Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay.

Decreased body size is often cited as a major response to ocean warming. Available evidence, however, questions the actual emergence of shrinking trends and the prevalence of temperature-driven changes in size over alternative drivers. In marine fish, changes in food availability or fluctuations in abundance, including those due to size-selective fishing, provide compelling mechanisms to explain changes in body size. Here, based on three decades of scientific survey data (1990-2021), we report a decline in the average body size-length and weight-of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus L., in the Bay of Biscay. Shrinking was evident in all age classes, from juveniles to adults. Allometric adjustment indicated slightly more pronounced declines in weight than in total length, which is consistent with a change toward a slender body shape. Trends in adult weight were nonlinear, with rates accelerating to an average decline of up to 25% decade-1 during the last two decades. We found a strong association between higher anchovy abundance and reduced juvenile size. The effect of density dependence was less clear later in life, and temperature became the best predictor of declines in adult size. Theoretical analyses based on a strategic model further suggested that observed patterns are consistent with a simultaneous, opposing effect of rising temperatures on accelerating early growth and decreasing adult size as predicted by the temperature-size rule. Macroecological assessment of ecogeographical-Bergmann's and James'-rules in anchovy size suggested that the observed decline largely exceeds intraspecific variation and might be the result of selection. Limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study recommend caution and a continued assessment and exploration of alternative drivers. Additional evidence of a climate-driven regime shift in the region suggests, however, that shrinking anchovy sizes may signal a long-lasting change in the structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem.

Climate regime shifts and biodiversity redistribution in the Bay of Biscay.

Global ocean warming, wave extreme events, and accelerating sea-level rise are challenges that coastal communities must address to anticipate damages in coming decades. The objective of this study is to undertake a time-series analysis of climate change (CC) indicators within the Bay of Biscay, including the Basque coast. We used an integrated and flexible methodology, based on Generalized Additive Mixed Models, to detect trends on 19 indicators (including marine physics, chemistry, atmosphere, hydrology, geomorphology, biodiversity, and commercial species). The results of 87 long-term time series analysed (~512,000 observations), in the last four decades, indicate four groups of climate regime shifts: 1) A gradual shift associated with CC starting in the 1980s, with a warming of the sea surface down to 100 m depth in the bay (0.10-0.25 °C per decade), increase in air temperature and insolation. This warming may have impacted on benthic community redistribution in the Basque coast, favouring warm-water species relative to cold-water species. Weight at age for anchovy and sardine decreased in the last two decades. 2) Deepening of the winter mixed layer depth in the south-eastern bay that probably led to increases in nutrients, surface oxygen, and chlorophyll concentration. Current increases on chlorophyll and zooplankton (i.e., copepods) biomass are contrary to those expected under CC scenarios in the region. 3) Sea-level rise (1.5-3.5 cm per decade since 1990s), associated with CC. 4) Increase of extreme wave height events of 16.8 cm per decade in the south-eastern bay, probably related to stormy conditions in the last decade, with impacts on beach erosion. Estimating accurate rates of sea warming, sea-level rise, extreme events, and foreseeing the future pathways of marine productivity, are key to define the best adaptation measures to minimize negative CC impacts in the region.