Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden.

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

Digital dermatitis in Swedish dairy herds assessed by ELISA targeting Treponema phagedenis in bulk tank milk.

BACKGROUND: Digital dermatitis (DD) is a contagious hoof infection affecting cattle worldwide. The disease causes lameness and a reduction in animal welfare, which ultimately leads to major decreases in milk production in dairy cattle. The disease is most likely of polymicrobial origin with Treponema phagedenis and other Treponema spp. playing a key role; however, the etiology is not fully understood. Diagnosis of the disease is based on visual assessment of the feet by trained hoof-trimmers and veterinarians, as a more reliable diagnostic method is lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) on bulk tank milk samples testing for the presence of T. phagedenis antibodies as a proxy to assess herd prevalence of DD in Swedish dairy cattle herds. RESULTS: Bulk tank milk samples were collected in 2013 from 612 dairy herds spread across Sweden. A nationwide DD apparent prevalence of 11.9% (8.1-14.4% CI95%) was found, with the highest proportion of test-positive herds in the South Swedish regions (31.3%; 19.9-42.4% CI95%). CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals an underestimation of DD prevalence based on test results compared to hoof trimming data, highlighting the critical need for a reliable and accurate diagnostic method. Such a method is essential for disease monitoring and the development of effective control strategies. The novelty of ELISA-based diagnostic methods for DD, coupled with the disease's polymicrobial origin, suggests an avenue for improvement. Developing an expanded ELISA, incorporating antigens from various bacterial species implicated in the disease, could enhance diagnostic accuracy. The significance of this study is underscored by the extensive analysis of a substantial sample size (612). Notably, this investigation stands as the largest assessment to date, evaluating the application of ELISA on bulk tank milk for DD diagnosis at the herd level.

Review state-of-the-art of output-based methodological approaches for substantiating freedom from infection.

A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data. Substantiating freedom from infection consists in quantifying the evidence of absence from the absence of evidence. The quantification usually consists in estimating the probability of observing no positive test result, in a given sample, assuming that the infection is present at a chosen (low) prevalence, called the design prevalence. The usual surveillance outputs are the sensitivity of surveillance and the probability of freedom from infection. A variety of factors influencing the choice of a method are presented; disease prevalence context, performance of the tests used, risk factors of infection, structure of the surveillance programme and frequency of testing. The existing methods for estimating the probability of freedom from infection are scenario trees, Bayesian belief networks, simulation methods, Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model. Scenario trees analysis is the current reference method for proving freedom from infection and is widely used in countries that claim freedom. Bayesian belief networks and simulation methods are considered extensions of scenario trees. They can be applied to more complex surveillance schemes and represent complex infection dynamics. Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model allow freedom from infection estimation at the herd-level from longitudinal surveillance data, considering risk factor information and the structure of the population. Comparison of surveillance outputs from heterogeneous surveillance programmes for estimating the probability of freedom from infection is a difficult task. This paper is a 'guide towards substantiating freedom from infection' that describes both all assumptions-limitations and available methods that can be applied in different settings.

Social and ethical implications of data and technology use on farms: a qualitative study of Swedish dairy and pig farmers.

Introduction: Livestock farmers are being increasingly encouraged to adopt digital health technologies on their farms. Digital innovations may have unintended consequences, but there tends to be a pro-innovation bias in previous literature. This has led to a movement towards "responsible innovation," an approach that questions the social and ethical challenges of research and innovation. This paper explores the social and ethical issues of data and technologies on Swedish dairy and pig farms from a critical perspective. Methods: Six focus groups were conducted with thirteen dairy and thirteen pig farmers. The data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis and a digital critical health lens, which focuses on concepts of identity and power. Results and discussion: The analysis generated four themes: extending the self, sense of agency, quantifying animals, and managing human labour. The findings suggest that technologies can change and form the identities of farmers, their workers, and animals by increasing the visibility of behaviours and bodies through data collection. Technologies can also facilitate techniques of power such as conforming to norms, hierarchical surveillance, and segregation of populations based on data. There were many contradictions in the way that technology was used on farms which suggests that farmers cannot be dichotomised into those who are opposed to and those that support adoption of technologies. Emotions and morality played an important role in the way animals were managed and technologies were used by farmers. Thus, when developing innovations, we need to consider users' feelings and attachments towards the technologies. Technologies have different impacts on farmers and farm workers which suggests that we need to ensure that we understand the perspectives of multiple user groups when developing innovations, including those that might be least empowered.

Infectious keratoconjunctivitis in semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus): a questionnaire-based study among reindeer herders in Norway and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The effects of climate change, loss of pastureland to other land usage and presence of large carnivores are the main reasons for the increase in supplementary feeding of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Fennoscandia over the last decades. Feeding might expose reindeer to stress and increased animal-to-animal contact, leading to an increased risk of infectious disease transmission, such as infectious keratoconjunctivitis (IKC). As it can develop rapidly and be very painful, IKC is described as an important animal welfare concern and a potential source of economic loss. The aim of this study was to investigate the current presence of IKC and potential associations between IKC and supplementary feeding through an online questionnaire survey, distributed among reindeer herders in Norway and Sweden in 2021. RESULTS: Seventy-six reindeer herders (33 from Norway and 43 from Sweden) responded to the questionnaire, representing 6% and 4% of the registered reindeer herding groups in Norway and Sweden, respectively. Infectious keratoconjunctivitis was common, with 54 (71%) of the 76 herders that responded having observed clinical signs during the past 10 years. These signs were mainly observed as increased lacrimation, causing "wet cheeks", but also as keratitis and conjunctivitis. Autumn and winter were the seasons in which IKC was observed most. The herders reported several measures, such as slaughter and isolation of affected reindeer, to counteract the spread of disease. The herding year 2019/2020 was associated with reports of outbreaks of IKC in herds as well as being the herding year where most herders (80%) had performed supplementary feeding. A significant association was found between IKC and feeding performed in an enclosure (odds ratio = 15.20), while feeding on free-range areas had a non-significant, negative, relationship with the appearance of IKC outbreaks (odds ratio = 0.29). Finally, there was a trend in the data suggesting that IKC affected calves especially. CONCLUSIONS: Infectious keratoconjunctivitis is a common disease, mainly observed in winter and autumn. It usually has mild to moderately severe clinical signs. Our results imply that IKC is associated with stress and feeding situations and that calves might be more susceptible than adults, however, this needs to be confirmed with further studies, preferably at an individual animal level.

Can we use meat inspection data for animal health and welfare surveillance?

Ante- and post-mortem inspections at abattoir were originally introduced to provide assurance that animal carcasses were fit for human consumption. However, findings at meat inspection can also represent a valuable source of information for animal health and welfare surveillance. Yet, before making secondary use of meat inspection data, it is important to assess that the same post-mortem findings get registered in a consistent way among official meat inspectors across abattoirs, so that the results are as much independent as possible from the abattoir where the inspection is performed. The most frequent findings at official meat inspections of pigs and beef cattle in Sweden were evaluated by means of variance partitioning to quantify the amount of variation in the probabilities of these findings due to abattoir and farm levels. Seven years of data (2012-2018) from 19 abattoirs were included in the study. The results showed that there was a very low variation between abattoirs for presence of liver parasites and abscesses, moderately low variation for pneumonia and greatest variation for injuries and nonspecific findings (e.g., other lesions). This general pattern of variation was similar for both species and implies that some post-mortem findings are consistently detected and so are a valuable source of epidemiological information for surveillance purposes. However, for those findings associated with higher variation, calibration and training activities of meat inspection staff are necessary to enable correct conclusions about the occurrence of pathological findings and for producers to experience an equivalent likelihood of deduction in payment (independent of abattoir).

Data workflows and visualization in support of surveillance practice.

The Swedish National Veterinary Institute (SVA) is working on implementing reusable and adaptable workflows for epidemiological analysis and dynamic report generation to improve disease surveillance. Important components of this work include: data access, development environment, computational resources and cloud-based management. The development environment relies on Git for code collaboration and version control and the R language for statistical computing and data visualization. The computational resources include both local and cloud-based systems, with automatic workflows managed in the cloud. The workflows are designed to be flexible and adaptable to changing data sources and stakeholder demands, with the ultimate goal to create a robust infrastructure for the delivery of actionable epidemiological information.

The DECIDE project: from surveillance data to decision-support for farmers and veterinarians.

Farmers, veterinarians and other animal health managers in the livestock sector are currently missing sufficient information on prevalence and burden of contagious endemic animal diseases. They need adequate tools for risk assessment and prioritization of control measures for these diseases. The DECIDE project develops data-driven decision-support tools, which present (i) robust and early signals of disease emergence and options for diagnostic confirmation; and (ii) options for controlling the disease along with their implications in terms of disease spread, economic burden and animal welfare. DECIDE focuses on respiratory and gastro-intestinal syndromes in the three most important terrestrial livestock species (pigs, poultry, cattle) and on reduced growth and mortality in two of the most important aquaculture species (salmon and trout). For each of these, we (i) identify the stakeholder needs; (ii) determine the burden of disease and costs of control measures; (iii) develop data sharing frameworks based on federated data access and meta-information sharing; (iv) build multivariate and multi-level models for creating early warning systems; and (v) rank interventions based on multiple criteria. Together, all of this forms decision-support tools to be integrated in existing farm management systems wherever possible and to be evaluated in several pilot implementations in farms across Europe. The results of DECIDE lead to improved use of surveillance data and evidence-based decisions on disease control. Improved disease control is essential for a sustainable food chain in Europe with increased animal health and welfare and that protects human health.

Swedish Trotting Horse Trainers' Perceptions of Animal Welfare Inspections from Public and Private Actors.

In Sweden, the County Administrative Board (CAB) and Swedish Trotting Association (STA) both perform animal welfare inspections of the premises of trotting horse trainers. The CAB inspection checks for compliance with the legislation, and the STA inspection checks for compliance with the private 'Trotter Health Standard', which mainly sets the same requirements as the legislation. This study investigated the views of trainers on these inspections both as separate events and in relation to each other. A digital questionnaire was sent out to trotting horse trainers in Sweden during spring 2021, and 396 trainers responded. Descriptive and statistical analyses were used to evaluate the responses. In general, the trainers reported positive experiences of both the CAB and STA inspections, but they had consistently more positive views about the private STA inspections than the official CAB inspections. The outcome of the inspections, i.e., non-compliance or not, did not affect trainers' perceptions of the inspections, but inspectors' knowledge, manner, and responsiveness had a strong effect. The trainers were generally satisfied with the current control system but would like better coordination between the different inspections.

Corrigendum: Overview of Cattle Diseases Listed Under Category C, D or E in the Animal Health Law for Which Control Programmes Are in Place Within Europe.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.688078.].

Overview of Cattle Diseases Listed Under Category C, D or E in the Animal Health Law for Which Control Programmes Are in Place Within Europe.

The COST action "Standardising output-based surveillance to control non-regulated diseases of cattle in the European Union (SOUND control)," aims to harmonise the results of surveillance and control programmes (CPs) for non-EU regulated cattle diseases to facilitate safe trade and improve overall control of cattle infectious diseases. In this paper we aimed to provide an overview on the diversity of control for these diseases in Europe. A non-EU regulated cattle disease was defined as an infectious disease of cattle with no or limited control at EU level, which is not included in the European Union Animal health law Categories A or B under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/2002. A CP was defined as surveillance and/or intervention strategies designed to lower the incidence, prevalence, mortality or prove freedom from a specific disease in a region or country. Passive surveillance, and active surveillance of breeding bulls under Council Directive 88/407/EEC were not considered as CPs. A questionnaire was designed to obtain country-specific information about CPs for each disease. Animal health experts from 33 European countries completed the questionnaire. Overall, there are 23 diseases for which a CP exists in one or more of the countries studied. The diseases for which CPs exist in the highest number of countries are enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, bovine viral diarrhoea and anthrax (CPs reported by between 16 and 31 countries). Every participating country has on average, 6 CPs (min-max: 1-13) in place. Most programmes are implemented at a national level (86%) and are applied to both dairy and non-dairy cattle (75%). Approximately one-third of the CPs are voluntary, and the funding structure is divided between government and private resources. Countries that have eradicated diseases like enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine viral diarrhoea have implemented CPs for other diseases to further improve the health status of cattle in their country. The control of non-EU regulated cattle diseases is very heterogenous in Europe. Therefore, the standardising of the outputs of these programmes to enable comparison represents a challenge.

Evaluation of test characteristics of 2 ELISA tests applied to bulk tank milk and claw-trimming records for herd-level diagnosis of bovine digital dermatitis using latent class analysis.

Bovine digital dermatitis (DD) is an infectious claw disease with a negative effect on animal welfare and production. Treponema spp. is the main causative agent, and infected animals produce specific antibodies. Our aim was to estimate sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of 2 ELISA research tests, Medicago's ELISA test and GD Animal Health's in-house ELISA test, for detection of DD-associated Treponema antibodies in bulk tank milk. We used bulk tank milk samples from 154 Norwegian dairy cattle herds, 96 from an expected high-prevalence region and 58 from a low-prevalence region. Both tests were evaluated separately against herd-level (aggregated) claw-trimming records extracted from the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System using latent class models in a Bayesian analysis. Cutoff values were selected using an explorative approach, and both noninformative priors for all parameters and informative ß priors for distribution of Se and Sp of claw trimming were explored. The estimated (median) true herd-level prevalence of digital dermatitis varied between 24 and 30% in the high-prevalence region and between 3 and 6% in the low-prevalence region. For Medicago's ELISA test, an Se (95% posterior credible interval) of 0.57 (0.32; 0.94) could be achieved without compromising Sp, and for GD Animal Health's in-house ELISA test, an Se of 0.60 (0.37; 0.92) was achieved. Our study showed that both ELISA tests can detect antibodies against DD-associated Treponema spp. in bulk tank milk. However, neither of the 2 ELISA tests produced satisfactory sensitivity without compromising specificity. Based on these results, inspection at claw trimming in a chute is necessary for surveillance and control of DD at the herd level in Norway, although these ELISA tests of bulk tank milk might be a useful supplement.

Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network.

To monitor a state of disease freedom and to ensure a timely detection of new introductions of disease, surveillance programmes need be evaluated prior to implementation. We present a strategy to evaluate surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) using simulated testing of bulk milk in an infectious disease spread model. MAP is a globally distributed, chronic infectious disease with substantial animal health impact. Designing surveillance for this disease poses specific challenges because methods for surveillance evaluation have focused on estimating surveillance system sensitivity and probability of freedom from disease and do not account for spread of disease or complex and changing population structure over long periods. The aims of the study were to 1. define a model that describes the spread of MAP within and between Swedish herds; 2. define a method for simulation of imperfect diagnostic testing in this framework; 3. to compare surveillance strategies to support surveillance design choices. The results illustrate how this approach can be used to identify differences between the probability of detecting disease in the population based on choices of the number of herds sampled and the use of risk-based or random selection of these herds. The approach was also used to assess surveillance to detect introduction of disease and to detect a very low prevalence endemic state. The use of bulk milk sampling was determined to be an effective method to detect MAP in the population with as few as 500 herds tested per year if the herd-level prevalence was 0.2 %. However, detection of point introductions in the population was unlikely in the 13-year simulation period even if as many as 2000 herds were tested per year. Interestingly, the use of a risk-based selection strategy was found to be a disadvantage to detect MAP given the modelled disease dynamics.

Detection and molecular characterisation of Cryptosporidium spp. in Swedish pigs.

BACKGROUND: Cryptosporidium is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that cause enteric disease in vertebrates. In pigs, infections are most often asymptomatic, but may result in diarrhoea and poor growth. The most common species detected in pigs are C. suis and C. scrofarum with low zoonotic potential. C. parvum, with higher zoonotic potential, may also be found. As previous knowledge on the occurrence of Cryptosporidium in Swedish pigs is scarce, this was investigated in our study. Faecal samples from 13 pig herds were collected and a total of 222 pooled pen samples, from suckling piglets (n = 48), growers, aged 6-12 weeks (n = 57), fatteners, aged 13-24 weeks (n = 67) and adult animals (n = 50) were included. Samples were analysed using microscopy and positive samples were further analysed using polymerase chain reaction and sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene and the 28S rRNA gene to determine species. RESULTS: Cryptosporidium spp. were detected in all sampled herds and in 25% (56/222) of the individual pen samples. Infections were most common in growers and fatteners with 51% (29/57) and 35% (20/67) positive samples in each group, respectively. The piglets had 8% (4/48) positive samples and adults had 6% (3/50). Species determination showed C. suis and C. scrofarum in piglets and growers, C. scrofarum in the fatteners, and C. suis and C. parvum in the adults. Although no mixed infections could be confirmed we saw signs of double peaks in the 28S rRNA gene chromatograms, possibly indicating more than one species present per sample. CONCLUSION: Cryptosporidium spp. were detected on every sampled farm and in 25% of the individual pen samples in our study. We therefore conclude that Cryptosporidium spp. are present and likely common in Swedish pig herds, where pigs are loose and reared on solid floors. However, none of the farms reported any problems with poor weight gain, diarrhoea, or reduced appetite in their pig herds. The pig adapted C. suis and C. scrofarum were the predominant species identified. Two samples were positive for the more zoonotic C. parvum, and pigs should hence not be disregarded as a possible source of zoonotic cryptosporidiosis.

Herd level estimation of probability of disease freedom applied on the Norwegian control program for bovine respiratory syncytial virus and bovine coronavirus.

A national control program against bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BCV) was launched in Norway in 2016. A key strategy in the program is to test for presence of antibodies and protect test-negative herds from infection. Because these viruses are endemic, the rate of re-introduction can be high, and a disease-free status will become more uncertain as time from testing elapses. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of freedom (PostPFree) from BRSV and BCV antibodies over time by use of bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody-testing, geographic information and animal movement data, and to validate the herd-level estimates against subsequent BTM testing. BTM samples were collected from 1148 study herds in West Norway in 2013 and 2016, and these were analyzed for BRSV and BCV antibodies. PostPFree was calculated for herds that were negative in 2013/2014, and updated periodically with new probabilities every three months. Input variables were test sensitivity, the probability of introduction through animal purchase and local transmission. Probability of introduction through animal purchase was calculated by using real animal movement data and herd prevalence in the region of the source herd. The PostPFree from the final three months in 2015 was compared to BTM test results from March 2016 using a Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test. The probability of freedom was generally high for test-negative herds immediately after testing, reflecting the high sensitivity of the tests. It did however, decrease with time since testing, and was greatly affected by purchase of livestock. When comparing the median PostPFree for the final three months to the test results in 2016, it was significantly lower (p < 0.01) for test positive herds. Furthermore, there was a large difference in the proportion of test positive herds between the first and fourth quartile of PostPFree. The results show that PostPFree provides a better estimate of herd-level BTM status for both BRSV and BCV than what can be achieved by relying solely on the previous test-result.

STOC Free: An Innovative Framework to Compare Probability of Freedom From Infection in Heterogeneous Control Programmes.

The existence, stage of eradication and design of control programmes (CPs) for diseases that are not regulated by the EU differ between Member States. When freedom from infection is reached or being pursued, safe trade is essential to protect or reach that status. The aim of STOC free, a collaborative project between six countries, is to develop and validate a framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CPs across herds, regions or countries. The framework consists of a model combined with a tool to facilitate the collection of the necessary parameters. All relevant actions taken in a CP are included in a Bayesian network model, which allows prior distributions for most parameters. In addition, frequency of occurrence and risk estimates for factors that influence either the probability of introduction or temporary misclassification leading to delayed detection of the infection are included in the model. Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is used as an example disease. Many countries have CPs in place for BVDV and although elements of the CPs are similar, biosecurity measures and testing protocols, including types of tests and testing frequency, as well as target groups, differ widely. Although the initially developed framework is based on BVDV, the aim is to make it sufficiently generic to be adaptable to CPs for other diseases and possibly other species. Thus, STOC free will result in a single general framework, adaptable to multiple disease CPs, which aims to enhance the safety of trade.

Detection of Treponema phagedenis-like antibodies in serum and bulk milk from cows with and without digital dermatitis.

Digital dermatitis (DD) in dairy cows is a widespread disease linked to infection with Treponema. The traditional diagnostic method is clinical inspection, which is subjective and laborious. We explored the performance of 4 different immunogenic proteins from Treponema phagedenis in a new antibody ELISA for analysis of serum or milk. Analysis of samples from 390 cows in 25 herds showed that the ELISA could distinguish the majority of cows with DD from healthy cows. By changing the cutoff and applying parallel or serial testing, high sensitivity or specificity could be achieved. The investigation indicated that aggregated test results can be useful in the assessment of a herd's DD status. In addition, analysis of bulk tank milk samples showed good agreement with results from individual cows. The test system could be useful in research on the epidemiology and immunology of DD.

Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden.

To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors. All scenarios of outbreak control included depopulation of detected herds, 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones, movement tracing, and 3 days national standstill. The effect of availability of surveillance resources, i.e., number of field veterinarians per day, and timeliness of enforcement of interventions, was assessed. With the estimated currently available resources, an FMD outbreak in Sweden is expected to be controlled (i.e., last infected herd detected) within 3 weeks of detection in any evaluated scenario. The density of farms in the area where the epidemic started would have little impact on the time to control the outbreak, but spread in high density areas would require more surveillance resources, compared to areas of lower farm density. The use of vaccination did not result in a reduction in the expected number of infected herds. Preemptive depopulation was able to reduce the number of infected herds in extreme scenarios designed to test a combination of worst-case conditions of virus introduction and spread, but at the cost of doubling the number of herds culled. This likely resulted from a combination of the small outbreaks predicted by the spread model, and the high efficacy of the basic control measures evaluated, under the conditions of the Swedish livestock industry, and considering the assumed control resources available. The results indicate that the duration and extent of FMD outbreaks could be kept limited in Sweden using the EU standard control strategy and a 3 days national standstill.

A questionnaire study of associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds.

In this study associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds were investigated. A case-control study design was used, including existing as well as new cases. Herds were assigned a salmonella status on the basis of antibody analysis of bulk milk samples. Information on potential risk factors was collected from registry data and from farmers via a questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations between salmonella status and potential risk factors. In addition, multivariate analysis with Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) modelling was performed to improve understanding of the complex relationship between all the variables. Because of the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and a large regional variation, exposure of potential risk factors in the high-prevalence region (Öland) were compared to exposure in other regions in Sweden. In total 483 of 996 (48%) farmers responded to the questionnaire, 69 herds had test-positive bulk milk samples. The strongest association with salmonella status was 'presence of salmonella test-positive herds <5 km' (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.0-9.4). Associations with salmonella status were also seen between 'feeding calves residue milk only' (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), 'certified organic herds' (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-4.9) and 'frequently seeing signs of rodents' (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.13-0.97). The ABN model showed associations between Öland and four of the variables: salmonella status, presence of test-positive herds <5km, shared pastures and providing protective clothing for visitors. The latter is probably a reflection of increased disease awareness in Öland. The ABN model showed associations between herd size and housing as well as several management procedures. This provides an explanation why herd size frequently has been identified as a risk factor for salmonella by other studies. The study confirms the importance of local transmission routes for salmonella, but does not identify specific components in this local spread. Therefore, it supports the use of a broad biosecurity approach in the prevention of salmonella. In Öland, some potential risk factors are more common than in other parts of Sweden. Theoretically these could contribute to the spread of salmonella, but this was not confirmed in the present study. The study also highlights the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and large regional variation.

Prevalence and risk factors for overweight horses at premises in Sweden assessed using official animal welfare control data.

BACKGROUND: There are Swedish animal welfare regulations concerning the body condition of horses and general advice on keeping horses including that horses should be fed so that they do not become over- or underweight relative to their use. Compliance is assessed by official animal welfare inspectors. The objective of this study was to determine whether the national animal welfare control database could be used to estimate the prevalence and risk factors for overweight horses in Sweden. The official animal welfare control checklist for horses contains 45 checkpoints (CP) of which CP-8 pertains to the acceptability of the horses' body condition including whether they were under- or overweight. Prevalence of non-compliance with CP-8, with 95 % confidence intervals (CI), were calculated for the years 2010-2013. Associations between risk factors and non-compliance for overweight body condition were estimated using logistic regression and expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95 % CIs. RESULTS: Of 7870 premises with registered horses that were inspected against CP-8, a total of 63 premises had non-compliant inspections due to overweight horses (0.80 %; CI 0.62, 1.02 %). In multivariable analyses, premises that were non-compliant with requirements for the care of sick or injured horses (OR 3.52; CI 1.51, 8.22) or with the requirements for feeding a balanced high-quality diet (OR 5.15; CI 2.49, 10.67) had greater odds of having overweight horses. Premises that also kept other species for meat production were more likely to have overweight horses (OR 2.12; CI 1.18, 3.81) whereas professional horse establishments were less likely (OR 0.09; 0.01, 0.64). Overweight horses were more likely in summer compared to winter (OR 2.18; CI 1.02, 4.70). Premises in regions of Sweden with more horses in relation to the human population were less likely to have overweight horses (OR 0.97; CI 0.95, 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Official animal welfare control data may be used to monitor the premises prevalence of overweight horses in Sweden. Strategies to reduce the prevalence of overweight horses should focus on education about equine care and nutrition, especially summer grazing.