in the context of general mortality reductions after hospitalization for stroke, but survival at 6 and 12 months remains significantly worse for patients with PEG placement.

COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: To describe epidemiological data on cases of COVID-19 and the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in the United Kingdom (UK), and the subsequent policy and technological response to the pandemic, including impact on healthcare, business and the economy. METHODS: Epidemiological, business and economic data were extracted from official government sources covering the period 31st January to 13th August 2020; healthcare system data up to end of June 2019. RESULTS: UK-wide COVID-19 cases and deaths were 313,798 and 46,706 respectively (472 cases and 70 deaths per 100,000 population) by 12th August. There were regional variations in England, with London and North West (756 and 666 cases per 100,000 population respectively) disproportionately affected compared with other regions. As of 11th August, 13,618,470 tests had been conducted in the UK. Increased risk of mortality was associated with age (≥60 years), gender (male) and BAME groups. Since onset of the pandemic, emergency department attendance, primary care utilisation and cancer referrals and inpatient/outpatient referrals have declined; emergency ambulance and NHS111 calls increased. Business sectors most impacted are the arts, entertainment and recreation, followed by accommodation and food services. Government interventions aimed at curtailing the business and economic impact have been implemented, but applications for state benefits have increased. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 on the UK population, health system and economy has been profound. More data are needed to implement the optimal policy and technological responses to preventing further spikes in COVID-19 cases, and to inform strategic planning to manage future pandemics.