Machine learning and user interface for cyber risk management of water infrastructure.

With the continuous modernization of water plants, the risk of cyberattacks on them potentially endangers public health and the economic efficiency of water treatment and distribution. This article signifies the importance of developing improved techniques to support cyber risk management for critical water infrastructure, given an evolving threat environment. In particular, we propose a method that uniquely combines machine learning, the theory of belief functions, operational performance metrics, and dynamic visualization to provide the required granularity for attack inference, localization, and impact estimation. We illustrate how the focus on visual domain-aware anomaly exploration leads to performance improvement, more precise anomaly localization, and effective risk prioritization. Proposed elements of the method can be used independently, supporting the exploration of various anomaly detection methods. It thus can facilitate the effective management of operational risk by providing rich context information and bridging the interpretation gap.

Study protocol for "In-vehicle sensors to detect changes in cognition of older drivers".

BACKGROUND: Driving is a complex behavior that may be affected by early changes in the cognition of older individuals. Early changes in driving behavior may include driving more slowly, making fewer and shorter trips, and errors related to inadequate anticipation of situations. Sensor systems installed in older drivers' vehicles may detect these changes and may generate early warnings of possible changes in cognition. METHOD: A naturalistic longitudinal design is employed to obtain continuous information on driving behavior that will be compared with the results of extensive cognitive testing conducted every 3 months for 3 years. A driver facing camera, forward facing camera, and telematics unit are installed in the vehicle and data downloaded every 3 months when the cognitive tests are administered. RESULTS: Data processing and analysis will proceed through a series of steps including data normalization, adding information on external factors (weather, traffic conditions), and identifying critical features (variables). Traditional prediction modeling results will be compared with Recurring Neural Network (RNN) approach to produce Driver Behavior Indices (DBIs), and algorithms to classify drivers within age, gender, ethnic group membership, and other potential group characteristics. CONCLUSION: It is well established that individuals with progressive dementias are eventually unable to drive safely, yet many remain unaware of their cognitive decrements. Current screening and evaluation services can test only a small number of individuals with cognitive concerns, missing many who need to know if they require treatment. Given the increasing number of sensors being installed in passenger vehicles and pick-up trucks and their increasing acceptability, reconfigured in-vehicle sensing systems could provide widespread, low-cost early warnings of cognitive decline to the large number of older drivers on the road in the U.S. The proposed testing and evaluation of a readily and rapidly available, unobtrusive in-vehicle sensing system could provide the first step toward future widespread, low-cost early warnings of cognitive change for this large number of older drivers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Use of Sensors for Fall Prediction in Older Persons: A Scoping Review.

The application of technological advances and clear articulation of how they improve patient outcomes are not always well described in the literature. Our research team investigated the numerous ways to measure conditions and behaviors that precede patient events and could signal an important change in health through a scoping review. We searched for evidence of technology use in fall prediction in the population of older adults in any setting. The research question was described in the population-concept-context format: "What types of sensors are being used in the prediction of falls in older persons?" The purpose was to examine the numerous ways to obtain continuous measurement of conditions and behaviors that precede falls. This area of interest may be termed emerging knowledge . Implications for research include increased attention to human-centered design, need for robust research trials that clearly articulate study design and outcomes, larger sample sizes and randomization of subjects, consistent oversight of institutional review board processes, and elucidation of the human costs and benefits to health and science.

Exploring investor-business-market interplay for business success prediction.

The success of the business directly contributes towards the growth of the nation. Hence it is important to evaluate and predict whether the business will be successful or not. In this study, we use the company's dataset which contains information from startups to Fortune 1000 companies to create a machine learning model for predicting business success. The main challenge of business success prediction is twofold: (1) Identifying variables for defining business success; (2) Feature selection and feature engineering based on Investor-Business-Market interrelation to provide a successful outcome of the predictive modeling. Many studies have been carried out using only the available features to predict business success, however, there is still a challenge to identify the most important features in different business angles and their interrelation with business success. Motivated by the above challenge, we propose a new approach by defining a new business target based on the definition of business success used in this study and develop additional features by carrying out statistical analysis on the training data which highlights the importance of investments, business, and market features in forecasting business success instead of using only the available features for modeling. Ensemble machine learning methods as well as existing supervised learning methods were applied to predict business success. The results demonstrated a significant improvement in the overall accuracy and AUC score using ensemble methods. By adding new features related to the Investor-Business-Market entity demonstrated good performance in predicting business success and proved how important it is to identify significant relationships between these features to cover different business angles when predicting business success.

NON-INTRUSIVE DROWSINESS DETECTION TECHNIQUES AND THEIR APPLICATION IN DETECTING EARLY DEMENTIA IN OLDER DRIVERS.

Drowsy drivers cause the most car accidents thus, adopting an efficient drowsiness detection system can alert the driver promptly and precisely which will reduce the numbers of accidents and also save a lot of money. This paper discusses many tactics and methods for drowsy driving warning. The non-intrusive nature of most of the strategies mentioned and contrasted means both vehicular and behavioural techniques are examined here. Thus, the latest strategies are studied and discussed for both groups, together with their benefits and drawbacks. The goal of this review was to identify a practical and low-cost approach for analysing elder drivers' behaviour.

Abnormal Driving Detection using GPS Data.

Given a GPS dataset comprising driving records captured at one-second intervals, this research addresses the challenge of Abnormal Driving Detection (ADD). The study introduces an integrated approach that leverages data preprocessing, dimensionality reduction, and clustering techniques. Speed Over Ground (SOG), Course Over Ground (COG), longitude (lon), and latitude (lat) data are aggregated into minute-level segments. We use Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to reduce dimensionality, enabling K-means clustering to identify distinctive driving patterns. Results showcase the methodology's effectiveness in distinguishing normal from abnormal driving behaviors, offering promising insights for driver safety, insurance risk assessment, and personalized interventions.

Anomalous Behavior Detection in Trajectory Data of Older Drivers.

Given a road network and a set of trajectory data, the anomalous behavior detection (ABD) problem is to identify drivers that show significant directional deviations, hard-brakings, and accelerations in their trips. The ABD problem is important in many societal applications, including Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) detection and safe route recommendations for older drivers. The ABD problem is computationally challenging due to the large size of temporally-detailed trajectories dataset. In this paper, we propose an Edge-Attributed Matrix that can represent the key properties of temporally-detailed trajectory datasets and identify abnormal driving behaviors. Experiments using real-world datasets demonstrated that our approach identifies abnormal driving behaviors.

In-vehicle Sensing and Data Analysis for Older Drivers with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Driving is a complex daily activity indicating age and disease-related cognitive declines. Therefore, deficits in driving performance compared with ones without mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can reflect changes in cognitive functioning. There is increasing evidence that unobtrusive monitoring of older adults' driving performance in a daily-life setting may allow us to detect subtle early changes in cognition. The objectives of this paper include designing low-cost in-vehicle sensing hardware capable of obtaining high-precision positioning and telematics data, identifying important indicators for early changes in cognition, and detecting early-warning signs of cognitive impairment in a truly normal, day-to-day driving condition with machine learning approaches. Our statistical analysis comparing drivers with MCI to those without reveals that those with MCI exhibit smoother and safer driving patterns. This suggests that drivers with MCI are cognizant of their condition and tend to avoid erratic driving behaviors. Furthermore, our Random Forest models identified the number of night trips, number of trips, and education as the most influential factors in our data evaluation.

Methods and Tools for Monitoring Driver's Behavior.

In-vehicle sensing technology has gained tremendous attention due to its ability to support major technological developments, such as connected vehicles and self-driving cars. In-vehicle sensing data are invaluable and important data sources for traffic management systems. In this paper we propose an innovative architecture of unobtrusive in-vehicle sensors and present methods and tools that are used to measure the behavior of drivers. The proposed architecture including methods and tools are used in our NIH project to monitor and identify older drivers with early dementia.

The forecast of COVID-19 spread risk at the county level.

The early detection of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is important to save people's lives and restart the economy quickly and safely. People's social behavior, reflected in their mobility data, plays a major role in spreading the disease. Therefore, we used the daily mobility data aggregated at the county level beside COVID-19 statistics and demographic information for short-term forecasting of COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. The daily data are fed to a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the next two weeks. A significant average correlation was achieved (r=0.83 (p = 0.005)) between the model predicted and actual accumulated cases in the interval from August 1, 2020 until January 22, 2021. The model predictions had r > 0.7 for 87% of the counties across the United States. A lower correlation was reported for the counties with total cases of <1000 during the test interval. The average mean absolute error (MAE) was 605.4 and decreased with a decrease in the total number of cases during the testing interval. The model was able to capture the effect of government responses on COVID-19 cases. Also, it was able to capture the effect of age demographics on the COVID-19 spread. It showed that the average daily cases decreased with a decrease in the retiree percentage and increased with an increase in the young percentage. Lessons learned from this study not only can help with managing the COVID-19 pandemic but also can help with early and effective management of possible future pandemics. The code used for this study was made publicly available on https://github.com/Murtadha44/covid-19-spread-risk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40537-021-00491-1.

Text Data Augmentation for Deep Learning.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is one of the most captivating applications of Deep Learning. In this survey, we consider how the Data Augmentation training strategy can aid in its development. We begin with the major motifs of Data Augmentation summarized into strengthening local decision boundaries, brute force training, causality and counterfactual examples, and the distinction between meaning and form. We follow these motifs with a concrete list of augmentation frameworks that have been developed for text data. Deep Learning generally struggles with the measurement of generalization and characterization of overfitting. We highlight studies that cover how augmentations can construct test sets for generalization. NLP is at an early stage in applying Data Augmentation compared to Computer Vision. We highlight the key differences and promising ideas that have yet to be tested in NLP. For the sake of practical implementation, we describe tools that facilitate Data Augmentation such as the use of consistency regularization, controllers, and offline and online augmentation pipelines, to preview a few. Finally, we discuss interesting topics around Data Augmentation in NLP such as task-specific augmentations, the use of prior knowledge in self-supervised learning versus Data Augmentation, intersections with transfer and multi-task learning, and ideas for AI-GAs (AI-Generating Algorithms). We hope this paper inspires further research interest in Text Data Augmentation.

Modeling and tracking Covid-19 cases using Big Data analytics on HPCC system platformm.

This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title "Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics." The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239-42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease's ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual's exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.

Deep Learning applications for COVID-19.

This survey explores how Deep Learning has battled the COVID-19 pandemic and provides directions for future research on COVID-19. We cover Deep Learning applications in Natural Language Processing, Computer Vision, Life Sciences, and Epidemiology. We describe how each of these applications vary with the availability of big data and how learning tasks are constructed. We begin by evaluating the current state of Deep Learning and conclude with key limitations of Deep Learning for COVID-19 applications. These limitations include Interpretability, Generalization Metrics, Learning from Limited Labeled Data, and Data Privacy. Natural Language Processing applications include mining COVID-19 research for Information Retrieval and Question Answering, as well as Misinformation Detection, and Public Sentiment Analysis. Computer Vision applications cover Medical Image Analysis, Ambient Intelligence, and Vision-based Robotics. Within Life Sciences, our survey looks at how Deep Learning can be applied to Precision Diagnostics, Protein Structure Prediction, and Drug Repurposing. Deep Learning has additionally been utilized in Spread Forecasting for Epidemiology. Our literature review has found many examples of Deep Learning systems to fight COVID-19. We hope that this survey will help accelerate the use of Deep Learning for COVID-19 research.

Rethinking Skin Lesion Segmentation in a Convolutional Classifier.

Melanoma is a fatal form of skin cancer when left undiagnosed. Computer-aided diagnosis systems powered by convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can improve diagnostic accuracy and save lives. CNNs have been successfully used in both skin lesion segmentation and classification. For reasons heretofore unclear, previous works have found image segmentation to be, conflictingly, both detrimental and beneficial to skin lesion classification. We investigate the effect of expanding the segmentation border to include pixels surrounding the target lesion. Ostensibly, segmenting a target skin lesion will remove inessential information, non-lesion skin, and artifacts to aid in classification. Our results indicate that segmentation border enlargement produces, to a certain degree, better results across all metrics of interest when using a convolutional based classifier built using the transfer learning paradigm. Consequently, preprocessing methods which produce borders larger than the actual lesion can potentially improve classifier performance, more than both perfect segmentation, using dermatologist created ground truth masks, and no segmentation altogether.

Neural network approach to background modeling for video object segmentation.

This paper presents a novel background modeling and subtraction approach for video object segmentation. A neural network (NN) architecture is proposed to form an unsupervised Bayesian classifier for this application domain. The constructed classifier efficiently handles the segmentation in natural-scene sequences with complex background motion and changes in illumination. The weights of the proposed NN serve as a model of the background and are temporally updated to reflect the observed statistics of background. The segmentation performance of the proposed NN is qualitatively and quantitatively examined and compared to two extant probabilistic object segmentation algorithms, based on a previously published test pool containing diverse surveillance-related sequences. The proposed algorithm is parallelized on a subpixel level and designed to enable efficient hardware implementation.