User experience of a seizure risk forecasting app: A mixed methods investigation.

OBJECTIVE: Over recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring the utility of seizure risk forecasting, particularly how it could improve quality of life for people living with epilepsy. This study reports on user experiences and perspectives of a seizure risk forecaster app, as well as the potential impact on mood and adjustment to epilepsy. METHODS: Active app users were asked to complete a survey (baseline and 3-month follow-up) to assess perspectives on the forecast feature as well as mood and adjustment. Post-hoc, nine neutral forecast users (neither agreed nor disagreed it was useful) completed semi-structured interviews, to gain further insight into their perspectives of epilepsy management and seizure forecasting. Non-parametric statistical tests and inductive thematic analyses were used to analyse the quantitative and qualitative data, respectively. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 111 users. Responders consisted of "app users" (n = 58), and "app and forecast users" (n = 53). Of the "app and forecast users", 40 % believed the forecast was accurate enough to be useful in monitoring for seizure risk, and 60 % adopted it for purposes like scheduling activities and helping mental state. Feeling more in control was the most common response to both high and low risk forecasted states. In-depth interviews revealed five broad themes, of which 'frustrations with lack of direction' (regarding their current epilepsy management approach), 'benefits of increased self-knowledge' and 'current and anticipated usefulness of forecasting' were the most common. SIGNIFICANCE: Preliminary results suggest that seizure risk forecasting can be a useful tool for people with epilepsy to make lifestyle changes, such as scheduling daily events, and experience greater feelings of control. These improvements may be attributed, at least partly, to the improvements in self-knowledge experienced through forecast use.

An update on the seizures beget seizures theory.

Seizures beget seizures is a longstanding theory that proposed that seizure activity can impact the structural and functional properties of the brain circuits in ways that contribute to epilepsy progression and the future occurrence of seizures. Originally proposed by Gowers, this theory continues to be quoted in the pathophysiology of epilepsy. We critically review the existing data and observations on the consequences of recurrent seizures on brain networks and highlight a range of factors that speak for and against the theory. The existing literature demonstrates clearly that ictal activity, especially if recurrent, induces molecular, structural, and functional changes including cell loss, connectivity reorganization, changes in neuronal behavior, and metabolic alterations. These changes have the potential to modify the seizure threshold, contribute to disease progression, and recruit wider areas of the epileptic network into epileptic activity. Repeated seizure activity may, thus, act as a pathological positive-feedback mechanism that increases seizure likelihood. On the other hand, the time course of self-limited epilepsies and the presence of seizure remission in two thirds of epilepsy cases and various chronic epilepsy models oppose the theory. Experimental work showed that seizures could induce neural changes that increase the seizure threshold and decrease the risk of a subsequent seizure. Due to the complex nature of epilepsies, it is wrong to consider only seizures as the key factor responsible for disease progression. Epilepsy worsening can be attributed to the various forms of interictal epileptiform activity or underlying disease mechanisms. Although seizure activity can negatively impact brain structure and function, the "seizures beget seizures" theory should not be used dogmatically but with extreme caution.

Ambulatory video EEG extended to 10 days: A retrospective review of a large database of ictal events.

OBJECTIVE: This work aims to determine the ambulatory video electroencephalography monitoring (AVEM) duration and number of captured seizures required to resolve different clinical questions, using a retrospective review of ictal recordings. METHODS: Patients who underwent home-based AVEM had event data analyzed retrospectively. Studies were grouped by clinical indication: differential diagnosis, seizure type classification, or treatment assessment. The proportion of studies where the conclusion was changed after the first seizure was determined, as was the AVEM duration needed for at least 99% of studies to reach a diagnostic conclusion. RESULTS: The referring clinical question was not answered entirely by the first event in 29.6% (n = 227) of studies. Diagnostic and classification indications required a minimum of 7 days for at least 99% of studies to be answered, whilst treatment-assessment required at least 6 days. CONCLUSIONS: At least 7 days of monitoring, and potentially multiple events, are required to adequately answer these clinical questions in at least 99% of patients. The widely applied 72 h or single event recording cut-offs may be inadequate to adequately answer these three indications in a substantial proportion of patients. SIGNIFICANCE: Extended duration of monitoring and capturing multiple events should be considered when attempting to capture seizures on video-EEG.

Forecasting seizure likelihood from cycles of self-reported events and heart rate: a prospective pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Seizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices. METHOD: Seizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed. FINDINGS: The results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance. INTERPRETATION: The results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications. FUNDING: This study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy: Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent electroencephalography.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to forecast their own seizures. This study aimed to assess the relationships between premonitory symptoms, perceived seizure risk, and future and recent self-reported and electroencephalographically (EEG)-confirmed seizures in ambulatory patients with epilepsy in their natural home environments. METHODS: Long-term e-surveys were collected from patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication adherence, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk, and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with the seizure forecasting classifiers and device forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Fifty-four subjects returned 10 269 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed that increased stress (OR = 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12-3.61, AUC = .61, p = .02) was associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. Multivariate analysis showed that previous self-reported seizures (OR = 5.37, 95% CI = 3.53-8.16, AUC = .76, p < .001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.87-5.95, AUC = .69, p < .001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No correlation with medication adherence was found. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings and that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.

Individualized Seizure Cluster Prediction Using Machine Learning and Chronic Ambulatory Intracranial EEG.

Epilepsy patients often experience acute repetitive seizures, known as seizure clusters, which can progress to prolonged seizures or status epilepticus if left untreated. Predicting the onset of seizure clusters is crucial to enable patients to receive preventative treatments. Additionally, studying the patterns of seizure clusters can help predict the seizure type (isolated or cluster) after observing a just occurred seizure. This paper presents machine learning models that use bivariate intracranial EEG (iEEG) features to predict seizure clustering. Specifically, we utilized relative entropy (REN) as a bivariate feature to capture potential differences in brain region interactions underlying isolated and cluster seizures. We analyzed a large ambulatory iEEG dataset collected from 15 patients and spanned up to 2 years of recordings for each patient, consisting of 3341 cluster seizures (from 427 clusters) and 369 isolated seizures. The dataset's substantial number of seizures per patient enabled individualized analyses and predictions. We observed that REN was significantly different between isolated and cluster seizures in majority of the patients. Machine learning models based on REN: 1) predicted whether a seizure will occur soon after a given seizure with up to 69.5% Area under the ROC Curve (AUC), 2) predicted if a seizure is the first one in a cluster with up to 55.3% AUC, outperforming baseline techniques. Overall, our findings could be beneficial in addressing the clinical burden associated with seizure clusters, enabling patients to receive timely treatments and improving their quality of life.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy â€" Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent EEG.

Objective: Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to fore-cast their own seizures. We sought to assess the relationships of premonitory symptoms and perceived seizure risk with future and recent self-reported and EEG-confirmed seizures in the subjects living with epilepsy in their natural home environments. Methods: We collected long-term e-surveys from ambulatory patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication compliance, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with device seizure forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC). Results: Sixty-nine subjects returned 12,590 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed increased stress (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = [1.52, 4.14], p < 0.001) and decreased mood (0.32, [0.13, 0.82], 0.02) were associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. On multivariate analysis, previous self-reported seizures (4.24, [2.69, 6.68], < 0.001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (3.30, [1.97, 5.52], < 0.001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures. Significance: It appears that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings. Our results suggest that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting. Key points: Long-term e-surveys data and concurrent EEG signals were collected across three study sites to assess the ability of the patients to self-forecast their seizures.Patients may tend to self-forecast self-reported seizures that occur in sequential groupings.Factors, such as mood and stress, may not be independent premonitory symptoms but may be the consequence of recent seizures.No ability to self-forecast EEG confirmed seizures was observed in a small cohort with concurrent EEG validation.A mathematic relation between OR and AUC provides a means to compare forecasting performance between survey and device studies.

Seizure occurrence is linked to multiday cycles in diverse physiological signals.

OBJECTIVE: The factors that influence seizure timing are poorly understood, and seizure unpredictability remains a major cause of disability. Work in chronobiology has shown that cyclical physiological phenomena are ubiquitous, with daily and multiday cycles evident in immune, endocrine, metabolic, neurological, and cardiovascular function. Additionally, work with chronic brain recordings has identified that seizure risk is linked to daily and multiday cycles in brain activity. Here, we provide the first characterization of the relationships between the cyclical modulation of a diverse set of physiological signals, brain activity, and seizure timing. METHODS: In this cohort study, 14 subjects underwent chronic ambulatory monitoring with a multimodal wrist-worn sensor (recording heart rate, accelerometry, electrodermal activity, and temperature) and an implanted responsive neurostimulation system (recording interictal epileptiform abnormalities and electrographic seizures). Wavelet and filter-Hilbert spectral analyses characterized circadian and multiday cycles in brain and wearable recordings. Circular statistics assessed electrographic seizure timing and cycles in physiology. RESULTS: Ten subjects met inclusion criteria. The mean recording duration was 232 days. Seven subjects had reliable electroencephalographic seizure detections (mean = 76 seizures). Multiday cycles were present in all wearable device signals across all subjects. Seizure timing was phase locked to multiday cycles in five (temperature), four (heart rate, phasic electrodermal activity), and three (accelerometry, heart rate variability, tonic electrodermal activity) subjects. Notably, after regression of behavioral covariates from heart rate, six of seven subjects had seizure phase locking to the residual heart rate signal. SIGNIFICANCE: Seizure timing is associated with daily and multiday cycles in multiple physiological processes. Chronic multimodal wearable device recordings can situate rare paroxysmal events, like seizures, within a broader chronobiology context of the individual. Wearable devices may advance the understanding of factors that influence seizure risk and enable personalized time-varying approaches to epilepsy care.

Sleep and seizure risk in epilepsy: bed and wake times are more important than sleep duration.

Sleep duration, sleep deprivation and the sleep-wake cycle are thought to play an important role in the generation of epileptic activity and may also influence seizure risk. Hence, people diagnosed with epilepsy are commonly asked to maintain consistent sleep routines. However, emerging evidence paints a more nuanced picture of the relationship between seizures and sleep, with bidirectional effects between changes in sleep and seizure risk in addition to modulation by sleep stages and transitions between stages. We conducted a longitudinal study investigating sleep parameters and self-reported seizure occurrence in an ambulatory at-home setting using mobile and wearable monitoring. Sixty subjects wore a Fitbit smartwatch for at least 28 days while reporting their seizure activity in a mobile app. Multiple sleep features were investigated, including duration, oversleep and undersleep, and sleep onset and offset times. Sleep features in participants with epilepsy were compared to a large (n = 37 921) representative population of Fitbit users, each with 28 days of data. For participants with at least 10 seizure days (n = 34), sleep features were analysed for significant changes prior to seizure days. A total of 4956 reported seizures (mean = 83, standard deviation = 130) and 30 485 recorded sleep nights (mean = 508, standard deviation = 445) were included in the study. There was a trend for participants with epilepsy to sleep longer than the general population, although this difference was not significant. Just 5 of 34 participants showed a significant difference in sleep duration the night before seizure days compared to seizure-free days. However, 14 of 34 subjects showed significant differences between their sleep onset (bed) and/or offset (wake) times before seizure occurrence. In contrast to previous studies, the current study found undersleeping was associated with a marginal 2% decrease in seizure risk in the following 48 h (P < 0.01). Nocturnal seizures were associated with both significantly longer sleep durations and increased risk of a seizure occurring in the following 48 h. Overall, the presented results demonstrated that day-to-day changes in sleep duration had a minimal effect on reported seizures, while patient-specific changes in bed and wake times were more important for identifying seizure risk the following day. Nocturnal seizures were the only factor that significantly increased the risk of seizures in the following 48 h on a group level. Wearables can be used to identify these sleep-seizure relationships and guide clinical recommendations or improve seizure forecasting algorithms.

Space-time resolved inference-based neurophysiological process imaging: Application to resting-state alpha rhythm.

Neural processes are complex and difficult to image. This paper presents a new space-time resolved brain imaging framework, called Neurophysiological Process Imaging (NPI), that identifies neurophysiological processes within cerebral cortex at the macroscopic scale. By fitting uncoupled neural mass models to each electromagnetic source time-series using a novel nonlinear inference method, population averaged membrane potentials and synaptic connection strengths are efficiently and accurately inferred and imaged across the whole cerebral cortex at a resolution afforded by source imaging. The efficiency of the framework enables return of the augmented source imaging results overnight using high performance computing. This suggests it can be used as a practical and novel imaging tool. To demonstrate the framework, it has been applied to resting-state magnetoencephalographic source estimates. The results suggest that endogenous inputs to cingulate, occipital, and inferior frontal cortex are essential modulators of resting-state alpha power. Moreover, endogenous input and inhibitory and excitatory neural populations play varied roles in mediating alpha power in different resting-state sub-networks. The framework can be applied to arbitrary neural mass models and has broad applicability to image neural processes of different brain states.

Water-soluble adhesive for stable long-term ambulatory EEG recordings.

OBJECTIVE: Conventional methods used to adhere EEG electrodes are often uncomfortable. Here, we present a polymer-based water-soluble EEG adhesive that can be maintained for up to 6 days. The primary outcome measure of this study is the median electrode impedance at day 6. METHODS: Impedance measurements for 841 EEG recordings using a 21 channel 10-20 configuration were remotely logged daily for 6 days after connection. A novel electrode adhesive was used to attach EEG electrodes. Patients were instructed to maintain their electrodes on day 4. RESULTS: Median electrode impedances were significantly below 10kOhms for each day of recording, with a median value on day 6 of 4.18kOhms. Impedance values were significantly lower on day 5 than on day 4, demonstrating that the maintenance process can reduce impedance. Except for day 4-5, the median impedance increased each day. No significant difference was found on the first or final day between clinics or residences from areas of different geographic remoteness. CONCLUSIONS: EEG is able to be recorded in patients homes for 6 days with acceptable impedance and no significant effect of regionality or patients age. SIGNIFICANCE: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report in the literature of impedance data from long-term ambulatory EEG studies.

Seizure forecasting using minimally invasive, ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG: Generalizable cross-patient models.

This study describes a generalized cross-patient seizure-forecasting approach using recurrent neural networks with ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG (sqEEG) recordings. Data from six patients diagnosed with refractory epilepsy and monitored with an sqEEG device were used to develop a generalized algorithm for seizure forecasting using long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning classifiers. Electrographic seizures were identified by a board-certified epileptologist. One-minute data segments were labeled as preictal or interictal based on their relationship to confirmed seizures. Data were separated into training and testing data sets, and to compensate for the unbalanced data ratio in training, noise-added copies of preictal data segments were generated to expand the training data set. The mean and standard deviation (SD) of the training data were used to normalize all data, preserving the pseudo-prospective nature of the analysis. Different architecture classifiers were trained and tested using a leave-one-patient-out cross-validation method, and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance classifiers. The importance of each input signal was evaluated using a leave-one-signal-out method with repeated training and testing for each classifier. Cross-patient classifiers achieved performance significantly better than chance in four of the six patients and an overall mean AUC of 0.602 ± 0.126 (mean ± SD). A time in warning of 37.386% ± 5.006% (mean ± std) and sensitivity of 0.691 ± 0.068 (mean ± std) were observed for patients with better than chance results. Analysis of input channels showed a significant contribution (p < .05) by the Fourier transform of signals channels to overall classifier performance. The relative contribution of input signals varied among patients and architectures, suggesting that the inclusion of all signals contributes to robustness in a cross-patient classifier. These early results show that it is possible to forecast seizures training with data from different patients using two-channel ultra-long-term sqEEG.

Ambient air pollution and epileptic seizures: A panel study in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging evidence has shown that ambient air pollution affects brain health, but little is known about its effect on epileptic seizures. This work aimed to assess the association between daily exposure to ambient air pollution and the risk of epileptic seizures. METHODS: This study used epileptic seizure data from two independent data sources (NeuroVista and Seer App seizure diary). In the NeuroVista data set, 3273 seizures were recorded using intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) from 15 participants with refractory focal epilepsy in Australia in 2010-2012. In the seizure diary data set, 3419 self-reported seizures were collected through a mobile application from 34 participants with epilepsy in Australia in 2018-2021. Daily average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), ozone (O3 ), particulate matter ≤10 µm in diameter (PM10 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) were retrieved from the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) based on participants' postcodes. A patient-time-stratified case-crossover design with the conditional Poisson regression model was used to determine the associations between air pollutants and epileptic seizures. RESULTS: A significant association between CO concentrations and epileptic seizure risks was observed, with an increased seizure risk of 4% (relative risk [RR]: 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.07) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase of CO concentrations (0.13 parts per million), whereas no significant associations were found for the other four air pollutants in the whole study population. Female participants had a significantly increased risk of seizures when exposed to elevated CO and NO2 , with RRs of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.08) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.16), respectively. In addition, a significant association was observed between CO and the risk of subclinical seizures (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12-1.28). SIGNIFICANCE: Daily exposure to elevated CO concentrations may be associated with an increased risk of epileptic seizures, especially for subclinical seizures.

Seizure forecasting using minimally invasive, ultra-long-term subcutaneous electroencephalography: Individualized intrapatient models.

OBJECTIVE: One of the most disabling aspects of living with chronic epilepsy is the unpredictability of seizures. Cumulative research in the past decades has advanced our understanding of the dynamics of seizure risk. Technological advances have recently made it possible to record pertinent biological signals, including electroencephalogram (EEG), continuously. We aimed to assess whether patient-specific seizure forecasting is possible using remote, minimally invasive ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG. METHODS: We analyzed a two-center cohort of ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG recordings, including six patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy monitored for 46-230 days with median 18 h/day of recorded data, totaling >11 000 h of EEG. Total electrographic seizures identified by visual review ranged from 12 to 36 per patient. Three candidate subject-specific long short-term memory network deep learning classifiers were trained offline and pseudoprospectively on preictal (1 h before) and interictal (>1 day from seizures) EEG segments. Performance was assessed relative to a random predictor. Periodicity of the final forecasts was also investigated with autocorrelation. RESULTS: Depending on each architecture, significant forecasting performance was achieved in three to five of six patients, with overall mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .65-.74. Significant forecasts showed sensitivity ranging from 64% to 80% and time in warning from 10.9% to 44.4%. Overall, the output of the forecasts closely followed patient-specific circadian patterns of seizure occurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates proof-of-principle for the possibility of subject-specific seizure forecasting using a minimally invasive subcutaneous EEG device capable of ultra-long-term at-home recordings. These results are encouraging for the development of a prospective seizure forecasting trial with minimally invasive EEG.

Ambulatory seizure forecasting with a wrist-worn device using long-short term memory deep learning.

The ability to forecast seizures minutes to hours in advance of an event has been verified using invasive EEG devices, but has not been previously demonstrated using noninvasive wearable devices over long durations in an ambulatory setting. In this study we developed a seizure forecasting system with a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm, using a noninvasive wrist-worn research-grade physiological sensor device, and tested the system in patients with epilepsy in the field, with concurrent invasive EEG confirmation of seizures via an implanted recording device. The system achieved forecasting performance significantly better than a random predictor for 5 of 6 patients studied, with mean AUC-ROC of 0.80 (range 0.72-0.92). These results provide the first clear evidence that direct seizure forecasts are possible using wearable devices in the ambulatory setting for many patients with epilepsy.

Multiday cycles of heart rate are associated with seizure likelihood: An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Circadian and multiday rhythms are found across many biological systems, including cardiology, endocrinology, neurology, and immunology. In people with epilepsy, epileptic brain activity and seizure occurrence have been found to follow circadian, weekly, and monthly rhythms. Understanding the relationship between these cycles of brain excitability and other physiological systems can provide new insight into the causes of multiday cycles. The brain-heart link has previously been considered in epilepsy research, with potential implications for seizure forecasting, therapy, and mortality (i.e., sudden unexpected death in epilepsy). METHODS: We report the results from a non-interventional, observational cohort study, Tracking Seizure Cycles. This study sought to examine multiday cycles of heart rate and seizures in adults with diagnosed uncontrolled epilepsy (N=31) and healthy adult controls (N=15) using wearable smartwatches and mobile seizure diaries over at least four months (M=12.0, SD=5.9; control M=10.6, SD=6.4). Cycles in heart rate were detected using a continuous wavelet transform. Relationships between heart rate cycles and seizure occurrence were measured from the distributions of seizure likelihood with respect to underlying cycle phase. FINDINGS: Heart rate cycles were found in all 46 participants (people with epilepsy and healthy controls), with circadian (N=46), about-weekly (N=25) and about-monthly (N=13) rhythms being the most prevalent. Of the participants with epilepsy, 19 people had at least 20 reported seizures, and 10 of these had seizures significantly phase locked to their multiday heart rate cycles. INTERPRETATION: Heart rate cycles showed similarities to multiday epileptic rhythms and may be comodulated with seizure likelihood. The relationship between heart rate and seizures is relevant for epilepsy therapy, including seizure forecasting, and may also have implications for cardiovascular disease. More broadly, understanding the link between multiday cycles in the heart and brain can shed new light on endogenous physiological rhythms in humans. FUNDING: This research received funding from the Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council (investigator grant 1178220), the Australian Government BioMedTech Horizons program, and the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.

Seizure Forecasting Using a Novel Sub-Scalp Ultra-Long Term EEG Monitoring System.

Accurate identification of seizure activity, both clinical and subclinical, has important implications in the management of epilepsy. Accurate recognition of seizure activity is essential for diagnostic, management and forecasting purposes, but patient-reported seizures have been shown to be unreliable. Earlier work has revealed accurate capture of electrographic seizures and forecasting is possible with an implantable intracranial device, but less invasive electroencephalography (EEG) recording systems would be optimal. Here, we present preliminary results of seizure detection and forecasting with a minimally invasive sub-scalp device that continuously records EEG. Five participants with refractory epilepsy who experience at least two clinically identifiable seizures monthly have been implanted with sub-scalp devices (Minder®), providing two channels of data from both hemispheres of the brain. Data is continuously captured via a behind-the-ear system, which also powers the device, and transferred wirelessly to a mobile phone, from where it is accessible remotely via cloud storage. EEG recordings from the sub-scalp device were compared to data recorded from a conventional system during a 1-week ambulatory video-EEG monitoring session. Suspect epileptiform activity (EA) was detected using machine learning algorithms and reviewed by trained neurophysiologists. Seizure forecasting was demonstrated retrospectively by utilizing cycles in EA and previous seizure times. The procedures and devices were well-tolerated and no significant complications have been reported. Seizures were accurately identified on the sub-scalp system, as visually confirmed by periods of concurrent conventional scalp EEG recordings. The data acquired also allowed seizure forecasting to be successfully undertaken. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC score) achieved (0.88), which is comparable to the best score in recent, state-of-the-art forecasting work using intracranial EEG.

Forecasting Seizure Likelihood With Wearable Technology.

The unpredictability of epileptic seizures exposes people with epilepsy to potential physical harm, restricts day-to-day activities, and impacts mental well-being. Accurate seizure forecasters would reduce the uncertainty associated with seizures but need to be feasible and accessible in the long-term. Wearable devices are perfect candidates to develop non-invasive, accessible forecasts but are yet to be investigated in long-term studies. We hypothesized that machine learning models could utilize heart rate as a biomarker for well-established cycles of seizures and epileptic activity, in addition to other wearable signals, to forecast high and low risk seizure periods. This feasibility study tracked participants' (n = 11) heart rates, sleep, and step counts using wearable smartwatches and seizure occurrence using smartphone seizure diaries for at least 6 months (mean = 14.6 months, SD = 3.8 months). Eligible participants had a diagnosis of refractory epilepsy and reported at least 20 seizures (mean = 135, SD = 123) during the recording period. An ensembled machine learning and neural network model estimated seizure risk either daily or hourly, with retraining occurring on a weekly basis as additional data was collected. Performance was evaluated retrospectively against a rate-matched random forecast using the area under the receiver operating curve. A pseudo-prospective evaluation was also conducted on a held-out dataset. Of the 11 participants, seizures were predicted above chance in all (100%) participants using an hourly forecast and in ten (91%) participants using a daily forecast. The average time spent in high risk (prediction time) before a seizure occurred was 37 min in the hourly forecast and 3 days in the daily forecast. Cyclic features added the most predictive value to the forecasts, particularly circadian and multiday heart rate cycles. Wearable devices can be used to produce patient-specific seizure forecasts, particularly when biomarkers of seizure and epileptic activity cycles are utilized.

Seizure likelihood varies with day-to-day variations in sleep duration in patients with refractory focal epilepsy: A longitudinal electroencephalography investigation.

BACKGROUND: While the effects of prolonged sleep deprivation (≥24 h) on seizure occurrence has been thoroughly explored, little is known about the effects of day-to-day variations in the duration and quality of sleep on seizure probability. A better understanding of the interaction between sleep and seizures may help to improve seizure management. METHODS: To explore how sleep and epileptic seizures are associated, we analysed continuous intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) recordings collected from 10 patients with refractory focal epilepsy undergoing ordinary life activities between 2010 and 2012 from three clinical centres (Austin Health, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, and St Vincent's Hospital of the Melbourne University Epilepsy Group). A total of 4340 days of sleep-wake data were analysed (average 434 days per patient). EEG data were sleep scored using a semi-automated machine learning approach into wake, stages one, two, and three non-rapid eye movement sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep categories. FINDINGS: Seizure probability changes with day-to-day variations in sleep duration. Logistic regression models revealed that an increase in sleep duration, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, lowered the odds of seizure by 27% in the following 48 h. Following a seizure, patients slept for longer durations and if a seizure occurred during sleep, then sleep quality was also reduced with increased time spent aroused from sleep and reduced rapid eye movement sleep. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that day-to-day deviations from regular sleep duration correlates with changes in seizure probability. Sleeping longer, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, may offer protective effects for patients with refractory focal epilepsy, reducing seizure risk. Furthermore, the occurrence of a seizure may disrupt sleep patterns by elongating sleep and, if the seizure occurs during sleep, reducing its quality.