On the path to rabies elimination: The need for risk assessments to improve administration of post-exposure prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Costs of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) often remain high in regions where rabies has been controlled in dogs, presenting a challenge for sustaining rabies elimination programmes. We investigated the potential for bite patient risk assessments to improve PEP provision and surveillance in settings approaching elimination of dog-mediated rabies. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study of patients presenting to animal bite treatment centres (ABTCs) on the island province of Bohol in the Philippines to investigate the health status of biting dogs and to quantify current expenditure on PEP. RESULTS: Incidence of bite patients presenting to ABTCs was high (>300/100,000 persons/year) and increasing, resulting in substantial health provider costs. Over $142,000 was spent on PEP in 2013 for a population of 1.3 million. From follow up of 3820 bite patients we found that  >92% were bitten by healthy dogs (alive 14 days after the bite) and just 1.4% were bitten by probable or confirmed rabid dogs. The status of dogs that bit 6% of patients could not be determined. During the course of investigations of bites by suspect dogs, we were able to obtain samples for case confirmation, identify exposed persons who had not sought PEP as well as in-contact dogs at risk of developing rabies. We calculate that expenditure on PEP could at least be halved through more judicious approaches to provision of PEP, based on the histories of biting animals determined through risk assessments with bite patients. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a One Health approach to surveillance based on Integrated Bite Case Management could improve the sustainability and effectiveness of rabies elimination programmes while also improving patient care by identifying those genuinely in need of lifesaving PEP.

The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak.

The case-reproduction ratio for the spread of an infectious disease is a critically important concept for understanding dynamics of epidemics and for evaluating impact of control measures on spread of infection. Reliable estimation of this ratio is a problem central to epidemiology and is most often accomplished by fitting dynamic models to data and estimating combinations of parameters that equate to the case-reproduction ratio. Here, we develop a novel parameter-free method that permits direct estimation of the history of transmission events recoverable from detailed observation of a particular epidemic. From these reconstructed 'epidemic trees', case-reproduction ratios can be estimated directly. We develop a bootstrap algorithm that generates percentile intervals for these estimates that shows the procedure to be both precise and robust to possible uncertainties in the historical reconstruction. Identifying and 'pruning' branches from these trees whose occurrence might have been prevented by implementation of more stringent control measures permits estimation of the possible efficacy of these alternative measures. Examination of the cladistic structure of these trees as a function of the distance of each case from its infection source reveals useful insights about the relationship between long-distance transmission events and epidemic size. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK.

Efficacy of a partnership in enhancing Veterans Affairs cardiac transplantation activity.

BACKGROUND: Despite a nationwide surplus of cardiac transplantation programs, the number of United States armed forces veterans who receive heart transplants has declined over the past several years. This study reviews the efficacy of a partnership between a Veterans Affairs hospital and a university hospital in maximizing the access of veterans to the limited donor heart supply. METHODS: As part of a contract-based sharing agreement between the University of Wisconsin Hospital and the William S. Middleton Memorial Veterans Affairs Hospital, 25 veterans underwent orthotopic heart transplantation between October 1993 and April 1995. Care of the patients was provided at the Veterans Affairs Hospital. The transplantation operations were performed at the University of Wisconsin Hospital, and all patients were transferred back to the Veterans Affairs Hospital 5 to 7 days afterward. All patients were men (mean age, 52.1 +/- 2.1 years) and were referred from Veterans Affairs hospitals in nine different states. RESULTS: During the 19-month period, the average length of hospital stay for pretransplantation evaluation was 7.0 +/- 0.7 days (range, 2 to 15 days). Average status I waiting time was 26.9 +/- 3.3 days (range, 5 to 54 days); the average waiting time for status II was 115.1 +/- 16 days (range, 15 to 242 days). Posttransplantation length of stay at the Veterans Affairs Hospital was 22 +/- 1.8 days (range, 11 to 41 days). Only 1 patient (4%) experienced a lethal postoperative complication. Ten patients (40%) exhibited graft rejection within the first month after transplantation, requiring treatment with augmented immunosuppressive therapy (steroids, orally in 2 patients and intravenously in 8). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 4% (1 patient). The cause of death was acute grade 4 graft rejection 3 weeks after transplantation. Overall patient survival was 96%. CONCLUSIONS: A partnership between a Veterans Affairs hospital and a university hospital committed to transplantation can increase Veterans Affairs cardiac transplantation activity, with excellent 30-day mortality and early survival results.

Exposure to ceramic man-made mineral fibres.

Ceramic fibres (also known as refractory fibres) are regarded here as man-made mineral fibres (MMMF) capable of withstanding temperatures of 1000-1600 degrees C without appreciable distortion or softening. Ceramic fibres are manufactured largely from the aluminosilicate group of minerals but some contain only alumina, zirconia or silica. Simultaneous personal gravimetric and optical fibre count samples were taken throughout the industry. It has not been possible to correlate gravimetric results with fibre counts in any meaningful way. The general conclusions are as follows: (a) gravimetrically, exposures ranged from less than 1 mg/m3 for light tasks to over 10 mg/m3 for some insulation workers. Exposures above 10 mg/m3 were not necessarily associated with correspondingly high fibre counts; (b) fibre counts rarely exceeded 1 f/ml, and it appears that ceramic fibre materials, in company with other MMMF, do not readily produce high airborne fibre counts; (c) control of dust from mineral wools to 5 mg/m3 achieves control to below 1 f/ml. This relationship does not hold for superfine MMMF and does not always hold for ceramic fibres.