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BackgroundHaemodialysis patients are at-risk for severe COVID-19 and were among the first to receive a fourth COVID-19 vaccination. MethodsWe analysed humoral responses by multiplex-based IgG measurements against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and ACE2-binding inhibition towards variants of concern including Omicron in haemodialysis patients and controls after triple BNT162b2 vaccination and in dialysis patients after a fourth full-dose of mRNA-1273. T-cell responses were assessed by interferon {gamma} release assay. FindingsAfter triple BNT162b2 vaccination, anti-RBD B.1 IgG and ACE2 binding inhibition reached peak levels in dialysis patients, but remained inferior compared to controls. Whilst we detected B.1-specific ACE2 binding inhibition in 84% of dialysis patients after three BNT162b2 doses, binding inhibition towards the Omicron variant was only 38% and declining to 16% before the fourth vaccination. By using mRNA-1273 as fourth dose, humoral immunity against all SARS-CoV-2 variants tested was strongly augmented with 80% of dialysis patients having Omicron-specific ACE2 binding inhibition. Modest declines in T-cell responses in dialysis patients and controls after the second vaccination were restored by the third BNT162b2 dose and significantly increased by the fourth vaccination. ConclusionsA fourth full-dose mRNA-1273 after triple BNT162b2 vaccination in haemodialysis patients leads to efficient humoral responses against Omicron. Our data support current national recommendation and suggest that other immune-impaired individuals may benefit from this mixed mRNA vaccination regimen. FundingInitiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, State Ministry of Baden-Wurttemberg for Economic Affairs, Labour and Tourism, European Regional Development Fund Research in the contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSInformation on how to best maintain immune protection after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in at-risk individuals for severe COVID-19 such as haemodialysis patients is limited. We searched PubMed and medRxiv for keywords such as "haemodialysis", "SARS-CoV-2", "vaccine", "decay", "antibody kinetics", "cellular immunity", "longitudinal vaccination response", "immunisation scheme". To date, no peer-reviewed studies comprehensively assessed impact of both cellular and humoral immunogenicity after a triple BNT162b2 vaccination in combination with a fourth full-dose of mRNA-1273 and addressed the impact of currently dominating SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern on vaccine-induced immunity in this at-risk population. Added value of the studyWe provide to the best of our knowledge for the first time longitudinal vaccination response data over the course of the pandemic in dialysis patients. We studied not only systemic T- and B-cell but also mucosal responses in this at-risk group and determined levels of neutralizing antibodies towards Omicron BA.1 and Delta variants after a mixed mRNA vaccine schedule. Implications of all the available evidencePatients on haemodialysis show inferior response rates and thus a more rapid decline in humoral immune response after triple vaccination with BNT162b2. Our data strongly support the concept of administering a fourth full-dose of mRNA-1273 as part of a heterologous vaccination scheme to boost immunity and to prevent severe COVID-19 within this at-risk population. Strategic application of modified vaccine regimens may be an immediate response against SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased immune evasion potential.
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IntroductionCurrently, information on infection and transmission risks of students and teachers in schools, the effect of infection control measures for schools as well as the contribution of schools to the overall population transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany are limited to regional data sets restricted to short phases of the pandemic. MethodsWe used German federal state (NUTS-2) and county (NUTS-3) data from national and regional public health and education agencies to assess infection risk and secondary attack rates (SARs) from March 2020 to October 2021 in Germany. We used multiple regression analysis and infection dynamic modelling, accounting for urbanity, socioeconomic factors, local population infection dynamics and age-specific underdetection to investigate the effects of infection control measures. ResultsWe included (1) nation-wide NUTS-2 level data from calendar weeks (W) 46-50/2020 and W08-40/2021 with 304676 infections in students and 32992 in teachers; (2) NUTS-3 level data from W09-25/2021 with 85788 student and 9427 teacher infections and (3) detailed data from 5 regions covering W09/2020 to W27/2021 with 12814 infections, 43238 contacts and 4165 secondary cases for students (for teachers 14801, 5893 and 472 respectively). In counties with mandatory surgical mask wearing during class in all schools infection risk of students and teachers was reduced by 56/100.000 persons per 14 days and by 30% and 24% relative to the population respectively. Overall contribution to population infections of contacts in school settings was 2-13%. It was lowest during school closures and vacation and highest during normal presence class intervals. Infection risk for students increased with age and was similar to or lower than the population risk during second and third waves in Germany and higher in summer 2021. Infection risk of teachers was higher than the population during the second wave and similar or lower thereafter with stricter measures in place. SARs for students and staff were below 5% in schools throughout the study period. SARs in households more than doubled from 14% W21-39/2020 to 29-33% in W08-23/2021. Most contacts were reported for schools, yet most secondary cases originated in households. In schools, staff predominantly infected staff and students predominantly infected students. ConclusionOpen schools under hygiene measures and testing strategies contribute up to 13% of nation-wide infections in Germany and as little as 2% during vacations/school closures. Tighter infection control measures stabilised school SARs whilst household SARs more than doubled as more transmissible variants became prevalent in Germany. Mandatory mask wearing during class in all school types effectively reduces secondary transmission in schools, as do reduced attendance class models.
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The rapid emergence of the Omicron variant and its large number of mutations has led to its classification as a variant of concern (VOC) by the WHO(1). Initial studies on the neutralizing response towards this variant within convalescent and vaccinated individuals have identified substantial reductions(2-8). However many of these sample sets used in these studies were either small, uniform in nature, or were compared only to wild-type (WT) or, at most, a few other VOC. Here, we assessed IgG binding, (Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2) ACE2 binding inhibition, and antibody binding dynamics for the omicron variant compared to all other VOC and variants of interest (VOI)(9), in a large cohort of infected, vaccinated, and infected and then vaccinated individuals. While omicron was capable of binding to ACE2 efficiently, antibodies elicited by infection or immunization showed reduced IgG binding and ACE2 binding inhibition compared to WT and all VOC. Among vaccinated samples, antibody binding responses towards omicron were only improved following administration of a third dose. Overall, our results identify that omicron can still bind ACE2 while pre-existing antibodies can bind omicron. The extent of the mutations appear to inhibit the development of a neutralizing response, and as a result, omicron remains capable of evading immune control.
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SARS-CoV-2 variants accumulating immune escape mutations provide a significant risk to vaccine-induced protection. The novel variant of concern (VoC) Omicron (B.1.1.529) has the largest number of amino acid alterations in its Spike protein to date. Thus, it may efficiently escape recognition by neutralizing antibodies, allowing breakthrough infections in convalescent and vaccinated individuals. We analyzed neutralization activity of sera from individuals after vaccination with all mRNA-, vector- or heterologous immunization schemes currently available in Europe by in vitro neutralization assay at peak response towards SARS-CoV-2 B.1, Omicron, Beta and Delta pseudotypes and also provide longitudinal follow-up data from BNT162b2 vaccinees. All vaccines apart from Ad26.CoV2.S showed high levels of responder rates (93-100%) towards SARS-CoV-2 wild-type, but some reductions in neutralizing Beta and Delta VoC pseudotypes. The novel Omicron variant had the biggest impact, both in terms of response rates and neutralization titers. Only mRNA-1273 showed a 100% response rate to Omicron and induced the highest level of neutralizing antibody titers, followed by heterologous prime-boost approaches. Homologous BNT162b2 vaccination or vector-based AZD1222 or Ad26.CoV2.S performed less well with peak responder rates of 33%, 50% and 9%, respectively. However, Omicron responder rates in BNT162b2 recipients were maintained in our six month longitudinal follow-up indicating that individuals with cross-protection against Omicron maintain it over time. Overall, our data strongly argues for urgent booster doses in individuals who were previously vaccinated with BNT162b2, or a vector-based immunization scheme.
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IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. MethodsWe developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study. ResultsWe showed that taking underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers are the main contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. Overall, the contribution of contacts in schools to the total cases in the population was below 10% during the third wave. DiscussionAccounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting seems important to correctly identify those parts of the population where quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. In the future, we will aim to compare current model estimates with currently emerging during-pandemic age-specific contact survey data.
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BackgroundWhile SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations were successful in decreasing COVID-19 caseloads, recent increases in SARS-CoV-2 infections have led to questions about duration and quality of the subsequent immune response. While numerous studies have been published on immune responses triggered by vaccination, these often focused on the initial peak response generated in specific population subgroups (e.g. healthcare workers or immunocompromised individuals) and have often only examined the effects of one or two different immunisation schemes. Methods and FindingsWe analysed serum samples from participants of a large German seroprevalence study (MuSPAD) who had received all available vaccines and dose schedules (mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, AZD1222, Ad26.CoV2S.2 or a combination of AZD1222 plus either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2). Antibody titers against various SARS-CoV-2 antigens and ACE2 binding inhibition against SARS-CoV-2 wild-type and the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants of concern were analysed using a previously published multiplex immunoassay MULTICOV-AB and an ACE2-RBD competition assay. Among the different vaccines and their dosing regimens, homologous mRNA-based or heterologous prime-boost vaccination produced significantly higher antibody responses than vector-based homologous vaccination. Ad26.CoV2S.2 performance was significantly reduced, even compared to AZD1222, with 91.67% of samples being considered non-responsive forACE2 binding inhibition. mRNA-based vaccination induced a higher ratio of RBD- and S1-targeting antibodies than vector-based vaccination, which resulted in an increased proportion of S2-targeting antibodies. Previously infected individuals had a robust immune response once vaccinated, regardless of which vaccine they received. When examining antibody kinetics post-vaccination after homologous immunisation regimens, both titers and ACE2 binding inhibition peaked approximately 28 days post-vaccination and then decreased as time increased. ConclusionsAs one of the first and largest population-based studies to examine vaccine responses for all currently available immunisation schemes in Germany, we found that homologous mRNA or heterologous vaccination elicited the highest immune responses. The high percentage of non-responders for Ad26.CoV2.S requires further investigation and suggests that a booster dose with an mRNA-based vaccine may be necessary. The high responses seen in recovered and vaccinated individuals could aid future dose allocation, should shortages arise for certain manufacturers. Given the role of RBD- and S1-specific antibodies in neutralising SARS-CoV-2, their relative over-representation after mRNA vaccination may explain why mRNA vaccines have an increased efficacy compared to vector-based formulations. Further investigation on these differences will be of particular interest for vaccine development and efficacy, especially for the next-generation of vector-based vaccines.
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Patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis were among the first to receive SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations due to their increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease and high case fatality rates. To date, there have been minimal longitudinal studies in hemodialysis patients to ascertain whether protection offered by vaccination is long-lasting. To assess how surrogates for protection changed over time, we examined both the humoral and cellular response in a previously reported cohort of at-risk hemodialysis patients and healthy donors, four months after their second dose of Pfizer BNT162b2. Compared to three weeks post-second vaccination, both cellular and humoral responses against the original SARS-CoV-2 isolate as well as variants of concern were significantly reduced, with some dialyzed individuals having no B- or T-cell response. Our data strongly support the need for a third booster in hemodialysis patients and potentially other at-risk individuals.
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BackgroundPatients with chronic renal insufficiency on intermittent hemodialysis face an increased risk of COVID-19 induced mortality and impaired vaccine responses. To date, only few studies addressed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine elicited immunity in this immunocompromised population. MethodsWe assessed immunogenicity of the mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 in at risk dialysis patients and characterized systemic cellular and humoral immune responses in serum and saliva using interferon {gamma} release assay and multiplex-based cytokine and immunoglobulin measurements. We further compared binding capacity and neutralization efficacy of vaccination-induced immunoglobulins against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.429 and Cluster 5 by ACE2-RBD competition assay. FindingsPatients on intermittent hemodialysis exhibit detectable but variable cellular and humoral immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern after a two-dose regimen of BNT162b2. Although vaccination-induced immunoglobulins were detectable in saliva and plasma, both anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralization efficacy was reduced compared to controls. Similarly, T-cell mediated interferon {gamma} release after stimulation with SARS-CoV-2 spike peptides was significantly diminished. InterpretationQuantifiable humoral and cellular immune responses after BNT162b2 vaccination in individuals on intermittent dialysis are encouraging, but urge for longitudinal follow-up to assess longevity of immunity. Diminished virus neutralization and interferon {gamma} responses in face of emerging variants of concern may favor this at risk population for re-vaccination using modified vaccines at the earliest opportunity. FundingInitiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers, EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, State Ministry of Baden-Wurttemberg for Economic Affairs, Labor and Tourism. Research in the contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSPatients on dialysis tend to have a reduced immune response to both infection and vaccination. We searched PubMed and MedRxiv for studies including search terms such as "COVID-19", "vaccine", and "dialysis" but no peer-reviewed studies to date assessed both SARS-CoV-2 specific B- and T-cell responses, mucosal immunoglobulins, and considered the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in this at risk population. Added value of the studyWe provide a comprehensive functional characterization of both T- and B-cell responses following a two-dose regimen of BNT162b2 in at risk patients on maintenance hemodialysis. More importantly, to the best of our knowledge, we assess for the first time binding and neutralization capacity of vaccination-induced circulation and mucosal antibodies towards emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in an immunocompromised population. Implications of all the available evidencePatients on maintenance hemodialysis develop a substantial cellular and humoral immune response following the BNT162b2 vaccine. These findings should encourage patients on intermittent hemodialysis to receive the vaccine. However, we suggest continuing additional protection measures against variants of concern in this at risk population until longevity of the vaccine response is fully evaluated.
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Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is an essential indicator to guide measures. Few population-based estimates are available in Germany. We determine seroprevalence allowing comparison between regions, time points, socio-demographic and health-related factors. MuSPAD is a sequential multi-local seroprevalence study. We randomly recruited adults in five counties with differing cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence July 2020 -February 2021. Serostatus was determined using Spike S1-specific IgG ELISA. We determined county-wise proportions of seropositivity. We assessed underestimation of infections, county and age specific infection fatality risks, and association of seropositivity with demographic, socioeconomic and health factors. We found seroprevalence of 2.4 % (95%CI: 1.8-3.1%) for Reutlingen in June 2020 (stage 1) which increased to 2.9% (95%CI: 2.1-3.8%) in October (stage 2), Freiburg stage 1 1.5% (95% CI: 1.1-2.1%) vs. 2.5% (95%CI: 1.8-3.4%), Aachen stage 1 2.3% (95% CI: 1.7-3.1%) vs. 5.4% (95%CI: 4.4-6.6%), Osnabruck 1.3% (95% CI: 1.0-1.9%) and Magdeburg in Nov/Dec 2020. 2.4% (95%CI 1.9-3.1%). Number needed to quarantine to prevent one infection was 8.2. The surveillance detection ratio (SDR) between number of infections based on our results and number reported to health authorities ranged from 2.5-4.5. Participants aged 80+ had lower SDR. Infection fatality estimates ranged from 0.2-2.4%. Lower education was associated with higher, smoking with lower seropositivity. Seroprevalence remained low until December 2020 with high underdetection. The second wave from November 2020 to February 2021 resulted in additional 2-5% of the population being infected. Detected age specific differences of SDR should be taken into account in modelling and forecasting COVID-19 morbidity. FundingThe Helmholtz Association, European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [grant number 101003480] and intramural funds of the Helmholtz Centre for infection (HZI). HighlightsO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSSeroepidemiological surveys on SARS-CoV-2 are a useful tool to track the transmission during the epidemic. We searched PubMed/the pre-print server medRxiv and included web-based reports from German health organizations using the keywords "seroprevalence", "SARS-CoV-2", "Germany" and similar other English and German terms in the period from January 1st, 2020 until March 2021. We identified 30 published studies in Germany which mostly report low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (<5%). Most of these surveys were so-called hotspot studies which assessed seroprevalence after localized outbreaks or examined seroprevalence of specific population groups such as e.g. medical staff. Few studies are either population-based or blood donor-based, but do not allow comparisons between regions. To date, we only consider the Corona sub-study of the Rhineland study similar to MuSPAD. It reports a low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (46/4755; 0.97%; 95% CI: 0.72-1.30). Based on this, almost the entire German population remained susceptible to a SARS-CoV-2 infection by the end of 2020. Added value of this studyWe provide the first comprehensive, high-precision multi-region population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study with representative sampling following the WHO protocol in Germany. By measuring SARS-CoV-2 IgG, we explore immunity at regional and national level over time. We also assess risk factors and sample each region twice, which permits to monitor seroprevalence progression throughout the epidemic in different exemplary German regions. Implications of all the available evidenceOur results show low seroprevalence (<3%) until Mid-December 2020 in all regions. While estimates in Reutlingen, Aachen, Freiburg and Osnabruck reflect low seroprevalence mostly after the first wave, the survey in Magdeburg cumulatively already represents the beginning of the second wave. The number needed to quarantine to prevent one infection was 8.2 in our study. We also show that for the first wave reported infections reflected overall around 25% of those actually infected rising to 40-50% in the second wave. A slightly raised infection risk could be shown for persons with lower education.
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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic virus is consistently evolving with mutations within the receptor binding domain (RBD)1 being of particular concern2-4. To date, there is little research into protection offered following vaccination or infection against RBD mutants in emerging variants of concern (UK3, South African5, Mink6 and Southern California7). To investigate this, serum and saliva samples were obtained from groups of vaccinated (Pfizer BNT-162b28), infected and uninfected individuals. Antibody responses among groups, including salivary antibody response and antibody binding to RBD mutant strains were examined. The neutralization capacity of the antibody response against a patient-isolated South African variant was tested by viral neutralization tests and further verified by an ACE2 competition assay. We found that humoral responses in vaccinated individuals showed a robust response after the second dose. Interestingly, IgG antibodies were detected in large titers in the saliva of vaccinated subjects. Antibody responses showed considerable differences in binding to RBD mutants in emerging variants of concern. A substantial reduction in RBD binding and neutralization was detected for the South African variant. Taken together our data reinforces the importance of administering the second dose of Pfizer BNT-162b2 to acquire high levels of neutralizing antibodies. High antibody titers in saliva suggest that vaccinated individuals may have reduced transmission potential. Substantially reduced neutralization for the South African variant highlights importance of surveillance strategies to detect new variants and targeting these in future vaccines.
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BO_SCPLOWACKGROUNDC_SCPLOWSeroreactivity against human endemic coronaviruses has been linked to disease severity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Assays that are capable of concomitantly detecting antibodies against endemic coronaviridae such as OC43, 229E, NL63, and SARS-CoV-2 may help to elucidate this question. We set up a platform for serum-screening and developed a bead-based Western blot system, namely DigiWest, capable of running hundreds of assays using microgram amounts of protein prepared directly from different viruses. MO_SCPLOWETHODSC_SCPLOWThe parallelized and miniaturised DigiWest assay was adapted for detecting antibodies using whole protein extract prepared from isolated SARS-CoV-2 virus particles. After characterisation and optimization of the newly established test, whole virus lysates of OC43, 229E, and NL63 were integrated into the system. RO_SCPLOWESULTSC_SCPLOWThe DigiWest-based immunoassay system for detection of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies shows a sensitivity of 87.2 % and diagnostic specificity of 100 %. Concordance analysis with the SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays available by Roche, Siemens, and Euroimmun indicates a comparable assay performance (Cohens Kappa ranging from 0.8799-0.9429). In the multiplexed assay, antibodies against the endemic coronaviruses OC43, 229E, and NL63 were detected, displaying a high incidence of seroreactivity against these coronaviruses. CO_SCPLOWONCLUSIONC_SCPLOWThe DigiWest-based immunoassay, which uses authentic antigens from isolated virus particles, is capable of detecting individual serum responses against SARS-CoV-2 with high specificity and sensitivity in one multiplexed assay. It shows high concordance with other commercially available serologic assays. The DigiWest approach enables a concomitant detection of antibodies against different endemic coronaviruses and will help to elucidate the role of these possibly cross-reactive antibodies.
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BackgroundComprehensive evidence synthesis on the associations between comorbidities and behavioural factors with hospitalisation, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and death due to COVID-19 is lacking leading to inconsistent national and international recommendations on who should be targeted for non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination strategies. MethodsWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on studies and publicly available data to quantify the association between predisposing health conditions, demographics, and behavioural factors with hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death from COVID-19. We provided ranges of reported and calculated effect estimates and pooled relative risks derived from a meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results75 studies were included into qualitative and 74 into quantitative synthesis, with study populations ranging from 19 - 44,672 COVID-19 cases. The risk of dying from COVID-19 was significantly associated with cerebrovascular [pooled RR 2.7 (95% CI 1.7-4.1)] and cardiovascular [RR 3.2 (CI 2.3-4.5)] diseases, hypertension [RR 2.6 (CI 2.0-3.4)], and renal disease [RR 2.5 (CI 1.8-3.4)]. Health care workers had lower risk for death and severe outcomes of disease (RR 0.1 (CI 0.1-0.3). Our meta-regression showed a decrease of the effect of some comorbidities on severity of disease with higher median age of study populations. Associations between comorbidities and hospitalisation and ICU admission were less strong than for death. ConclusionsWe obtained robust estimates on the magnitude of risk for COVID-19 hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death associated with comorbidities, demographic, and behavioural risk factors. We identified and confirmed population groups that are vulnerable and that require targeted prevention approaches. SummaryComorbidities such as cardiovascular disease or hypertension are less strongly associated with hospitalization and ICU admission than with death in COVID-19 patients. Increasing age is associated with a lower effect on comorbidities on disease severity.
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Given the importance of the humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 as a global benchmark for immunity, a detailed analysis is needed to monitor seroconversion in the general population, understand manifestation and progression of COVID-19 disease, and ultimately predict the outcome of vaccine development. In contrast to currently available serological assays, which are only able to resolve the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response on an individual antigen level, we developed a multiplex immunoassay, for which we included spike and nucleocapsid proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and the endemic human coronaviruses (NL63, OC43, 229E, HKU1) in an expanded antigen panel. Compared to three commercial in vitro diagnostic tests, our MULTICOV-AB assay achieved the highest sensitivity and specificity when analyzing a well-characterized sample set of SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected individuals. Simultaneously, high IgG responses against endemic coronaviruses became apparent throughout all samples, but no consistent cross-reactive IgG response patterns could be defined. In summary, we have established and validated, a robust, high-content-enabled, and antigen-saving multiplex assay MULTICOV-AB, which is highly suited to monitor vaccination studies and will facilitate epidemiologic screenings for the humoral immunity toward pandemic as well as endemic coronaviruses.
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European countries report large differences in COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR) and high variation over the year. CFR estimates may both depend on the method used for estimation and of country-specific characteristics. While crude methods simply use cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths, the CFR can be influenced by the demographic characteristics of the cases, case detection rates, time lags between reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructural characteristics, such as healthcare capacities. We used publicly available weekly data from the national health authorities of Germany, Italy, France and Spain on case and death numbers by age group connected to COVID-19 for the year 2020. We propose to use smoothed data of national weekly test rates for case adjustment and investigated the impact of different time lags from case reporting to death on the estimation of the CFR. Finally, we described the association between case fatality and the demand for hospital beds for COVID-19, taking into account national hospital bed capacities. Crude CFR estimates differ considerably between the four study countries with end-of-year values of approximately 1.9%, 3.5%, 2.5% and 2.7% for Germany, Italy, France and Spain, respectively. Age-adjustment reduces the differences considerably, resulting in values of 1.61%, 2.4% and 2% for Germany, Italy and Spain, respectively. Frances age-specific data was restricted to hospitalised cases only and is therefore not comparable in that regard. International crude International CFR time series show smaller differences when adjusting for demographics of the cases or the test rates. Curves adjusted for age structure, testing or time lags show smaller variance over the year and a smaller degree of non-stationarity. The data does not suggest any connection of CFRs to hospital capacities for the four countries under study.
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BackgroundReporting delays in disease surveillance impair the ability to assess the current dynamic of an epidemic. In continuously updated epidemic curves, case numbers for the most recent epidemic week or day usually appear to be lower than the previous, suggesting a decline of the epidemic. In reality, the epidemic curve may still be on the rise, because reporting delay prevents the most recent cases to appear in the case count. In context of the COVID-19 epidemic and for countries planning large international gatherings, such as the Summer Olympic Games in Japan 2020, the ability to assess the actual stage of an epidemic is of outmost importance. MethodsWe applied now-casting onto COVID-19 data provided by the nCoV-2019 Data Working Group to evaluate the true count of cases, by taking into account reporting delays occurring between date of symptom onset and date of confirmation. FindingsWe calculated a decrease of reporting delay, from a median delay of ten days in calendar week four 2020 to six days in calendar week eight, resulting in an overall mean of 4.3 days. The confidence intervals of the now-casting indicated an increase of cases in the last reporting days, while case country in that same time period suggested a decline. InterpretationAs a specific use case this tool may be of particular value for the challenging risk assessment and risk communication in the context of the Summer Olympic Games in Japan 2020 and similar situations elsewhere.
