Demographic transition and factors associated with remaining in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and related evacuation orders.

INTRODUCTION: Demographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City-located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant-in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition. RESULTS: The overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people-11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64-1.85]) than women; among people aged 40-64 years (1.40 [1.24-1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09-1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50-1.94]) than among those who were not. DISCUSSION: Despite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.

Impacts of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident on emergency medical service times in Soma District, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of the 3.11 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident) on the emergency medical service (EMS) system in Fukushima. METHODS: Total EMS time (from EMS call to arrival at a hospital) was assessed in the EMS system of Soma district, located 10-40 km north of the nuclear plant, from 11 March to 31 December 2011. We defined the affected period as when total EMS time was significantly extended after the disasters compared with the historical control data from 1 January 2009 to 10 March 2011. To identify risk factors associated with the extension of total EMS time after the disasters, we investigated trends in 3 time segments of total EMS time; response time, defined as time from an EMS call to arrival at the location, on-scene time, defined as time from arrival at the location to departure, and transport time, defined as time from departure from the location to arrival at a hospital. RESULTS: For the affected period from week 0 to week 11, the median total EMS time was 36 (IQR 27-52) minutes, while that in the predisaster control period was 31 (IQR 24-40) min. The percentage of transports exceeding 60 min in total EMS time increased from 8.2% (584/7087) in the control period to 22.2% (151/679) in the affected period. Among the 3 time segments, there was the most change in transport time (standardised mean difference: 0.41 vs 0.13-0.17). CONCLUSIONS: EMS transport was significantly delayed for ∼3 months, from week 1 to 11 after the 3.11 triple disaster. This delay may be attributed to malfunctioning emergency hospitals after the triple disaster.

Estimated association between dwelling soil contamination and internal radiation contamination levels after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Measurement of soil contamination levels has been considered a feasible method for dose estimation of internal radiation exposure following the Chernobyl disaster by means of aggregate transfer factors; however, it is still unclear whether the estimation of internal contamination based on soil contamination levels is universally valid or incident specific. METHODS: To address this issue, we evaluated relationships between in vivo and soil cesium-137 (Cs-137) contamination using data on internal contamination levels among Minamisoma (10-40 km north from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant), Fukushima residents 2-3 years following the disaster, and constructed three models for statistical analysis based on continuous and categorical (equal intervals and quantiles) soil contamination levels. RESULTS: A total of 7987 people with a mean age of 55.4 years underwent screening of in vivo Cs-137 whole-body counting. A statistically significant association was noted between internal and continuous Cs-137 soil contamination levels (model 1, p value <0.001), although the association was slight (relative risk (RR): 1.03 per 10 kBq/m(2) increase in soil contamination). Analysis of categorical soil contamination levels showed statistical (but not clinical) significance only in relatively higher soil contamination levels (model 2: Cs-137 levels above 100 kBq/m(2) compared to those <25 kBq/m(2), RR=1.75, p value <0.01; model 3: levels above 63 kBq/m(2) compared to those <11 kBq/m(2), RR=1.45, p value <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of internal and soil contamination were not associated, and only loose/small associations were observed in areas with slightly higher levels of soil contamination in Fukushima, representing a clear difference from the strong associations found in post-disaster Chernobyl. These results indicate that soil contamination levels generally do not contribute to the internal contamination of residents in Fukushima; thus, individual measurements are essential for the precise evaluation of chronic internal radiation contamination.

Dependence of radiation dose on the behavioral patterns among school children: a retrospective analysis 18 to 20 months following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan.

After radioactive incidents, the exposure risk in daily activities among children is a major public concern. However, there are limited methods available for evaluation of this risk, which is essential to future health risk management. To this end, this study assessed the relationship between behavioral patterns of school children and radiation exposure for a period of 18-20 months following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident. The assessed population comprised 520 school children from Minamisoma city, located 20 km north of the nuclear plant. Data for the doses were obtained using individual dosimeters and from results of a behavior survey administered by the City Office. The mean value of the doses in the study period was 0.34 mSv, with a standard deviation of 0.14 mSv, indicating an annual dose of ∼1.36 mSv, which includes doses from natural sources. Our results showed that behavior with respect to outdoor activities had no statistically significant relationship to the dose. A 0.1 µSv/h increase in the air dose rate at home was associated with a 10% increase in the dose; however, a 0.01 µSv/h increase in the air dose rate on the school grounds was associated with a 2% increase in the dose. This study indicates that the air contamination levels at the places where children spend most of their day are the significant predictors of the dose, as opposed to the levels at those outdoor locations in which short periods of time spent.

Compliance with the proper use of an individual radiation dosimeter among children and the effects of improper use on the measured dose: a retrospective study 18-20 months following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

OBJECTIVES: To identify profiles of children who did not properly use individual radiation dosimeters following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident, and to assess how much error is generated by improper dosimeter use. PARTICIPANTS: The participants in this study comprised 1637 school children who participated in the external radiation exposure screening programme administrated by Minamisoma City (located 20-30 km from the Fukushima nuclear plant) between 18 and 20 months after the Fukushima incident. METHODS: We assessed the factors associated with improper use (non-use) of the dosimeters at specific time periods during the day (school commuting hours, at school, at home, outdoors and at bedtime) using logistic regression analyses. Ratios of the measured dose to regression estimates of the 'expected' dose (referred to as an error due to non-use) were also examined. RESULTS: Only 119 children (7.3%) used the dosimeters properly in all time periods. This low rate was attributed primarily to non-use when children were in the home and outdoors, rather than at school. School level, air dose rate at home, gender, membership in outdoor sports clubs and time spent outdoors on weekends, were significantly associated with improper use, after adjustment for covariates. Data from children who did not wear the dosimeters to school and outdoors had statistically significant (but clinically insignificant) errors (ratio: 1.13, p<0.01; and 0.97, p<0.05, respectively), whereas improper use of the dosimeters at school, at home and at bedtime did not generate significant errors. CONCLUSIONS: Well-targeted rigorous instructions on the use of the dosimeter are required, with particular focus on time periods other than school hours. However, given the small dose error due to the improper use of the dosimeters, even if the dosimeters are improperly used, solid evaluation of the radiation exposure may be possible with some accuracy.

Comparison between direct measurements and modeled estimates of external radiation exposure among school children 18 to 30 months after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan.

After a major radioactive incident, accurate dose reconstruction is important for evaluating health risks and appropriate radiation protection policies. After the 2011 Japan Fukushima nuclear incident, we assessed the level of agreement between the modeled and directly measured dose and estimated the uncertainties. The study population comprised 520 school children from Minamisoma city, located 20 km north of the nuclear plant. The annual dose 18­30 months after the incident was assessed using two approaches: estimation using the model proposed by the Japanese government and direct measurement by radiation dosemeters. The ratio of the average of modeled and measured doses was 3.0 (standard deviation (SD): 2.0). The reduction coefficient, an index for radiation attenuation properties, was 0.3 (SD: 0.1) on average, whereas the value used in the government model was 0.6. After adjusting for covariates, the coefficient had a significant negative correlation with the air dose rate in the dwelling location (p < 0.001), indicating that stronger building shielding effects are valuable in areas with higher air contamination levels. The present study demonstrated that some overestimation may have been related to uncertainties in radiation reduction effects, and that the air contamination level might provide a more important indicator of these effects.

The thyroid status of children and adolescents in Fukushima Prefecture examined during 20-30 months after the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster: a cross-sectional, observational study.

BACKGROUND: A possible increase in thyroid cancer in the young represents the most critical health problem to be considered after the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan (March 2011), which is an important lesson from the Chernobyl disaster (April 1986). Although it was reported that childhood thyroid cancer had started to increase 3-5 yr after the Chernobyl accident, we speculate that the actual period of latency might have been shorter than reported, considering the delay in initiating thyroid surveillance in the then Soviet Union and also the lower quality of ultrasonographic testing in the 1980s. Our primary objectives in the present study were to identify any possible thyroid abnormality in young Fukushima citizens at a relatively early timepoint (20-30 months) after the accident, and also to strive to find a possible relationship among thyroid ultrasonographic findings, thyroid-relevant biochemical markers, and iodine-131 ground deposition in the locations of residence where they stayed during very early days after the accident. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a cross-sectional study. We targeted the Fukushima residents who were 18 yr old or younger (including fetuses) at the time of the accident. Our examinations comprised a questionnaire, thyroid ultrasonography, thyroid-related blood tests, and urinary iodine measurement. We analyzed a possible relationship among thyroid ultrasonographic findings (1,137 subjects), serum hormonal data (731 subjects), urinary iodine concentrations (770 subjects), and iodine-131 ground deposition (1,137 subjects). We did not find any significant relationship among these indicators, and no participant was diagnosed to contract thyroid cancer. CONCLUSIONS: At the timepoint of 20-30 months after the accident, we did not confirm any discernible deleterious effects of the emitted radioactivity on the thyroid of young Fukushima residents. This is the first report in English detailing the thyroid status of young Fukushima residents after the nuclear disaster.

Limited internal radiation exposure associated with resettlements to a radiation-contaminated homeland after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

Resettlement to their radiation-contaminated hometown could be an option for people displaced at the time of a nuclear disaster; however, little information is available on the safety implications of these resettlement programs. Kawauchi village, located 12-30 km southwest of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, was one of the 11 municipalities where mandatory evacuation was ordered by the central government. This village was also the first municipality to organize the return of the villagers. To assess the validity of the Kawauchi villagers' resettlement program, the levels of internal Cesium (Cs) exposures were comparatively measured in returnees, commuters, and non-returnees among the Kawauchi villagers using a whole body counter. Of 149 individuals, 5 villagers had traceable levels of Cs exposure; the median detected level was 333 Bq/body (range, 309-1050 Bq/kg), and 5.3 Bq/kg (range, 5.1-18.2 Bq/kg). Median annual effective doses of villagers with traceable Cs were 1.1 x 10(-2) mSv/y (range, 1.0 x 10(-2)-4.1 x 10(-2) mSv/y). Although returnees had higher chances of consuming locally produced vegetables, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test showed that their level of internal radiation exposure was not significantly higher than that in the other 2 groups (p=0.643). The present findings in Kawauchi village imply that it is possible to maintain internal radiation exposure at very low levels even in a highly radiation-contaminated region at the time of a nuclear disaster. Moreover, the risks for internal radiation exposure could be limited with a strict food control intervention after resettlement to the radiation-contaminated village. It is crucial to establish an adequate number of radio-contaminated testing sites within the village, to provide immediate test result feedback to the villagers, and to provide education regarding the importance of re-testing in reducing the risk of high internal radiation exposure.