Untangling the environmental and tectonic drivers of the Noto earthquake swarm in Japan.

The underlying mechanism of the ongoing seismic swarm in the Noto Peninsula, Japan, which generates earthquakes at 10 times the average regional rate, remains elusive. We capture the evolution of the subsurface stress state by monitoring changes in seismic wave velocities over an 11-year period. A sustained long-term increase in seismic velocity that is seasonally modulated drops before the earthquake swarm. We use a three-dimensional hydromechanical model to quantify environmentally driven variations in excess pore pressure, revealing its crucial role in governing the seasonal modulation with a stress sensitivity of 6 × 10-9 per pascal. The decrease in seismic velocity aligns with vertical surface uplift, suggesting potential fluid migration from a high-pore pressure zone at depth. Stress changes induced by abnormally intense snow falls contribute to initiating the swarm through subsequent perturbations to crustal pore pressure.

What makes low-frequency earthquakes low frequency.

Low-frequency earthquakes, atypical seismic events distinct from regular earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic megathrust where an aseismic rheology dominates the subduction plate boundary. Well situated to provide clues on the slip regime of this unique faulting environment, their distinctive waveforms reflect either an unusual rupture process or unusually strong attenuation in their source zone. We take advantage of the unique geometry of seismicity in the Nankai Trough to isolate the spectral signature of low-frequency earthquakes after correcting for empirically derived attenuation. We observe that low-frequency earthquake spectra are consistent with the classical earthquake model, yet their rupture duration and stress drop are orders of magnitude different from ordinary earthquakes. We conclude their low-frequency nature primarily results from an atypical seismic rupture process rather than near-source attenuation.

Daily measurement of slow slip from low-frequency earthquakes is consistent with ordinary earthquake scaling.

Slow slip transients on faults can last from seconds to months and stitch together the earthquake cycle. However, no single geophysical instrument is able to observe the full range of slow slip because of bandwidth limitations. Here, we connect seismic and geodetic data from the Mexican subduction zone to explore an instrumental blind spot. We establish a calibration of the daily median amplitude of the seismically recorded low-frequency earthquakes to the daily geodetically recorded moment rate of previously established slow slip events. This calibration allows us to use the precise evolution of low-frequency earthquake activity to quantitatively measure the moment of smaller, subdaily slip events that are unresolvable by geodesy alone. The resulting inferred slow slip moments scale with duration and inter-event time like ordinary earthquakes. These new quantifications help connect slow and fast events in a broad spectrum of transient slip and suggest that slow slip events behave much like ordinary earthquakes.

Revealing the cluster of slow transients behind a large slow slip event.

Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes [Mw (moment magnitude) > 7], slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries through predominantly aseismic rupture. We demonstrate here that large slow slip events are a cluster of short-duration slow transients. Using a dense catalog of low-frequency earthquakes as a guide, we investigate the Mw 7.5 slow slip event that occurred in 2006 along the subduction interface 40 km beneath Guerrero, Mexico. We show that while the long-period surface displacement, as recorded by Global Positioning System, suggests a 6-month duration, the motion in the direction of tectonic release only sporadically occurs over 55 days, and its surface signature is attenuated by rapid relocking of the plate interface. Our proposed description of slow slip as a cluster of slow transients forces us to re-evaluate our understanding of the physics and scaling of slow earthquakes.

The evolving interaction of low-frequency earthquakes during transient slip.

Observed along the roots of seismogenic faults where the locked interface transitions to a stably sliding one, low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) primarily occur as event bursts during slow slip. Using an event catalog from Guerrero, Mexico, we employ a statistical analysis to consider the sequence of LFEs at a single asperity as a point process, and deduce the level of time clustering from the shape of its autocorrelation function. We show that while the plate interface remains locked, LFEs behave as a simple Poisson process, whereas they become strongly clustered in time during even the smallest slow slip, consistent with interaction between different LFE sources. Our results demonstrate that bursts of LFEs can result from the collective behavior of asperities whose interaction depends on the state of the fault interface.