The American English version of the validated French Flare Assessment in RA Questionnaire (FLARE-RA).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate use of a British English version of the validated French FLARE-RA questionnaire among American English speaking patients. In addition, to create a culturally adapted American English (AmE) FLARE-RA questionnaire and to examine its attributes of patient-reported RA flare status. METHODS: Using standardized cultural adaptation guidelines, we cognitively debriefed 25 American English speaking rheumatoid arthritis (RA) outpatients and created AmE-FLARE-RA with their input. One hundred three additional RA patients were recruited. Patients completed the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3), patient global visual analogue scale (VAS), AmE-FLARE-RA, and self-reports of flare. Physician global VAS, physician-assessed flare, swollen and tender joint count (TJC), and clinical disease activity index (CDAI) were documented. AmE-FLARE-RA and disease activity measures were compared between patient-reported and physician-reported flare categories. RESULTS: Patients were female (89%), with mean (SD) age 51.1 (± 15.3) years and mean disease duration (SD) 11.9 (± 10.1) years, with 26% in remission/low disease activity. Total AmE-FLARE-RA scores, RAPID3, CDAI, and patient global VAS were significantly higher for both patient-reported flares and physician-reported flares compared with non-flaring patients by self- or physician report (p < 0.05). Total AmE-FLARE-RA scores correlated significantly with RAPID3 (corr = 0.50, p < 0.0001) and with CDAI (corr = 0.45, p < 0.0001). Across "no flares," "one flare," and "several flare" groups, there was a non-significant increase in AmE-FLARE-RA scores (p = 0.07). CONCLUSION: The British English FLARE-RA was successfully adapted for AmE-speaking RA patients. AmE-FLARE-RA significantly correlated with RAPID3 and CDAI and distinguished between patient-reported and physician-reported flares, making it useful to detect flares in American RA patients.Key Points• The American English FLARE-RA (AmE-FLARE-RA) questionnaire is the result of cognitive debriefing with American RA patients using the British English version of the validated French FLARE-RA and incorporates patient-recommended language modifications..• Patients self-reporting flares had significantly higher AmE-FLARE-RA scores, compared with those without flares at the time of visit. AmE-FLARE-RA scores correlate with RAPID3 and CDAI.• There was a non-statistically significant trend using the AmE-FLARE-RA scores when examining patients with no flare, one flare, or several flares.• AmE-FLARE-RA total scores are uniformly elevated (~ 6.0 on a 0-10 scale), regardless of discordance between patient and MD assessment of flare at time of visit (~ 30%).

Remodeling of the HDL proteome with treatment response to abatacept or adalimumab in the AMPLE trial of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To evaluate changes in the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) proteome and HDL function in active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients initiating therapy with abatacept or adalimumab in the Abatacept Versus Adalimumab Comparison in Biologic-Naïve RA Subjects with Background Methotrexate (AMPLE) study. METHODS: Ultra high-pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled with ion mobility mass spectrometry (LC-IM-MS) was used to analyze proteins associated with immunoaffinity-captured HDL from plasma of 30 patients with RA randomized to either abatacept (n = 15) or adalimumab (n = 15) therapy. Paraoxonase 1 (PON1) activity, HDL anti-oxidant capacity, cholesterol profiles, and homocysteine levels were also measured at baseline and following treatment. Repeated-measures analyses were performed using mixed-effect linear models to model the within-subject covariance over time. RESULTS: In models controlling for age, sex and treatment group, improvement in inflammation measured by decreases in CRP was associated with improvement in HDL function and changes in several HDL-associated proteins including significant decreases in lipopolysaccharide-binding protein, serum amyloid A-I (SAA-I) and inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H4 (p values < 0.05). Improvement in disease activity was also associated with changes in multiple HDL-associated proteins. Adalimumab was associated with higher PON1 activity, HDL-associated serotransferrin, and HDL-associated immunoglobulin J chain, and lower HDL-associated SAA-I over time compared with abatacept. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in inflammation associated with treatment of RA, using either abatacept or adalimumab in the AMPLE study, was associated with improvement in HDL function and significant alterations in the HDL proteome, including proteins involved in the immune response, proteinase inhibition, and lipid metabolism.

Secular trends in the impact factors of SLE publications over a 45-year period-a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed publication bias in the field of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) by conducting a search of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) on SLE therapies that had been published over the past 45 years. Our aim was to assess a potential publication bias by determining whether RCTs reporting positive results, RCTs with placebo arms, biologics RCTs, and industry-funded RCTs are more likely to be published in journals with higher impact factors (IFs). METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of all RCTs registered in PubMed between 1 January 1975 and 1 November 2016. Each RCT was classified as having a positive result (PR) or a negative result (NR). The IF of each journal was determined for the year of publication. RESULTS: Our search yielded 233 relevant RCTs. There was no significant difference in IFs between studies with NRs and those with PRs or between studies that were financially supported by commercial companies compared to studies that were not. However, there was a significant correlation between sample size and the journal's IF. CONCLUSIONS: IF scores of RCTs in the field of SLE are influenced by sample size and not biased by either a tendency to report PRs or by being funded by pharmaceutical companies or any other commercial sources.

There is a need for new systemic sclerosis subset criteria. A content analytic approach.

OBJECTIVES: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is heterogenous. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the purpose, strengths and limitations of existing SSc subset criteria, and identify ideas among experts about subsets. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with randomly sampled international SSc experts. The interview transcripts underwent an iterative process with text deconstructed to single thought units until a saturated conceptual framework with coding was achieved and respondent occurrence tabulated. Serial cross-referential analyses of clusters were developed. RESULTS: Thirty experts from 13 countries were included; 67% were male, 63% were from Europe and 37% from North America; median experience of 22.5 years, with a median of 55 new SSc patients annually. Three thematic clusters regarding subsetting were identified: research and communication; management; and prognosis (prediction of internal organ involvement, survival). The strength of the limited/diffuse system was its ease of use, however 10% stated this system had marginal value. Shortcomings of the diffuse/limited classification were the risk of misclassification, predictions/generalizations did not always hold true, and that the elbow or knee threshold was arbitrary. Eighty-seven percent use more than 2 subsets including: SSc sine scleroderma, overlap conditions, antibody-determined subsets, speed of progression, and age of onset (juvenile, elderly). CONCLUSIONS: We have synthesized an international view of the construct of SSc subsets in the modern era. We found a number of factors underlying the construct of SSc subsets. Considerations for the next phase include rate of change and hierarchal clustering (e.g. limited/diffuse, then by antibodies).

Defining Skin Ulcers in Systemic Sclerosis: Systematic Literature Review and Proposed World Scleroderma Foundation (WSF) definition.

PURPOSE: There is a lack of a valid, definition for skin ulcers in SSc to be used in clinical trials. Our aim was to develop a consensus definition for SSc-skin ulcers based on the results of a systematic literature review (SLR) for skin ulcer definitions and expert opinion; and to evaluate its face validity, reliability and feasibility. METHODS: SLR for skin ulcer definitions was conducted using PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane library for articles published from inception to January 1st, 2016. SSc experts were to discuss the definitions' categories and vote for the relevant terms. Reliability of the definition were tested in a second expert meeting, seven SSc experts evaluated 7 SSc pts with skin lesions twice. Face validity and feasibility evaluated by sending out case report forms(CRFs) to 4 SSc experts, they were asked to use the definition in 5 pts each. RESULTS: A total of 3464 abstracts and titles were screened, and 446 articles were fully evaluated. Of these, 66 met eligibility criteria and skin ulcer definitions were extracted. SSc experts discussed, refined and voted on the consensus definition using nominal process. Kappa for inter-, intra-rater rater agreement was 0.51, 0.90 respectively. The mean time to decide if the lesion is an ulcer was 7.4 sec. All investigators endorsed the face validity of the new definition in the CRFs. CONCLUSION: Using a SLR and a nominal technique, we developed a preliminary consensus-based definition of SSc-skin ulcers. Face validity, feasibility and reliability were demonstrated for the developed definition.

Model-Informed Development and Registration of a Once-Daily Regimen of Extended-Release Tofacitinib.

Extended-release (XR) formulations enable less frequent dosing vs. conventional (e.g., immediate release (IR)) formulations. Regulatory registration of such formulations typically requires pharmacokinetic (PK) and clinical efficacy data. Here we illustrate a model-informed, exposure-response (E-R) approach to translate controlled trial data from one formulation to another without a phase III trial, using a tofacitinib case study. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). E-R analyses were conducted using validated clinical endpoints from phase II dose-response and nonclinical dose fractionation studies of the IR formulation. Consistent with the delay in clinical response dynamics relative to PK, average concentration was established as the relevant PK parameter for tofacitinib efficacy and supported pharmacodynamic similarity. These evaluations, alongside demonstrated equivalence in total systemic exposure between IR and XR formulations, provided the basis for the regulatory approval of tofacitinib XR once daily by the US Food and Drug Administration.

Certolizumab pegol in combination with dose-optimised methotrexate in DMARD-naïve patients with early, active rheumatoid arthritis with poor prognostic factors: 1-year results from C-EARLY, a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of certolizumab pegol (CZP)+dose-optimised methotrexate (MTX) versus placebo (PBO)+dose-optimised MTX in inducing and sustaining clinical remission in DMARD-naïve patients with moderate-to-severe, active, progressive rheumatoid arthritis (RA), with poor prognostic factors over 52 weeks. METHODS: DMARD-naïve patients with ≤1 year of active RA were randomised (3:1) in a double-blind manner to CZP (400 mg Weeks 0, 2, 4, then 200 mg Q2W to Week 52)+MTX or PBO+MTX (the mean optimised-MTX dose=21 and 22 mg/week, respectively). Sustained remission (sREM) and sustained low disease activity (sLDA; DAS28(ESR)<2.6 and DAS28(ESR)≤3.2, respectively, at both Weeks 40 and 52) were the primary and secondary endpoints. RESULTS: Patients were randomised to CZP+MTX (n=660) and PBO+MTX (n=219). At Week 52, significantly more patients assigned to CZP+MTX compared with PBO+MTX achieved sREM (28.9% vs 15.0%, p<0.001) and sLDA (43.8% vs 28.6%, p<0.001). Inhibition of radiographic progression and improvements in physical functioning were significantly greater for CZP+MTX versus PBO+MTX (van der Heijde modified total Sharp score (mTSS) mean absolute change from baseline (CFB): 0.2 vs 1.8, p<0.001, rate of mTSS non-progressors: 70.3% vs 49.7%, p<0.001; least squares (LS) mean CFB in Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI): -1.00 vs -0.82, p<0.001). Incidence of adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs was similar between treatment groups. Infection was the most frequent AE, with higher incidence for CZP+MTX (71.8/100 patient-years (PY)) versus PBO+MTX (52.7/100 PY); the rate of serious infection was similar between CZP+MTX (3.3/100 PY) and PBO+MTX (3.7/100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: CZP+dose-optimised MTX treatment of DMARD-naïve early RA resulted in significantly more patients achieving sREM and sLDA, improved physical function and inhibited structural damage compared with PBO+dose-optimised MTX. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01519791.

2015 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new evidence-based, pharmacologic treatment guideline for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We conducted systematic reviews to synthesize the evidence for the benefits and harms of various treatment options. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology to rate the quality of evidence. We employed a group consensus process to grade the strength of recommendations (either strong or conditional). A strong recommendation indicates that clinicians are certain that the benefits of an intervention far outweigh the harms (or vice versa). A conditional recommendation denotes uncertainty over the balance of benefits and harms and/or more significant variability in patient values and preferences. RESULTS: The guideline covers the use of traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), biologic agents, tofacitinib, and glucocorticoids in early (<6 months) and established (≥6 months) RA. In addition, it provides recommendations on using a treat-to-target approach, tapering and discontinuing medications, and the use of biologic agents and DMARDs in patients with hepatitis, congestive heart failure, malignancy, and serious infections. The guideline addresses the use of vaccines in patients starting/receiving DMARDs or biologic agents, screening for tuberculosis in patients starting/receiving biologic agents or tofacitinib, and laboratory monitoring for traditional DMARDs. The guideline includes 74 recommendations: 23% are strong and 77% are conditional. CONCLUSION: This RA guideline should serve as a tool for clinicians and patients (our two target audiences) for pharmacologic treatment decisions in commonly encountered clinical situations. These recommendations are not prescriptive, and the treatment decisions should be made by physicians and patients through a shared decision-making process taking into account patients' values, preferences, and comorbidities. These recommendations should not be used to limit or deny access to therapies.

Two dosing regimens of certolizumab pegol in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate clinical efficacy and safety of 2 certolizumab pegol (CZP) maintenance dosing regimens plus methotrexate (MTX) in active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients achieving the American College of Rheumatology 20% improvement criteria (ACR20) after the CZP 200 mg every 2 weeks open-label run-in period. METHODS: DOSEFLEX (dosing flexibility) was a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized study with an open-label run-in phase. During the run-in phase, all patients received CZP 400 mg (weeks 0, 2, and 4) and 200 mg every 2 weeks to week 16. Week 16 ACR20 responders were randomized 1:1:1 at week 18 to CZP 200 mg every 2 weeks, 400 mg every 4 weeks, or placebo. RESULTS: A total of 209 (of 333) patients were randomized at week 18 (CZP: 200 mg, n = 70; 400 mg, n = 70; placebo, n = 69). Groups had similar baseline characteristics (week 0). Week 34 ACR20 response rates were comparable between the CZP 200 mg every 2 weeks and the 400 mg every 4 weeks groups (67.1% versus 65.2%), which was significantly higher than placebo (44.9%; P = 0.009 and P = 0.017). ACR50/70 and remission criteria were met more frequently in CZP groups than placebo at week 34, with similar responses between anti-tumor necrosis factor-experienced and naive patients. Improvements from baseline Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index scores were maintained in CZP groups from week 16 to 34 while worsening on placebo. Adverse event (AE) rates in the double-blind phase were 62.9% versus 60.9% versus 62.3%; serious AE rates were 7.1% versus 2.9% versus 0.0% (CZP 200 mg, 400 mg, and placebo groups). CONCLUSION: In active RA patients with an incomplete MTX response, CZP 200 mg every 2 weeks and 400 mg every 4 weeks were comparable and better than placebo for maintaining clinical response to week 4 following a 16-week, open-label run-in phase.

A cautionary tale: dealing with missing data in clinical trials for rheumatic diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Missing data are found in nearly all clinical trials and it is important to use appropriate statistical techniques to analyse clinical trials with missing data. We discuss common statistical methods for tackling missing data and how to handle results when the analyses give different results. METHODS: Using data from a placebo-controlled, randomised bovine Type I collagen (CI) study in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc), we apply different statistical approaches to handling missing data. We also describe simple ways to ascertain the type of missing data in the data set, to the extent possible. RESULTS: We examine eleven different methods to impute missing data. An analysis based on completers alone (complete case analysis and available case analysis) and the last observation carried forward (LOCF) methods require underlying assumptions which are rarely met in practice. Multiple imputation, mixed effects, and repeated measures try to account for the differences among patients and account for patient's specific response patterns, although the assumption that the missing data is directly related to the observed characteristics may well not be true. The joint likelihood based model combines the mixed effect model and logistic regression model to explicitly handle data not missing at random and so it is more realistic and potentially takes an additional step toward decreasing bias. CONCLUSIONS: We discussed various ways of handling missing data and provide recommendations on how to arrive at a conclusion when different statistical approaches to analyse missing data analysis in clinical trials give conflicting answers.

Recognition of pulmonary hypertension in the rheumatology community: lessons from a Quality Enhancement Research Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to utilise the Quality Enhancement Research Initiative in Systemic Sclerosis (QuERI-SSc) to measure and reduce a perceived gap in the diagnosis of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Rheumatologists enrolled patients with SSc (aged ≥ 18 years) and provided data on a panel of diagnostic tests over 3 years. Pulmonary function testing, echocardiography, 6-minute walk distance, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide assays, high-resolution computed tomography of the lungs, and ventilation/perfusion scan plus right heart catheterisation (RHC; when appropriate) were emphasised. Exclusion criteria included previously documented PAH, interstitial lung disease, and SSc overlapping with other connective tissue disease. RESULTS: Participating rheumatologists enrolled 207 patients with SSc (90% female; 80% white), with a median age of 57 years and median disease duration of 5 years. A total of 82% of patients were classified as New York Heart Association functional class I and II; of these patients, 177 had an echocardiogram at enrolment and 191 at any time during the study. Of those who met study-specified criteria for RHC at enrolment, only 3 of 7 patients underwent RHC. CONCLUSIONS: The screening algorithm was successful in identifying patients with mild impairment. Although specific tools were recommended for screening PAH in patients with SSc, results indicate that significant diagnostic care gaps still exist in the general rheumatology community. Better understanding and adherence to guidelines could improve the care and, ideally, outcomes of these high-risk patients.

Resource utilization and direct medical costs in adult systemic lupus erythematosus patients from a commercially insured population.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to estimate annual health care resource use and medical costs associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a large US managed care health plan. METHODS: Subjects at least 18 years of age and with claims-based evidence of SLE (ICD-9-CM 710.0x) were identified from a health plan database. Subjects were matched on the basis of demographic and clinical characteristics to unaffected controls. Resource use and costs were determined during a fixed 12-month period. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to adjust costs for demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: In total, 1278 newly diagnosed SLE subjects were matched to 3834 controls, and 10,152 subjects with existing SLE were matched to 30,456 controls. Health care resource use was significantly higher among SLE subjects than matched controls, including average annual numbers of ambulatory visits, specialist visits, and inpatient hospital stays (all p < 0.001). SLE subjects had significantly higher overall mean annual medical costs than matched controls (newly diagnosed: $19,178 vs. $4909; existing: $15,487 vs. $5156; both p < 0.001). Evidence of specific organ involvement including renal failure and central nervous system complications, were each associated with increased costs (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Subjects with SLE have high resource use and medical costs relative to controls.

Incidence and prevalence of adult systemic lupus erythematosus in a large US managed-care population.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to determine the incidence and prevalence of adult systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a large US managed-care population. METHODS: Subject inclusion in the incidence cohort required a medical claim with an SLE diagnosis and a service date from 2003 to 2008 that satisfied the following criteria: 1) ≥18 years on service date; 2) continuously enrolled for 24 months before and 12 months after service date; 3) in the 12 months after service date, ≥ one inpatient claim or ≥ two office or ER visits with an SLE diagnosis; 4) no SLE diagnosis 24 months prior to service date; and 5) no SLE medications 12 months prior to service date. Prevalence cohort subjects were identified using a similar algorithm and were not required to satisfy criteria 4) and 5). RESULTS: A total of 1,557 subjects were included in the incidence cohort, and 15,396 were included in the prevalence cohort. The overall age- and gender-adjusted SLE incidence rate (2003-2008) was 7.22 cases per 100,000 person-years. The annual prevalence of SLE (per 100,000 individuals) varied from 81.07 in 2003 to 102.94 in 2008. CONCLUSION: The SLE incidence in this large managed-care plan with geographic diversity was slightly higher than previous estimates, and the prevalence was within the range of previous estimates.

Brief report: effect of ambrisentan treatment on exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension in systemic sclerosis: a prospective single-center, open-label pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension (ePH) may represent an early, clinically relevant phase in the spectrum of pulmonary vascular disease. The purpose of this pilot study was to describe the changes in hemodynamics and exercise capacity in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) spectrum-associated ePH treated with open-label daily ambrisentan. METHODS: Patients were treated with ambrisentan, 5 mg or 10 mg once daily, for 24 weeks. At baseline and 24 weeks, patients with SSc spectrum disorders exercised in a supine position, on a lower extremity cycle ergometer. All patients had normal hemodynamics at rest. We defined baseline ePH as a mean pulmonary artery pressure of >30 mm Hg with maximum exercise and a transpulmonary gradient (TPG) of >15 mm Hg. The primary end point was change in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) with exercise. Secondary end points included an improvement from baseline in 6-minute walking distance, health-related quality of life assessments, and cardiopulmonary hemodynamics. RESULTS: Of the 12 enrolled patients, 11 completed the study. At 24 weeks there were improvements in mean exercise PVR (85.8 dynes × second/cm(5) ; P = 0.003) and mean distance covered during 6-minute walk (44.5 meters; P = 0.0007). Improvements were also observed in mean exercise cardiac output (1.4 liters/minute; P = 0.006), mean pulmonary artery pressure (-4.1 mm Hg; P = 0.02), and total pulmonary resistance (-93.0 dynes × seconds/cm(5) ; P = 0.0008). Three patients developed resting pulmonary arterial hypertension during the 24 weeks. CONCLUSION: Exercise hemodynamics and exercise capacity in patients with SSc spectrum-associated ePH improved over 24 weeks with exposure to ambrisentan. Placebo-controlled studies are needed to confirm whether this is a drug-related effect and to determine optimal therapeutic regimens for patients with ePH.

Patterns and predictors of change in outcome measures in clinical trials in scleroderma: an individual patient meta-analysis of 629 subjects with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the range and responsiveness to change of clinical outcome measures and study predictors of clinical response in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) in the context of clinical trials. METHODS: Data were combined from 629 patients with dcSSc who participated in 7 multicenter clinical therapeutic trials. Trials used common outcome measures: modified Rodnan skin thickness score (MRSS), Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index (HAQ DI), patient's global assessment of disease activity, pulmonary function tests (forced vital capacity, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide), hand span, and oral aperture. RESULTS: The combined database included 629 patients (82% women, mean ± SD age 46.5 ± 11.8 years, mean ± SD disease duration 19.4 ± 15.9 months). Outcomes tended to improve during trials for patients with more severe disease at study entry and to worsen for patients with less severe disease at entry. Disease duration was mildly negatively predictive of change in MRSS at 6 months (r = -0.27, P < 0.001), and substantial bidirectional variation in change in MRSS and HAQ DI score was seen across the spectrum of disease duration. Sixty-three percent of patients with "early" disease (disease duration <18 months) had a decline in MRSS, and 37% had an increase in MRSS. Eighty-one percent of patients with "late" disease (disease duration ≥ 18 months) had a decline in MRSS, and 19% had an increase in MRSS. Multivariate mixed models did not demonstrate that any baseline variables were strongly predictive of subsequent outcome. CONCLUSION: Among patients with dcSSc enrolled in clinical trials, standard outcome measures tend to improve in those with more severe disease at study entry and to worsen in those with less severe disease at entry. Overall, the MRSS improves during trials, while HAQ DI scores and lung function are mostly static. None of these variables, including disease duration, reliably identifies groups of subjects whose MRSS will predictably increase or decrease in the course of a clinical trial. These findings have important implications for clinical trial design in scleroderma.

Handling missing data issues in clinical trials for rheumatic diseases.

Missing data are ubiquitous in clinical trials for rheumatic diseases, and it is important to accommodate them using appropriate statistical techniques. We review some of the basic considerations for missing data and survey a range of statistical techniques for analysis of longitudinal clinical trial data with missingness. Using clinical trial data from patients with diffuse systemic sclerosis, we show that different approaches to handling missing data can lead to different conclusions on the efficacy of the treatment. We then suggest how such discrepancies might be addressed. In particular, we emphasize that the commonly used method in rheumatic clinical trials of carrying the last observation forward to impute missing values should not be the primary analysis. We review software for analyzing different types of missing data and discuss our freely available software library for analyzing the more difficult but more realistic situation when the probability of dropout or missing data may depend on the unobserved missing value.

Preliminary criteria for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis: results of a Delphi Consensus Study from EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research Group.

OBJECTIVE: To identify a core set of preliminary items considered as important for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: A list of items provided by European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Scleroderma Trial and Research(EUSTAR) centres were subjected to a Delphi exercise among 110 experts in the field of SSc. In round 1, experts were asked to choose the items they considered as the most important for the very early diagnosis of SSc. In round 2, experts were asked to reconsider the items accepted after the first stage. In round 3, the clinical relevance of selected items and their importance as measures that would lead to an early referral process were rated using appropriateness scores. RESULTS: Physicians from 85 EUSTAR centres participated in the study and provided an initial list of 121 items. After three Delphi rounds, the steering committee, with input from external experts, collapsed the 121 items into three domains containing seven items, developed as follows: skin domain (puffy fingers/puffy swollen digits turning into sclerodactily); vascular domain (Raynaud's phenomenon, abnormal capillaroscopy with scleroderma pattern) and laboratory domain (antinuclear, anticentromere and antitopoisomerase-I antibodies). Finally, the whole assembly of EUSTAR centres ratified with a majority vote the results in a final face-to-face meeting. CONCLUSION: The three Delphi rounds allowed us to identify the items considered by experts as necessary for the very early diagnosis of SSc. The validation of these items to establish diagnostic criteria is currently ongoing in a prospective observational cohort.