A novel imaging index for predicting adverse progression in acute-on-chronic liver failure related to hepatitis B virus: the low erector spine index.

BACKGROUND: It is widely known that muscle mass influences the outcomes of many chronic diseases. Erector spine mass is a convenient parameter obtained from routine abdominal computed tomography (CT). The clinical application value of erector spine mass, and whether erector spine mass could predict the outcome of disease has not been studied. AIM: To evaluate the role of the erector spine index (ESI) calculated based on abdominal CT imaging in the progression of acute-on-chronic liver failure related to the hepatitis B virus (HBV-ACLF). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 118 HBV-ACLF patients and calculated the ESI (the total erector spine area normalized for height2 in meters) for each patient through abdominal CT. The findings were analyzed regarding the progression of HBV-ACLF and the ESI at baseline, including mortality and the development of complications. RESULTS: The ESI level was associated with mortality and the development of complications. During the 90-day follow-up period, patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher mortality than those with a high ESI (≥ 12.05 cm2/m2) (51.7% vs. 26.7%), and the cumulative survival rates were 71.0%±4.6 and 85.8%±3.9, respectively (log-rank P = 0.003). The hazard ratios (HRs) calculated using univariable and multivariable analyses were 2.23(95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-4.21, P = 0.005) and 2.52 (95% CI: 1.34-9.24, P = 0.011), respectively. Patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher incidences of kidney dysfunction (43.5% vs. 23.2%, P = 0.029; log-rank P = 0.017) and hepatic encephalopathy (39.6% vs. 14.0%, P = 0.003; log-rank P = 0.010) than those with a high ESI. A low ESI was an independent risk factor for kidney dysfunction (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.05-2.93, P = 0.043) and the development of hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted HR = 2.26; 95% CI: 2.05-3.13, P = 0.036). In addition, the presence of hepatic encephalopathy (the odds ratio (OR) = 2.26, 95% CI: 2.05-3.18, P = 0.006), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (OR = 3.95, 95% CI: 1.01-5.46, P = 0.037), and kidney dysfunction (OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.02-9.64, P = 0.032) was independently associated with a low ESI in patients. CONCLUSION: A low ESI is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, as well as the development of kidney dysfunction and hepatic encephalopathy.

Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation. RESULTS: Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736-0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743-0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735-0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726-0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child-Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation. CONCLUSION: The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.

High levels of serum interleukin-6 increase mortality of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) present a complex and poor prognosis. Systemic inflammation plays an important role in its pathogenesis, and interleukin-6 (IL-6) as a pro-inflammatory cytokine is related with severe liver impairment and also plays a role in promoting liver regeneration. Whether serum IL-6 influences HBV-ACLF prognosis has not been studied. AIM: To determine the impact of serum IL-6 on outcome of patients with HBV-ACLF. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 412 HBV-ACLF patients. The findings were analyzed with regard to mortality and the serum IL-6 level at baseline, as well as dynamic changes of serum IL-6 within 4 wk. RESULTS: The serum IL-6 level was associated with mortality. Within 4 wk, deceased patients had significantly higher levels of IL-6 at baseline than surviving patients [17.9 (7.3-57.6) vs 10.4 (4.7-22.3), P = 0.011]. Patients with high IL-6 levels (> 11.8 pg/mL) had a higher mortality within 4 wk than those with low IL-6 levels (≤ 11.8 pg/mL) (24.2% vs 13.2%, P = 0.004). The odds ratios calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression were 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.26-3.51, P = 0.005) and 2.11 (95%CI: 1.15-3.90, P = 0.017), respectively. The mortality between weeks 5 and 8 in patients with high IL-6 levels at 4 wk was 15.0%, which was significantly higher than the 6.6% mortality rate in patients with low IL-6 levels at 4 wk (hazard ratio = 2.39, 95%CI: 1.05-5.41, P = 0.037). The mortality was 5.0% in patients with high IL-6 levels at baseline and low IL-6 levels at 4 wk, 7.5% in patients with low IL-6 levels both at baseline and at 4 wk, 11.5% in patients with low IL-6 levels at baseline and high IL-6 levels at 4 wk, and 16.7% in patients with high IL-6 levels both at baseline and at 4 wk. The increasing trend of the mortality rate with the dynamic changes of IL-6 was significant (P for trend = 0.023). CONCLUSION: A high level of serum IL-6 is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Furthermore, a sustained high level or dynamic elevated level of serum IL-6 indicates a higher mortality.