Analyzing the impact of social factors on homelessness: a fuzzy cognitive map approach.

BACKGROUND: The forces which affect homelessness are complex and often interactive in nature. Social forces such as addictions, family breakdown, and mental illness are compounded by structural forces such as lack of available low-cost housing, poor economic conditions, and insufficient mental health services. Together these factors impact levels of homelessness through their dynamic relations. Historic models, which are static in nature, have only been marginally successful in capturing these relationships. METHODS: Fuzzy Logic (FL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are particularly suited to the modeling of complex social problems, such as homelessness, due to their inherent ability to model intricate, interactive systems often described in vague conceptual terms and then organize them into a specific, concrete form (i.e., the FCM) which can be readily understood by social scientists and others. Using FL we converted information, taken from recently published, peer reviewed articles, for a select group of factors related to homelessness and then calculated the strength of influence (weights) for pairs of factors. We then used these weighted relationships in a FCM to test the effects of increasing or decreasing individual or groups of factors. Results of these trials were explainable according to current empirical knowledge related to homelessness. RESULTS: Prior graphic maps of homelessness have been of limited use due to the dynamic nature of the concepts related to homelessness. The FCM technique captures greater degrees of dynamism and complexity than static models, allowing relevant concepts to be manipulated and interacted. This, in turn, allows for a much more realistic picture of homelessness. Through network analysis of the FCM we determined that Education exerts the greatest force in the model and hence impacts the dynamism and complexity of a social problem such as homelessness. CONCLUSIONS: The FCM built to model the complex social system of homelessness reasonably represented reality for the sample scenarios created. This confirmed that the model worked and that a search of peer reviewed, academic literature is a reasonable foundation upon which to build the model. Further, it was determined that the direction and strengths of relationships between concepts included in this map are a reasonable approximation of their action in reality. However, dynamic models are not without their limitations and must be acknowledged as inherently exploratory.

A scoping review of spatial cluster analysis techniques for point-event data.

Spatial cluster analysis is a uniquely interdisciplinary endeavour, and so it is important to communicate and disseminate ideas, innovations, best practices and challenges across practitioners, applied epidemiology researchers and spatial statisticians. In this research we conducted a scoping review to systematically search peer-reviewed journal databases for research that has employed spatial cluster analysis methods on individual-level, address location, or x and y coordinate derived data. To illustrate the thematic issues raised by our results, methods were tested using a dataset where known clusters existed. Point pattern methods, spatial clustering and cluster detection tests, and a locally weighted spatial regression model were most commonly used for individual-level, address location data (n = 29). The spatial scan statistic was the most popular method for address location data (n = 19). Six themes were identified relating to the application of spatial cluster analysis methods and subsequent analyses, which we recommend researchers to consider; exploratory analysis, visualization, spatial resolution, aetiology, scale and spatial weights. It is our intention that researchers seeking direction for using spatial cluster analysis methods, consider the caveats and strengths of each approach, but also explore the numerous other methods available for this type of analysis. Applied spatial epidemiology researchers and practitioners should give special consideration to applying multiple tests to a dataset. Future research should focus on developing frameworks for selecting appropriate methods and the corresponding spatial weighting schemes.

Social interactions of eating behaviour among high school students: a cellular automata approach.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity in children and adolescents is a global epidemic posing problems for both developed and developing nations. The prevalence is particularly alarming in developed nations, such as the United States, where approximately one in three school-aged adolescents (ages 12-19) are overweight or obese. Evidence suggests that weight gain in school-aged adolescents is related to energy imbalance exacerbated by the negative aspects of the school food environment, such as presence of unhealthy food choices. While a well-established connection exists between the food environment, presently there is a lack of studies investigating the impact of the social environment and associated interactions of school-age adolescents. This paper uses a mathematical modelling approach to explore how social interactions among high school adolescents can affect their eating behaviour and food choice. METHODS: In this paper we use a Cellular Automata (CA) modelling approach to explore how social interactions among school-age adolescents can affect eating behaviour, and food choice. Our CA model integrates social influences and transition rules to simulate the way individuals would interact in a social community (e.g., school cafeteria). To replicate these social interactions, we chose the Moore neighbourhood which allows all neighbours (eights cells in a two-dimensional square lattice) to influence the central cell. Our assumption is that individuals belong to any of four states; Bring Healthy, Bring Unhealthy, Purchase Healthy, and Purchase Unhealthy, and will influence each other according to parameter settings and transition rules. Simulations were run to explore how the different states interact under varying parameter settings. RESULTS: This study, through simulations, illustrates that students will change their eating behaviour from unhealthy to healthy as a result of positive social and environmental influences. In general, there is one common characteristic of changes across time; students with similar eating behaviours tend to form groups, represented by distinct clusters. Transition of healthy and unhealthy eating behaviour is non-linear and a sharp change is observed around a critical point where positive and negative influences are equal. CONCLUSIONS: Conceptualizing the social environment of individuals is a crucial step to increasing our understanding of obesogenic environments of high-school students, and moreover, the general population. Incorporating both contextual, and individual determinants found in real datasets, in our model will greatly enhance calibration of future models. Complex mathematical modelling has a potential to contribute to the way public health data is collected and analyzed.