Hotspots of species loss do not vary across future climate scenarios in a drought-prone river basin.

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of species around the world, but estimates of species' outcomes vary widely among competing climate scenarios. Where should conservation resources be directed to maximize expected conservation benefits given future climate uncertainty? Here, we explore this question by quantifying variation in fish species' distributions across future climate scenarios in the Red River basin south-central United States. We modeled historical and future stream fish distributions using a suite of environmental covariates derived from high-resolution hydrologic and climatic modeling of the basin. We quantified variation in outcomes for individual species across climate scenarios and across space, and identified hotspots of species loss by summing changes in probability of occurrence across species. Under all climate scenarios, we find that the distribution of most fish species in the Red River Basin will contract by 2050. However, the variability across climate scenarios was more than 10 times higher for some species than for others. Despite this uncertainty in outcomes for individual species, hotspots of species loss tended to occur in the same portions of the basin across all climate scenarios. We also find that the most common species are projected to experience the greatest range contractions, underscoring the need for directing conservation resources toward both common and rare species. Our results suggest that while it may be difficult to predict which species will be most impacted by climate change, it may nevertheless be possible to identify spatial priorities for climate mitigation actions that are robust to future climate uncertainty. These findings are likely to be generalizable to other ecosystems around the world where future climate conditions follow prevailing historical patterns of key environmental covariates.

The movement of aquatic mercury through terrestrial food webs.

Mercury has contaminated rivers worldwide, with health consequences for aquatic organisms and humans who consume them. Researchers have focused on aquatic birds as sentinels for mercury. However, trophic transfer between adjacent ecosystems could lead to the export of aquatic mercury to terrestrial habitats. Along a mercury-contaminated river in Virginia, United States, terrestrial birds had significantly elevated levels of mercury in their blood, similar to their aquatic-feeding counterparts. Diet analysis revealed that spiders delivered much of the dietary mercury. We conclude that aquatic mercury pollution can move into terrestrial habitats, where it biomagnifies to levels in songbirds that may cause adverse effects. Rivers contaminated with mercury may pose a threat to the many bird species that feed on predatory invertebrates in adjacent riparian habitats.