The grain storage of wet-deposited caesium and strontium by spring wheat - A modelling study based on a field experiment.

The aims of this study were to extend the Tracey model in order to quantify and to analyse spring wheat's grain storage dynamics of wet-deposited radionuclides. Tracey, a dynamic model of trace element cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, was extended with descriptions of wet-deposition, interception, foliar uptake and radioactive decay. Radionuclide fluxes were set proportional to corresponding water or carbon fluxes, simulated with CoupModel. The extended Tracey was calibrated against experimental data, where 134Cs and 85Sr were deposited on spring wheat at six growth stages in 2010 and 2011. Sensitivities of grain storage to wheat's and radionuclide properties were assessed, using the Eikos software, by 1000 Monte Carlo simulations for each of the 48 scenarios (combination of 2 radionuclides, 1 foliar uptake, 2 root uptake approaches, 6 deposition treatments and 2years). Simulations were accepted if simulated grain storage values were within 95% confidence intervals (CI) of measurements. We found that 15% of 134Cs and 85Sr simulations for 2011, and 6% of the 2010 simulations met the CI-criterion. Foliar uptake accounted for 99% and 90% of total plant uptake of 134Cs and 85Sr, respectively. Mean simulated grain storage at harvest increased with lateness of deposition, as the stored proportion of radionuclide deposited was 0.02% when deposition was before flowering, 2% between flowering and ripening, and 5% (2010) or 10% (2011, late harvest) after ripening, respectively. Similarly, the property that governed grain storage depended on the growth stage at time of deposition; stem and leaf fixation rates (deposition before flowering), grain fixation rates (between flowering and ripening) and grains' interception capacity (after ripening). We conclude that grains' interception capacities can be used to predict grain storage of radionuclides deposited in the riskiest period, i.e. close to harvest.

Interception and retention of wet-deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium on a ley mixture of grass and clover.

The aims of this study were to assess the potential radioactive contamination of fodder in the case of accidental radionuclide fallout, and to analyse the relationship between interception and retention of radionuclides as a function of biomass and Leaf Area Index (LAI). The interception and the retention of wet deposited (134)Cs and (85)Sr in ley (a mixture of grass and clover) were measured after artificial wet deposition in a field trial in Uppsala (eastern central Sweden). The field trial had a randomised block design with three replicates. (134)Cs and (85)Sr were deposited at six different growth stages during two growing seasons (2010 and 2011) using a rainfall simulator. The biomass was sampled in the center of each parcel 2 to 3h after deposition and at later growth stages (1 to 5) during the growing season. The above ground biomass and LAI were measured as well. The interception of radionuclides by the ley was largest at the late growth stages; the spike and tassel/flowering (code 5:6) in the 1(st) year, and at flowering/initial flowering (code 6:5) in the 2(nd) year. There was a correlation between radionuclide interception and above ground plant biomass, as well as with LAI, for both radionuclides in both years. The highest activity concentrations of both radionuclides were measured after deposition at the late growth stages and were found to be higher in the 2(nd) year. The weathering half-lives were shorter at the earlier growth stages than at the later growth stages for both radionuclides. For the magnitude of deposition chosen in our experiment, it can be concluded that the above ground biomass is a good predictor and the LAI a more uncertain predictor of the interception of radiocaesium and radiostrontium by ley grass and clover.

Accumulation of wet-deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium by spring oilseed rape (Brássica napus L.) and spring wheat (Tríticum aestívum L.).

The accumulation of (134)Cs and (85)Sr within different parts of spring oilseed rape and spring wheat plants was investigated, with a particular focus on transfer to seeds after artificial wet deposition at different growth stages during a two-year field trial. In general, the accumulation of radionuclides in plant parts increased when deposition was closer to harvest. The seed of spring oilseed rape had lower concentrations of (85)Sr than spring wheat grain. The plants accumulated more (134)Cs than (85)Sr. We conclude that radionuclides can be transferred into human food chain at all growing stages, especially at the later stages. The variation in transfer factors during the investigation, and in comparison to previous results, implies the estimation of the risk for possible transfer of radionuclides to seeds in the event of future fallout during a growing season is still subject to considerable uncertainty.

Summer rains and dry seasons in the upper Blue Nile Basin: the predictability of half a century of past and future spatiotemporal patterns.

During the last 100 years the Ethiopian upper Blue Nile Basin (BNB) has undergone major changes in land use, and is now potentially facing changes in climate. Rainfall over BNB supplies over two-thirds of the water to the Nile and supports a large local population living mainly on subsistence agriculture. Regional food security is sensitive to both the amount and timing of rain and is already an important political challenge that will be further complicated if scenarios of climate change are realized. In this study a simple spatial model of the timing and duration of summer rains (Kiremt) and dry season (Bega), and annual rain over the upper BNB was established from observed data between 1952 and 2004. The model was used to explore potential impacts of climate change on these rains, using a down-scaled ECHAM5/MP1-OM scenario between 2050 and 2100. Over the observed period the amount, onset and duration of Kiremt rains and rain-free Bega days have exhibited a consistent spatial pattern. The spatially averaged annual rainfall was 1490 mm of which 93% was Kiremt rain. The average Kiremt rain and number of rainy days was higher in the southwest (322 days) and decreased towards the north (136 days). Under the 2050-2100 scenario, the annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase by 6% and maintain the same spatial pattern as in the past. A larger change in annual rainfall is expected in the southwest (ca. +130 mm) with a gradually smaller change towards the north (ca. +70 mm). Results highlight the need to account for the characteristic spatiotemporal zonation when planning water management and climate adaptation within the upper BNB. The presented simple spatial resolved models of the presence of Kiremt and annual total rainfall could be used as a baseline for such long-term planning.

Stochastic modeling of diffuse pesticide losses from a small agricultural catchment.

The objective of this study was to identify the main sources of variation in pesticide losses at field and catchment scales using the dual permeability model MACRO. Stochastic simulations of the leaching of the herbicide MCPA (4-chloro-2-methylphenoxyacetic acid) were compared with seven years of measured concentrations in a stream draining a small agricultural catchment and one year of measured concentrations at the outlet of a field located within the catchment. MACRO was parameterized from measured probability distributions accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and local pedotransfer functions derived from information gathered in field- and catchment-scale soil surveys. At the field scale, a single deterministic simulation using the means of the input distributions was also performed. The deterministic run failed to reproduce the summer outflows when most leaching occurred, and greatly underestimated pesticide leaching. In contrast, the stochastic simulations successfully predicted the hydrologic response of the field and catchment and there was a good resemblance between the simulations and measured MCPA concentrations at the field outlet. At the catchment scale, the stochastic approach underestimated the concentrations of MCPA in the stream, probably mostly due to point sources, but perhaps also because the distributions used for the input variables did not accurately reflect conditions in the catchment. Sensitivity analyses showed that the most important factors affecting MACRO modeled diffuse MCPA losses from this catchment were soil properties controlling macropore flow, precipitation following application, and organic carbon content.