A shift in transitional forests of the North American boreal will persist through 2100.

High northern latitude changes with Arctic amplification across a latitudinal forest gradient suggest a shift towards an increased presence of trees and shrubs. The persistence of change may depend on the future scenarios of climate and on the current state, and site history, of forest structure. Here, we explore the persistence of a gradient-based shift in the boreal by connecting current forest patterns to recent tree cover trends and future modeled estimates of canopy height through 2100. Results show variation in the predicted potential height changes across the structural gradient from the boreal forest through the taiga-tundra ecotone. Positive potential changes in height are concentrated in transitional forests, where recent positive changes in cover prevail, while potential change in boreal forest is highly variable. Results are consistent across climate scenarios, revealing a persistent biome shift through 2100 in North America concentrated in transitional landscapes regardless of climate scenario.

Eyes of the world on a warmer, less frozen, and greener Arctic.

Rapid atmospheric warming and sea-ice retreat are driving widespread changes in Arctic ecosystems, among the most pervasive of which is the "greening of the Arctic"-an increase in the cover and biomass of vegetation observed by satellites across much of the Arctic tundra biome. Determining the drivers, impacts, and feedbacks of Arctic greening requires continued investment in robust field, remote-sensing, and model-based capabilities, and improved integration of the knowledge base of Arctic peoples. These tools and approaches support the triangulation of complex problems and the development of improved projections for the warmer Arctic tundra biome of the future.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget.

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Vegetation on mesic loamy and sandy soils along a 1700-km maritime Eurasia Arctic Transect.

QUESTIONS: How do plant communities on zonal loamy vs. sandy soils vary across the full maritime Arctic bioclimate gradient? How are plant communities of these areas related to existing vegetation units of the European Vegetation Classification? What are the main environmental factors controlling transitions of vegetation along the bioclimate gradient? LOCATION: 1700-km Eurasia Arctic Transect (EAT), Yamal Peninsula and Franz Josef Land (FJL), Russia. METHODS: The Braun-Blanquet approach was used to sample mesic loamy and sandy plots on 14 total study sites at six locations, one in each of the five Arctic bioclimate subzones and the forest-tundra transition. Trends in soil factors, cover of plant growth forms (PGFs) and species diversity were examined along the summer warmth index (SWI) gradient and on loamy and sandy soils. Classification and ordination were used to group the plots and to test relationships between vegetation and environmental factors. RESULTS: Clear, mostly non-linear, trends occurred for soil factors, vegetation structure and species diversity along the climate gradient. Cluster analysis revealed seven groups with clear relationships to subzone and soil texture. Clusters at the ends of the bioclimate gradient (forest-tundra and polar desert) had many highly diagnostic taxa, whereas clusters from the Yamal Peninsula had only a few. Axis 1 of a DCA was strongly correlated with latitude and summer warmth; Axis 2 was strongly correlated with soil moisture, percentage sand and landscape age. CONCLUSIONS: Summer temperature and soil texture have clear effects on tundra canopy structure and species composition, with consequences for ecosystem properties. Each layer of the plant canopy has a distinct region of peak abundance along the bioclimate gradient. The major vegetation types are weakly aligned with described classes of the European Vegetation Checklist, indicating a continuous floristic gradient rather than distinct subzone regions. The study provides ground-based vegetation data for satellite-based interpretations of the western maritime Eurasian Arctic, and the first vegetation data from Hayes Island, Franz Josef Land, which is strongly separated geographically and floristically from the rest of the gradient and most susceptible to on-going climate change.

Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s.

Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest-tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in 11, widely distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very high-resolution photography from the Cold War-era 'Gambit' and 'Corona' satellite surveillance systems (1965-1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within-landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of 11 ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder (Alnus) shrubland cover increased 5.3-25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch (Larix) cover increased 3.0-6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice-rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine (Pinus) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned-ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid-1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub-dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch-dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia.