Climate Suitability for Magnaporthe oryzae Triticum Pathotype in the United States.

Wheat blast, caused by the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae, is an emerging disease considered to be a limiting factor to wheat production in various countries. Given the importance of wheat blast as a high-consequence plant disease, weather-based infection models were used to estimate the probabilities of M. oryzae Triticum establishment and wheat blast outbreaks in the United States. The models identified significant disease risk in some areas. With the threshold levels used, the models predicted that the climate was adequate for maintaining M. oryzae Triticum populations in 40% of winter wheat production areas of the United States. Disease outbreak threshold levels were only reached in 25% of the country. In Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, the probability of years suitable for outbreaks was greater than 70%. The models generated in this study should provide the foundation for more advanced models in the future, and the results reported could be used to prioritize research efforts regarding the biology of M. oryzae Triticum and the epidemiology of the wheat blast disease.

Modeling phytosanitary risk of unintended commodity use: the example of U.S. potato exports to Mexico.

Diversion of commodities from their intended use to an unintended use, e.g., when commodities intended for consumption are used as seed for planting, is an important issue in agricultural trade that has implications for the establishment of pests and pathogens in an importing country and for the appropriate strength of plant health measures. Consequently, understanding and accurately characterizing the risk of diversion from intended use is highly relevant to policymakers, trading partners, and in trade dispute arbitration. To our knowledge, no risk assessments have ever accounted for the likelihood of diversion from intended use. Here we present an approach to analyzing this risk using diversion of U.S. table stock potatoes to seed for planting by Mexican potato producers as a case study. We use probabilistic pathway models to characterize the movement of white, yellow, and russet potatoes from the United States into Mexico at current and double export volumes. We then model the likelihood of these potatoes being diverted for seed and the subsequent establishment of bacteria, nematode, and virus pests in Mexico. Our approach demonstrates how diversion from intended use can be quantified in one scenario and, in particular, how it can be analyzed to estimate the magnitude of diversion required to produce a high risk of pest establishment.

Effects of mass inoculation on induced oleoresin response in intensively managed loblolly pine.

Oleoresin flow is an important factor in the resistance of pines to attack by southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm., and its associated fungi. Abiotic factors, such as nutrient supply and water relations, have the potential to modify this plant-insect-fungus interaction; however, little is known of the effects of inoculation with beetle-associated fungi on oleoresin flow. We observed that constitutive and induced resin yield in loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L., were affected by either fungal inoculation (with the southern pine beetle-associated fungus Ophiostoma minus (Hedgcock) H. & P. Sydow) or silvicultural treatment. The effects of mass wounding (400 wounds m(-2)) and mass wounding and inoculation with O. minus were assessed by comparison with untreated (control) trees. The treatments were applied to trees in a 2 x 2 factorial combination of fertilizer and irrigation treatments. Fertilization did not significantly affect constitutive resin yield. Even as long as 105 days post-treatment, however, mass-inoculated trees produced higher induced resin yields than control or wounded-only trees, indicating a localized induced response to fungal inoculation. We noted no systemic induction of host defenses against fungal colonization. Although beetles attacking previously attacked trees face a greater resinous response from their host than beetles attacking trees that had not been previously attacked, the effect of an earlier attack may not last more than one flight season. Despite mass inoculations, O. minus did not kill the host trees, suggesting that this fungus is not a virulent plant pathogen.