Four early warning scores predict mortality in emergency surgical patients at University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka: a prospective observational study.

PURPOSE: The value of early warning scoring systems has been established in high-income countries. There is little evidence for their use in low-resource settings. We aimed to compare existing early warning scores to predict 30-day mortality. METHODS: University Teaching Hospital is a tertiary center in Lusaka, Zambia. Adult surgical patients, excluding obstetrics, admitted for > 24 hr were included in this prospective observational study. On days 1 to 3 of admission, we collected data on patient demographics, heart rate, blood pressure, oxygen saturation, oxygen administration, temperature, consciousness level, and mobility. Two-, three-, and 30-day mortality were recorded with their associated variables analyzed using area under receiver operating curves (AUROC) for the National Early Warning Score (NEWS); the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS); a modified Hypotension, Oxygen Saturation, Temperature, ECG, Loss of Independence (mHOTEL) score; and the Tachypnea, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, Alertness, Loss of Independence (TOTAL) score. RESULTS: Data were available for 254 patients from March 2017 to July 2017. Eighteen (7.5%) patients died at 30 days. The four early warning scores were found to be predictive of 30-day mortality: MEWS (AUROC, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 0.88; P < 0.001), NEWS (AUROC 0.805; 95% CI, 0.688 to 0.92; P < 0.001), mHOTEL (AUROC 0.759; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.89, P < 0.001), and TOTAL (AUROC 0.782; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.90; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We validated four scoring systems in predicting mortality in a Zambian surgical population. Further work is required to assess if implementation of these scoring systems can improve outcomes.

Neurologic illness in Zambia: A neurointensivist's experience.

INTRODUCTION: Management of critically ill patients in dedicated intensive care units (ICUs) is the standard of care in high income countries (HICs), but remains uncommon in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to determine the prevalence of neurologic disorders in the ICU of a LMIC and examine if resource appropriate specialized neurocritical care training could benefit these patients. METHODS: From February to March 2017, a trained neurocritical care intensivist recorded encounters in the sole ICU at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) in Lusaka, Zambia. We stratified each patient by demographics, presence of primary or secondary neurologic deficit, comorbidities, and outcome. RESULTS: Of the 33 patients seen during this period, 26 (78.8%) had a neurologic deficit. An equal number of patients carried a primary neurologic diagnosis (13) versus a secondary neurologic diagnosis (13). Primary neurologic disorders included spinal cord injury/tumor/abscess, intracranial hemorrhage, Guillain-Barre syndrome, and traumatic brain injury. CONCLUSIONS: Over three-quarters of critically ill patients in the observation period carried a neurologic diagnosis. Future research should aim to identify if resource appropriate neurocritical care training of frontline providers may lead to improved clinical outcomes.