Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model.

In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals' social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

Spatial and sociodemographic factors associated with surgical site infection rates in hospitals in inner São Paulo State, Brazil.

Low-to-middle-income countries often have high incidence of surgical site infection (SSI). To assess spatial and sociodemographic predictors of SSI rates, this study analysed and georeferenced governmental surveillance data from 385 hospitals located in inner São Paulo State, Brazil. In multi-variate models, SSI rates were positively associated with distance from the state capital [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for each 100 km 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.32], and were lower for non-profit (IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.37-0.85) and private (IRR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.71) facilities compared with public hospitals. Georeferencing results reinforced the need to direct SSI-prevention policies to hospitals located in areas distant from the state capital.

Taking the inner route: spatial and demographic factors affecting vulnerability to COVID-19 among 604 cities from inner São Paulo State, Brazil.

Even though the impact of COVID-19 in metropolitan areas has been extensively studied, the geographic spread to smaller cities is also of great concern. We conducted an ecological study aimed at identifying predictors of early introduction, incidence rates of COVID-19 and mortality (up to 8 May 2020) among 604 municipalities in inner São Paulo State, Brazil. Socio-demographic indexes, road distance to the state capital and a classification of regional relevance were included in predictive models for time to COVID-19 introduction (Cox regression), incidence and mortality rates (zero-inflated binomial negative regression). In multivariable analyses, greater demographic density and higher classification of regional relevance were associated with both early introduction and increased rates of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Other predictive factors varied, but distance from the State Capital (São Paulo City) was negatively associated with time-to-introduction and with incidence rates of COVID-19. Our results reinforce the hypothesis of two patterns of geographical spread of SARS-Cov-2 infection: one that is spatial (from the metropolitan area into the inner state) and another which is hierarchical (from urban centres of regional relevance to smaller and less connected municipalities). Those findings may apply to other settings, especially in developing and highly heterogeneous countries, and point to a potential benefit from strengthening non-pharmaceutical control strategies in areas of greater risk.

Season, weather and predictors of healthcare-associated Gram-negative bloodstream infections: a case-only study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies reported seasonality in healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). The association of this phenomenon with other risk factors for HCAI is not clear. AIM: To analyse the interplay of season, weather and usual predictors of healthcare-associated bloodstream infections caused by Gram-negative bacilli (GNB-BSI). METHODS: A case-only study was conducted in a teaching hospital in Brazil. The study enrolled 446 subjects with GNB-BSI diagnosed from July 2012 to June 2016. Demographic data, comorbidities, invasive procedures and use of antimicrobials were reviewed in medical charts. The season in which GNB-BSI occurred, and weather parameters on the day of diagnosis were recorded. Factors associated with occurrence of GNB-BSI in different seasons (reference category: winter) and caused by different GNB (reference category: Escherichia coli) were analysed. Uni- and multi-variable models of multi-nomial logistic regression were used for analysis. FINDINGS: GNB-BSI diagnosed in summer was more likely to be caused by Klebsiella spp. [odds ratio (OR) 5.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.04-13.96] or Acinetobacter baumannii (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.04-6.96), and there was an association between Klebsiella spp. and spring (OR 2.86; 95% CI 1.14-7.18). Average temperature on the day of diagnosis was associated with Klebsiella spp. (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.07-1.33) and A. baumannii (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07-1.34). CONCLUSION: Warm seasons and daily temperature impact on the aetiology of GNB-BSI, even in models adjusted for usual risk factors. One possible explanation for these findings is that seasonality of healthcare-associated pathogens is intrinsic to micro-organisms, and not associated with comorbidities, procedures or use of antimicrobials.

The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens.

Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among the important measures to mitigate the spread of healthcare-associated infection within and between hospitals. Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important human pathogen that can spread in hospital settings, with some forms exhibiting drug resistance, including resistance to the carbapenem class of antibiotics, the drugs of last resort for such infections. Focusing on the role of patient movement within and between hospitals on the transmission and incidence of enterobacteria producing the K. pneumoniae Carbapenemase (KPC, an enzyme that inactivates several antimicrobials), we developed a metapopulation model where the connections among hospitals are made using a theoretical hospital network based on Brazilian hospital sizes and locations. The pathogen reproductive number, R0 that measures the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual, was calculated in different scenarios defined by both the links between hospital environments (regular wards and intensive care units) and between different hospitals (patient transfer). Numerical simulation was used to illustrate the infection dynamics in this set of scenarios. The sensitivity of R0 to model input parameters, such as hospital connectivity and patient-hospital staff contact rates was also established, highlighting the differential importance of factors amenable to change on pathogen transmission and control.

Use of parenteral antimicrobials in very small hospitals in inner Brazil: patterns, determinants, and opportunities for interventions in developing countries.

Much of healthcare in developing countries takes place in small hospitals. Little is known about the use of antimicrobials in those settings. We studied the 60-day use of parenteral antimicrobials in 48 hospitals with up to 50 beds in inner Brazil. The overall use was 242.0 defined daily doses per 100 admissions, and broad-spectrum agents accounted for 26.8%. The existence of local guidelines, educational measures and restrictive policies for antimicrobial prescriptions, as well as infection control and microbiology resources, were significantly associated with lesser use. Those findings point to possible interventions aimed at preventing antimicrobial over-use in developing countries.

Polyclonal endemicity of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital from Brazil: molecular typing of decade-old strains

Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections cause significant mortality and morbidity in health care settings. Strategies to prevent and control the emergence and spread of P. aeruginosa within hospitals involve implementation of barrier methods and antimicrobial stewardship programs. However, there is still much debate over which of these measures holds the utmost importance. Molecular strain typing may help elucidate this issue. In our study, 71 nosocomial isolates from 41 patients and 23 community-acquired isolates from 21 patients were genotyped. Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) was performed. Band patterns were compared using similarity coefficients of Dice, Jaccard and simple matching. Strain similarity for nosocomial strains varied from 0.14 to 1.00 (Dice); 0.08 to 1.00 (Jaccard) and 0.58 to 1.00 (simple matching). Forty patterns were identified. In most units, several clones coexisted. However, there was evidence of clonal dissemination in the high risk nursery, neurology and two surgical units. Each and every community-acquired strain produced a unique distinct pattern. Results suggest that cross transmission of P. aeruginosa was an uncommon event in our hospital. This points out to a minor role for barrier methods in the control of P. aeruginosa spread.(AU)

Knowledge and attitudes of health care workers from intensive care units regarding nosocomial transmission of influenza: a study on the immediate pre-pandemic period

The transmission of influenza in health care settings is a major threat to patients, especially those with severe diseases. The attitude of health care workers (HCWs) may influence the transmission of countless infections. The current study aimed to quantify knowledge and identify attitudes of HCWs involved in intensive care units (ICUs) regarding the risk of nosocomial influenza transmission. A questionnaire was applied through interviews to HCWs who worked in one of the five ICUs from a teaching hospital. Questions about influenza were deliberately dispersed among others that assessed several infectious agents. Forty-two HCWs were interviewed: nine physicians, ten nurses and 23 nursing technicians or auxiliaries. Among the 42 HCWs, 98 percent were aware of the potential transmission of influenza virus in the ICUs, but only 31 percent would indicate droplet precautions for patients with suspected infection. Moreover, only 31 percent of them had been vaccinated against influenza in the last campaign (2008). Nursing technicians or auxiliaries were more likely to have been vaccinated, both by univariate and multivariable analysis. When asked about absenteeism, only 10 percent of the study subjects stated that they would not go to work if they had an influenza-like illness. Those findings suggest that, in non-pandemic periods, influenza control in hospitals requires strategies that combine continuous education with changes in organizational culture.(AU)

Knowledge and attitudes of health care workers from intensive care units regarding nosocomial transmission of influenza: a study on the immediate pre-pandemic period

The transmission of influenza in health care settings is a major threat to patients, especially those with severe diseases. The attitude of health care workers (HCWs) may influence the transmission of countless infections. The current study aimed to quantify knowledge and identify attitudes of HCWs involved in intensive care units (ICUs) regarding the risk of nosocomial influenza transmission. A questionnaire was applied through interviews to HCWs who worked in one of the five ICUs from a teaching hospital. Questions about influenza were deliberately dispersed among others that assessed several infectious agents. Forty-two HCWs were interviewed: nine physicians, ten nurses and 23 nursing technicians or auxiliaries. Among the 42 HCWs, 98 percent were aware of the potential transmission of influenza virus in the ICUs, but only 31 percent would indicate droplet precautions for patients with suspected infection. Moreover, only 31 percent of them had been vaccinated against influenza in the last campaign (2008). Nursing technicians or auxiliaries were more likely to have been vaccinated, both by univariate and multivariable analysis. When asked about absenteeism, only 10 percent of the study subjects stated that they would not go to work if they had an influenza-like illness. Those findings suggest that, in non-pandemic periods, influenza control in hospitals requires strategies that combine continuous education with changes in organizational culture.

Polyclonal endemicity of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital from Brazil: molecular typing of decade-old strains

Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections cause significant mortality and morbidity in health care settings. Strategies to prevent and control the emergence and spread of P. aeruginosa within hospitals involve implementation of barrier methods and antimicrobial stewardship programs. However, there is still much debate over which of these measures holds the utmost importance. Molecular strain typing may help elucidate this issue. In our study, 71 nosocomial isolates from 41 patients and 23 community-acquired isolates from 21 patients were genotyped. Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) was performed. Band patterns were compared using similarity coefficients of Dice, Jaccard and simple matching. Strain similarity for nosocomial strains varied from 0.14 to 1.00 (Dice); 0.08 to 1.00 (Jaccard) and 0.58 to 1.00 (simple matching). Forty patterns were identified. In most units, several clones coexisted. However, there was evidence of clonal dissemination in the high risk nursery, neurology and two surgical units. Each and every community-acquired strain produced a unique distinct pattern. Results suggest that cross transmission of P. aeruginosa was an uncommon event in our hospital. This points out to a minor role for barrier methods in the control of P. aeruginosa spread.

Surveillance Programme for Healthcare Associated Infections in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Implementation and the first three years' results.

Governmental programmes should be developed to collect and analyse data on healthcare associated infections (HAIs). This study describes the healthcare setting and both the implementation and preliminary results of the Programme for Surveillance of Healthcare Associated Infections in the State of São Paulo (PSHAISP), Brazil, from 2004 to 2006. Characterisation of the healthcare settings was carried out using a national database. The PSHAISP was implemented using components for acute care hospitals (ACH) or long term care facilities (LTCF). The components for surveillance in ACHs were surgical unit, intensive care unit and high risk nursery. The infections included in the surveillance were surgical site infection in clean surgery, pneumonia, urinary tract infection and device-associated bloodstream infections. Regarding the LTCF component, pneumonia, scabies and gastroenteritis in all inpatients were reported. In the first year of the programme there were 457 participating healthcare settings, representing 51.1% of the hospitals registered in the national database. Data obtained in this study are the initial results and have already been used for education in both surveillance and the prevention of HAI. The results of the PSHAISP show that it is feasible to collect data from a large number of hospitals. This will assist the State of São Paulo in assessing the impact of interventions and in resource allocation.

Outbreak of surgical infection caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria in breast implants in Brazil.

SUMMARY: We investigated an outbreak caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) related to breast implant surgery in the city of Campinas, Brazil, by means of a retrospective cohort and molecular epidemiological study. A total of 492 records of individuals having breast surgery in 12 hospitals were evaluated. Twelve isolates were analysed using four different molecular typing methods. There were 14 confirmed cases, 14 possible cases and one probable case. One probable, nine possible and 12 confirmed cases were included in a cohort study; all occurred in eight of the hospitals and the confirmed cases in five. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had had breast reconstruction surgery in hospitals A and B were more likely to have NTM infections. No risk factor was independently associated with NTM infection in the multivariate model. The isolates obtained from patients at each hospital showed different molecular patterns, excluding isolates from hospital C that repeatedly showed the same genotype for approximately one year. In conclusion, this outbreak was caused by polyclonal strains at different institutions, and in one hospital a unique genotype caused most cases. No specific risk factors were found.

Application of four molecular typing methods for analysis of Mycobacterium fortuitum group strains causing post-mammaplasty infections.

A cluster of cases of post-augmentation mammaplasty surgical site infections occurred between 2002 and 2004 in Campinas, in the southern region of Brazil. Rapidly growing mycobacteria were isolated from samples from 12 patients. Eleven isolates were identified as Mycobacterium fortuitum and one as Mycobacterium porcinum by PCR-restriction digestion of the hsp65 gene. These 12 isolates, plus six additional M. fortuitum isolates from non-related patients, were typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and three PCR-based techniques: 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) genotyping; randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) PCR; and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) PCR. Four novel M. fortuitum allelic variants were identified by restriction analysis of the ITS fragment. One major cluster, comprising six M. fortuitum isolates, and a second cluster of two isolates, were identified by the four methods. RAPD-PCR and ITS genotyping were less discriminative than ERIC-PCR. ERIC-PCR was comparable to PFGE as a valuable complementary tool for investigation of this type of outbreak.