High Thyroid Stimulating Receptor Antibody Titre and Large Goitre Size at First-Time Radioactive Iodine Treatment are Associated with Treatment Failure in Graves' Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Our study aimed to identify the factors associated with successful first-time radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment in patients with Graves' disease (GD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a restrospective study of patients with GD who were treated with RAI. Treatment success was defined as onset of permanent hypothyroidism or euthyroidism after 1 dose of RAI at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: There were 388 GD patients who underwent RAI treatment between January 2014 and December 2015. Of these, 74% achieved treatment success. Median time to achieve permanent hypothyroidism was 2 months. Male gender, smoking, higher antithyroid drug dosage, lower thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level, large goitre size and TSH receptor antibody (TRAb) titre at time of RAI were significantly associated with treatment failure. Multivariate analysis showed that larger goitre size and higher TRAb titre were associated with lower first-time RAI success. CONCLUSION: Larger goitre size and higher TRAb titre predict lower success of RAI therapy in GD patients. Treatment decisions and strategies should be customised for patients who present with these characteristics.

Incidence and mortality rates of varicella among end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in Singapore General Hospital, a 12-year review.

BACKGROUND: End stage renal disease (ESRD)/ end stage renal failure (ESRF) is on the rise globally and especially in Singapore. Varicella or chickenpox is not uncommon among adults especially ESRD/ESRF patients. It has been reported to cause complications and even death among immunocompetent adults. METHODS: A retrospective data collection on patients with varicella infection and ESRD in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from the year 2005 to 2016 was performed. Continuous data and categorical data were summarized as median (range) and count (%) respectively. The association of health care utilization (total length of hospital stay, readmission related to varicella, intensive care unit admission) and mortality with complication due to varicella were tested using chi-square and Mann-Whitney test for categorical and continuous outcomes respectively. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients with ESRD developed varicella during the study period (2005-2016). The case incidence rates for varicella among ESRD ranges from 97 to 267 per 100,000 populations with ESRD yearly. There were 9 deaths (13.6%). Mortality was higher among the ESRD patients with one or more varicella complications compared to patients without complications ((25% vs 7.1%, 95% CI for difference: - 1.1%, 36.9%, p = .063). Likewise, utilisation of intensive or high dependency units were higher among patients with complications compared to those without (20.8% vs 2.4%, 95% CI for difference: 1.6%, 35.3%, p = .012). Length of stay was twice as long in the group with complications compared to patients without (median (IQR) days: 14 (8, 21) vs 7 (5, 14), p = .065), although it did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Varicella is associated with high morbidity and significant mortality rate in ESRD patients. Varicella vaccination is recommended for seronegative ESRD patients.

Use of In Vitro Fertilisation Prediction Model in an Asian Population-Experience in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: This retrospective study was conducted to perform an external validation of the in vitro fertilisation (IVF) predict model developed by Scott Nelson et al in an Asian population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All IVF cycles registered in the study centre from January 2005 to December 2010 were included. Observed and predicted values of at least 1 live birth per cycle were compared by discrimination, calibration. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model calibration and Brier score was used to assess overall model performance. RESULTS: Among 634 IVF cycles, rate of at least 1 live birth was 30.6%. Causes of infertility were unexplained in 35.5% cases. Fifty-seven percent of women came for their first IVF treatment. First IVF cycle showed significantly higher success in comparison to subsequent cycles. The odds ratio of successful live birth was worse in women with endometriosis. Observed outcome was found to be more than the prediction of the model. The area under the curve (AUC) in this study was found to be 0.65 that was close to that of Nelson model (0.6335) done in internal validation. Brier score (average prediction error) of model was 0.2. Chi square goodness-of-fit test indicated that there was difference between the predicted and observed value (x² =18.28, df = 8, P = 0.019). Overall statistical findings indicated that the accuracy of the prediction model fitted poorly with the study population. CONCLUSION: Ovarian reserve, treatment centre and racial effect on predictability cannot be excluded. So it is important to make a good prediction model by considering the additional factors before using the model widely.