Dummy run for planning of isotoxic dose-escalated radiation therapy for glioblastoma used in the PRIDE trial (NOA-28; ARO-2024-01; AG-NRO-06).

Background: The PRIDE trial (NOA-28; ARO-2024-01; AG-NRO-06; NCT05871021) is designed to determine whether a dose escalation with 75.0 Gy in 30 fractions can enhance the median overall survival (OS) in patients with methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) promotor unmethylated glioblastoma compared to historical median OS rates, while being isotoxic to historical cohorts through the addition of concurrent bevacizumab (BEV). To ensure protocol-compliant irradiation planning with all study centers, a dummy run was planned and the plan quality was evaluated. Methods: A suitable patient case was selected and the computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and O-(2-[18F]fluoroethyl)-L-tyrosine (FET) positron emission tomography (PET) contours were made available. Participants at the various intended study sites performed radiation planning according to the PRIDE clinical trial protocol. The treatment plans and dose grids were uploaded as Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) files to a cloud-based platform. Plan quality and protocol adherence were analyzed using a standardized checklist, scorecards and indices such as Dice Score (DSC) and Hausdorff Distance (HD). Results: Median DSC was 0.89, 0.90, 0.88 for PTV60, PTV60ex (planning target volume receiving 60.0 Gy for the standard and the experimental plan, respectively) and PTV75 (PTV receiving 75.0 Gy in the experimental plan), respectively. Median HD values were 17.0 mm, 13.9 mm and 12.1 mm, respectively. These differences were also evident in the volumes: The PTV60 had a volume range of 219.1-391.3 cc (median: 261.9 cc) for the standard plans, while the PTV75 volumes for the experimental plans ranged from 71.5-142.7 cc (median: 92.3 cc). The structures with the largest deviations in Dice score were the pituitary gland (median 0.37, range 0.00-0.69) and the right lacrimal gland (median 0.59, range 0.42-0.78). Conclusions: The deviations revealed the necessity of systematic trainings with appropriate feedback before the start of clinical trials in radiation oncology and the constant monitoring of protocol compliance throw-out the study. Trial registration: NCT05871021.

Status epilepticus in patients with brain tumors and metastases: A multicenter cohort study of 208 patients and literature review.

OBJECTIVE: Brain tumors and metastases account for approximately 10% of all status epilepticus (SE) cases. This study described the clinical characteristics, treatment, and short- and long-term outcomes of this population. METHODS: This retrospective, multi-center cohort study analyzed all brain tumor patients treated for SE at the university hospitals of Frankfurt and Marburg between 2011 and 2017. RESULTS: The 208 patients (mean 61.5 ± 14.7 years of age; 51% male) presented with adult-type diffuse gliomas (55.8%), metastatic entities (25.5%), intracranial extradural tumors (14.4%), or other tumors (4.3%). The radiological criteria for tumor progression were evidenced in 128 (61.5%) patients, while 57 (27.4%) were newly diagnosed with tumor at admission and 113 (54.3%) had refractory SE. The mean hospital length of stay (LOS) was 14.8 days (median 12.0, range 1-57), 171 (82.2%) patients required intensive care (mean LOS 8.9 days, median 5, range 1-46), and 44 (21.2%) were administered mechanical ventilation. All patients exhibited significant functional status decline (modified Rankin Scale) post-SE at discharge (p < 0.001). Mortality at discharge was 17.3% (n = 36), with the greatest occurring in patients with metastatic disease (26.4%, p = 0.031) and those that met the radiological criteria for tumor progression (25%, p < 0.001). Long-term mortality at one year (65.9%) was highest in those diagnosed with adult-type diffuse gliomas (68.1%) and metastatic disease (79.2%). Refractory status epilepticus cases showed lower survival rates than non-refractory SE patients (log-rank p = 0.02) and those with signs of tumor progression (log-rank p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: SE occurrence contributed to a decline in functional status in all cases, regardless of tumor type, tumor progression status, and SE refractoriness, while long-term mortality was increased in those with malignant tumor entities, tumor progressions, and refractory SE. SE prevention may preserve functional status and improve survival in individuals with brain tumors.

Prioritization and Resource Allocation in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Recommendations for Colorectal and Pancreatic Cancer in Germany.

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a scarcity of resources with various effects on the care of cancer patients. This paper provides an English summary of a German guideline on prioritization and resource allocation for colorectal and pancreatic cancer in the context of the pandemic. Based on a selective literature review as well as empirical and ethical analyses, the research team of the CancerCOVID Consortium drafted recommendations for prioritizing diagnostic and treatment measures for both entities. The final version of the guideline received consent from the executive boards of nine societies of the Association of Scientific Medical Societies in Germany (AWMF), 20 further professional organizations and 22 other experts from various disciplines as well as patient representatives. The guiding principle for the prioritization of decisions is the minimization of harm. Prioritization decisions to fulfill this overall goal should be guided by (1) the urgency relevant to avoid or reduce harm, (2) the likelihood of success of the diagnostic or therapeutic measure advised, and (3) the availability of alternative treatment options. In the event of a relevant risk of harm as a result of prioritization, these decisions should be made by means of a team approach. Gender, age, disability, ethnicity, origin, and other social characteristics, such as social or insurance status, as well as the vehemence of a patient's treatment request and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status should not be used as prioritization criteria. The guideline provides concrete recommendations for (1) diagnostic procedures, (2) surgical procedures for cancer, and (3) systemic treatment and radiotherapy in patients with colorectal or pancreatic cancer within the context of the German healthcare system.

Future direction of total neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer.

Despite therapeutic advancements, disease-free survival and overall survival of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer have not improved in most trials as a result of distant metastases. For treatment decision-making, both long-term oncologic outcomes and impact on quality-of-life indices should be considered (for example, bowel function). Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT), comprised of chemotherapy and radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, is now a standard treatment approach in patients with features of high-risk disease to prevent local recurrence and distant metastases. In selected patients who have a clinical complete response, subsequent surgery might be avoided through non-operative management, but patients who do not respond to TNT have a poor prognosis. Refined molecular characterization might help to predict which patients would benefit from TNT and non-operative management. Specifically, integrated analysis of spatiotemporal multi-omics using artificial intelligence and machine learning is promising. Three prospective trials of TNT and non-operative management in Japan, the USA and Germany are collaborating to better understand drivers of response to TNT. Here, we address the future direction for TNT.

Differences in the Course of CD4 and CD8 Cells After Chemoradiotherapy in People Living with HIV with Anal Cancer.

Incidence of anal carcinoma (AC) in people living with HIV (PLWH) is increased compared to the general population. Adverse effects of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on the immune system are associated with a significant detrimental prognosis on overall survival in patients receiving CRT for solid tumors. The aim of this study was to evaluate immunological factors, in particular the differences in recovery of CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts before and after CRT for AC in PLWH. Retrospective single-center chart review extraction to analyze immunological data collected from PLWH with AC; descriptive statistics were used. Thirty-six PLWH with histologically proven AC were included in the analysis. Absolute CD4 cell count 60 months after CRT was 67.2% of the value at the beginning of CRT, whereas the CD8 cell count reached 82.3%. These differences were statistically significant (p = .048), whereas CD4/CD8-ratio remained stable. The findings of the presented study regarding CD4+ and CD8+ cell recovery after CRT are congruent with results from prior studies in non-HIV infected patients. Although not reaching the level of prior CRT T cell numbers, the ability to generate CD8+ cells seems to be better recovered, while CD4+ regeneration is more impaired. These observations are best explained by faster recovery of CD8+ cells via thymic-independent pathways, which are not available for regeneration of CD4+ cells. Further studies with larger numbers of patients are required to analyze the specific CD4+ and CD8+ cell subsets.

Early Efficacy End Points in Neoadjuvant Rectal Cancer Trials: Surrogacy Revisited.

Trial-level surrogacy is critical before early response endpoints are used to approve new therapies.

Gliomatosis cerebri (GC) growth pattern: A single-center analysis of clinical, histological, and molecular characteristics of GC and non-GC glioblastoma.

Background: The biological understanding of glioblastoma (GB) with gliomatosis cerebri (GC) pattern is poor due to the absence of GC-specific studies. Here, we aimed to identify molecular or clinical parameters that drive GC growth. Methods: From our methylome database of IDH (isocitrate dehydrogenase)-wildtype GB, we identified 158 non-GC and 65 GC cases. GC cases were subdivided into diffuse-infiltrative (subtype 1), multifocal (subtype 2), or tumors with 1 solid mass (subtype 3). We compared clinical, histological, and molecular parameters and conducted a reference-free tumor deconvolution of DNA methylation data based on latent methylation components (LMC). Results: GC subtype 1 less frequently showed contrast-enhancing tumors, and more frequently lacked morphological GB criteria despite displaying GB DNA methylation profile. However, the tumor deconvolution did not deliver a specific LMC cluster for either of the GC subtypes. Employing the reference-based analysis MethylCIBERSORT, we did not identify significant differences in tumor cell composition. The majority of both GC and non-GC patients received radiochemotherapy as first-line treatment, but there was a major imbalance for resection. The entire GC cohort had significantly shorter overall survival (OS) and time to treatment failure (TTF) than the non-GC cohort. However, when filtering for cases in which only stereotactic biopsy was performed, the comparison of OS and TTF lost statistical significance. Conclusions: Our study offers clinically relevant information by demonstrating a similar outcome for GB with GC growth pattern in the surgically matched analysis. The limited number of cases in the GC subgroups encourages the validation of our DNA methylation analysis in larger cohorts.

Prevalence and implications of significance testing for baseline covariate imbalance in randomised cancer clinical trials: The Table 1 Fallacy.

BACKGROUND: The 'Table 1 Fallacy' refers to the unsound use of significance testing for comparing the distributions of baseline variables between randomised groups to draw erroneous conclusions about balance or imbalance. We performed a cross-sectional study of the Table 1 Fallacy in phase III oncology trials. METHODS: From ClinicalTrials.gov, 1877 randomised trials were screened. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated predictors of the Table 1 Fallacy. RESULTS: A total of 765 randomised controlled trials involving 553,405 patients were analysed. The Table 1 Fallacy was observed in 25% of trials (188 of 765), with 3% of comparisons deemed significant (59 of 2353), approximating the typical 5% type I error assertion probability. Application of trial-level multiplicity corrections reduced the rate of significant findings to 0.3% (six of 2345 tests). Factors associated with lower odds of the Table 1 Fallacy included industry sponsorship (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.18-0.47; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001), larger trial size (≥795 versus <280 patients; aOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.19-0.53; multiplicity-corrected P = 0.0008), and publication in a European versus American journal (aOR 0.06, 95% CI 0.03-0.13; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the persistence of the Table 1 Fallacy in contemporary oncology randomised controlled trials, with one of every four trials testing for baseline differences after randomisation. Significance testing is a suboptimal method for identifying unsound randomisation procedures and may encourage misleading inferences. Journal-level enforcement is a possible strategy to help mitigate this fallacy.

Overall Survival After Treatment Failure Among Patients With Rectal Cancer.

Importance: Oncologic outcomes among patients with rectal cancer after developing local recurrence and/or distant metastases remain poorly studied. Objective: To analyze the trend of overall survival after treatment failure for patients with rectal cancer within three consecutive phase 2 or 3 trials of the German Rectal Cancer Study Group. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of 3 randomized phase 2 or 3 trials (CAO/ARO/AIO-94, -04, and -12 trials, conducted in Germany) that included 1948 patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma. The CAO/ARO/AIO-94 trial recruited patients between February 1995 and September 2002, the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial recruited patients between July 2006 and February 2010, and the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial recruited patients between June 2015 and January 2018. Statistical analysis was conducted between September 2022 and March 2023. Exposures: A total of 119 of 391 patients in the CAO/ARO/AIO-94 trial group A, 295 of 1236 patients in the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial, and 69 of 306 in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial experienced treatment failure (R2 resection or local recurrence or distant metastases) and were included in further analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Characteristics of treatment failure and overall survival were assessed in all 3 trial cohorts. Results: Of the 1948 patients treated in the 3 trials, 15 were excluded because of missing data. Of the remaining 1933 patients (median age, 62.5 years [range, 19-84 years]; 1363 men [71%] and 570 women [29%]) with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma (cT3 or 4 or cN+) treated within 3 consecutive clinical trials, 483 experienced treatment failure and were analyzed. After a median follow-up of 36 months (IQR, 24-51 months) for all patients, overall survival after treatment failure was significantly improved in the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial (at 3 years, 44% [IQR, 37%-51%]; hazard ratio [HR], 0.61 [95% CI, 0.47-0.79]) and further improved in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial (at 3 years, 73% [IQR, 60%-87%]; HR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.18-0.54]) compared with the CAO/ARO/AIO-94 trial (at 3 years, 30% [IQR, 22%-39%]) (both P < .001). Distant metastasis was the main reason for treatment failure throughout a 5-year follow-up (range, 67%-87%), and the relative risk for treatment failure was highest in the first 18 months in all 3 trials. ypTNM stage was significantly associated with the risk and time interval to treatment failure. Improvement in overall survival after treatment failure was independent of sex. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study suggests that advancements in salvage strategies during the past decades have likely improved overall survival among patients with rectal cancer who experienced treatment failure.

Radiotherapy dose escalation using endorectal brachytherapy in elderly and frail patients with rectal cancer unsuitable for surgery: Lessons from studies in fit patients and future perspectives.

Epidemiological data indicate that more than 50 % of patients with newly-diagnosed rectal cancer are older than 70 years, with rising numbers expected over the next decades. Treatment decision-making is challenging in elderly and frail patients with rectal cancer, whereas standardized treatment guidelines for this patient cohort are lacking. Elderly and frail rectal cancer patients are often considered by surgeons as unfit to undergo radical surgery as the risk of surgical complications and postoperative mortality rises with increasing age and comorbidity. Furthermore, these patients often receive no treatment at all, resulting in local and/or systemic disease progression with associated symptoms and impaired quality of life (QoL). Recent data from randomized trials in young fit patients with early stage rectal cancer indicate that RT dose escalation can be safely delivered using external beam (chemo)radiotherapy (EBRT) followed by endoluminal radiotherapeutic modalities, such as contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) or high-dose rate endorectal brachytherapy (HDR-BT). However, prospective studies testing this therapeutic concept in elderly and frail patients remain limited. Here, we review the current evidence in the epidemiology and the management of elderly and frail patients with rectal cancer. We summarize the potential of RT dose escalation to achieve long-term local control of the primary tumour, prevent disease-related morbidity, improve QoL and even organ preservation. Future perspectives and open questions will be discussed as well.

Clinical outcome after total neoadjuvant treatment (CAO/ARO/AIO-12) versus intensified neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment (CAO/ARO/AIO-04) a comparison between two multicenter randomized phase II/III trials.

BACKGROUND: Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) can enhance local tumor regression, but its survival benefits compared to intensified chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (CT) remain unclear. METHODS: This is a secondary comparison between 607 patients treated with intensified 5-FU/Oxaliplatin neoadjuvant CRT and adjuvant CT within the experimental arm of the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 phase III trial, and 306 patients treated with TNT within the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 phase II trial. Comparison between clinical-pathological characteristics, surgical quality, and post-surgical complications were analyzed using the Pearson's Chi-squared or Mann-Whitney U test. Oncological outcome was examined with log-rank, Gray's test, and multivariate cox regression. In addition, further subgroup analyses and propensity score matching were performed to optimize the balance of baseline covariates. FINDINGS: Patients treated with CRT followed by consolidation CT had a significantly higher rate of pathological complete remission (pCR) compared to patients treated within the experimental arm of the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial (25.3 % vs 17.3 %, P = 0.04). Post-surgical complications were less common in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial. After a median follow-up of 46 months, clinical outcome did not differ significantly in the overall cohort, in any subgroup or after propensity score matching. In multivariate analysis, disease-free survival (DFS) was similar between the experimental arm of the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial and treatments arms of the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial (vs arm A: HR 0.92 [95 % CI 0.62-1.37], P = 0.69; vs arm B: HR 1.06 [95 % CI 0.72-1.58], P = 0.76). INTERPRETATION: Notwithstanding the limitations of intertrial comparison, TNT did not improve long term oncological outcome in our study compared to the intensified neoadjuvant CRT and adjuvant CT treatment in the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial. Improved response rates after TNT offers an attractive option to explore organ preservation in selective patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Acute toxicities of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with intensified chemoradiotherapy within the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial: comparing conventional versus VMAT planning at a single center.

In locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is regarded as standard treatment. We assessed acute toxicities in patients receiving conventional 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-RT) and correlated them with dosimetric parameters after re-planning with volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Patients were randomized within the multicenter CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial and received 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions and simultaneous chemotherapy with fluorouracil and oxaliplatin. Organs at risk (OAR) were contoured in a standardized approach. Acute toxicities and dose volume histogram parameters of 3D-RT plans were compared to retrospectively calculated VMAT plans. From 08/2015 to 01/2018, 35 patients with LARC were treated at one study center. Thirty-four patients were analyzed of whom 1 (3%) was UICC stage II and 33 (97%) patients were UICC stage III. Grade 3 acute toxicities occurred in 5 patients (15%). Patients with acute grade 1 cystitis (n = 9) had significantly higher Dmean values for bladder (29.4 Gy vs. 25.2 Gy, p < 0.01) compared to patients without bladder toxicities. Acute diarrhea was associated with small bowel volume (grade 2: 870.1 ccm vs. grade 0-1: 647.3 ccm; p < 0.01) and with the irradiated volumes V5 to V50. Using VMAT planning, we could reduce mean doses and irradiated volumes for all OAR: Dmean bladder (21.9 Gy vs. 26.3 Gy, p < 0.01), small bowel volumes V5-V45 (p < 0.01), Dmean anal sphincter (34.6 Gy vs. 35.6 Gy, p < 0.01) and Dmean femoral heads (right 11.4 Gy vs. 25.9 Gy, left 12.5 Gy vs. 26.6 Gy, p < 0.01). Acute small bowel and bladder toxicities were dose and volume dependent. Dose and volume sparing for all OAR could be achieved through VMAT planning and might result in less acute toxicities.

Prognostic Impact of Caspase-8, CDK9 and Phospho-CDK9 (Thr 186) Expression in Patients with Uterine Cervical Cancer Treated with Definitive Chemoradiation and Brachytherapy.

Introduction: After primary platinum-based chemoradiation of locally advanced uterine cervical cancer, a substantial proportion of women present with persistent, recurrent or metastatic disease, indicating an unmet need for biomarker development. Methods: We evaluated the clinical records of 69 cervical cancer patients (Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics, FIGO Stage > IB3) who were subjected to definitive CRT. Immunohistochemical scoring of caspase-8, cyclin dependent kinase 9 (CDK9) and phosphorylated (phospho-)CDK9 (threonine (Thr) 186) was performed on pretreatment samples and correlated with the histopathological and clinical endpoints, including relapse-free survival (RFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Results: Lower levels of caspase-8 were more prevalent in patients with a higher T-stage (p = 0.002) and a higher FIGO stage (p = 0.003), and were significantly correlated with CDK9 expression (p = 0.018) and inversely with pCDK9 detection (p = 0.014). Increased caspase-8 levels corresponded to improved RFS (p = 0.005), DMFS (p = 0.038) and CSS (p = 0.017) in the univariate analyses. Low CDK9 expression was associated with worse RFS (p = 0.008), CSS (p = 0.015) and OS (p = 0.007), but not DMFS (p = 0.083), and remained a significant prognosticator for RFS (p = 0.003) and CSS (p = 0.009) in the multivariate analyses. Furthermore, low pCDK9 staining was significantly associated with superior RFS (p = 0.004) and DMFS (p = 0.001), and increased CSS (p = 0.022), and remained significant for these endpoints in the multivariate analyses. Conclusion: Increased caspase-8 and CDK9 levels correlate with improved disease-related outcomes in cervical cancer patients treated with CRT, whereas elevated pCDK9 levels predict worse survival in this patient population.

Image-guided radiotherapy in an orthotopic mouse model of rectal cancer.

Radiobiology research in rectal cancer has been limited to cell lines, patient-derived organoids (PDOs), or xenografts. Here, we describe a protocol which recapitulates more efficiently the complex contributions of the tumor microenvironment. This approach establishes a preclinical mouse model of rectal cancer by intrarectal transplantation of genetically modified organoids into immunocompetent mice followed by precise image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) of organoid-induced tumors. This model represents a useful platform to study the cellular and molecular determinants of therapy resistance in rectal cancer. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Nicolas et al. (2022).

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Toxicity of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer in the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 Phase III Trial.

Background: There is a lack of predictive models to identify patients at risk of high neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT)-related acute toxicity in rectal cancer. Patient and Methods: The CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial was divided into a development (n = 831) and a validation (n = 405) cohort. Using a best subset selection approach, predictive models for grade 3−4 acute toxicity were calculated including clinicopathologic characteristics, pretreatment blood parameters, and baseline results of quality-of-life questionnaires and evaluated using the area under the ROC curve. The final model was internally and externally validated. Results: In the development cohort, 155 patients developed grade 3−4 toxicities due to CRT. In the final evaluation, 15 parameters were included in the logistic regression models using best-subset selection. BMI, gender, and emotional functioning remained significant for predicting toxicity, with a discrimination ability adjusted for overfitting of AUC 0.687. The odds of experiencing high-grade toxicity were 3.8 times higher in the intermediate and 6.4 times higher in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). Rates of toxicity (p = 0.001) and low treatment adherence (p = 0.007) remained significantly different in the validation cohort, whereas discrimination ability was not significantly worse (DeLong test 0.09). Conclusion: We developed and validated a predictive model for toxicity using gender, BMI, and emotional functioning. Such a model could help identify patients at risk for treatment-related high-grade toxicity to assist in treatment guidance and patient participation in shared decision making.

Total Neoadjuvant Therapy for Rectal Cancer in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 Randomized Phase 2 Trial: Early Surrogate Endpoints Revisited.

BACKGROUND: Early efficacy outcome measures in rectal cancer after total neoadjuvant treatment are increasingly investigated. We examined the prognostic role of pathological complete response (pCR), tumor regression grading (TRG) and neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score for disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with rectal carcinoma treated within the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 randomized phase 2 trial. METHODS: Distribution of pCR, TRG and NAR score was analyzed using the Pearson's chi-squared test. Univariable analyses were performed using the log-rank test, stratified by treatment arm. Discrimination ability of non-pCR for DFS was assessed by analyzing the ROC curve as a function of time. RESULTS: Of the 311 patients enrolled, 306 patients were evaluable (Arm A:156, Arm B:150). After a median follow-up of 43 months, the 3-year DFS was 73% in both groups (HR, 0.95, 95% CI, 0.63-1.45, p = 0.82). pCR tended to be higher in Arm B (17% vs. 25%, p = 0.086). In both treatment arms, pCR, TRG and NAR were significant prognostic factors for DFS, whereas survival in subgroups defined by pCR, TRG or NAR did not significantly differ between the treatment arms. The discrimination ability of non-pCR for DFS remained constant over time (C-Index 0.58) but was slightly better in Arm B (0.61 vs. 0.56). CONCLUSION: Although pCR, TRG and NAR were strong prognostic factors for DFS in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial, their value in selecting one TNT approach over another could not be confirmed. Hence, the conclusion of a long-term survival benefit of one treatment arm based on early surrogate endpoints should be stated with caution.