Predicting drought stress under climate change in the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam.

In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the region's socio-economic development. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated in recent years by increasing drought severity. Recognizing the escalating severity of droughts, the study offers a novel contribution by conducting a comprehensive analysis of surface water resource distribution in Lam Dong province, focusing on assessing water demand for agricultural production, a crucial factor in ensuring sustainable crop growth. Two scenarios, Current-2020 (SC1) and Climate Change-2025 (SC2), are simulated, with SC2 based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). These scenarios are integrated into the MIKE-NAM and MIKE-HYDRO basin models, allowing for a thorough assessment of the water balance of Lam Dong province. Furthermore, the study utilizes the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) to measure drought severity, revealing prevalent dry and moderately droughty conditions in highland districts with rainfall frequency ranging from 50 to 85%. Severe drought conditions occur with a rainfall frequency of 95%, indicating an increased frequency and geographic scope of severe droughts. Additionally, the study highlights that under abnormally dry conditions, water demand for the winter-spring crop is consistently met at 100%, decreasing to 85%, 80%, and less than 75% for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, respectively. These findings offer insights into future drought conditions in the Lam Dong province and their potential impact on irrigation capacity, crucial for adaptation strategies.

Assessing coastal vulnerability at the village level using a robust framework, the example of Canacona in South Goa, India.

Climate change poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide. This study presents and applies a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) to assess coastal vulnerability at the village level, focusing on Canacona, a taluka in South Goa, India. It adapts the existing CVI methodology by incorporating additional variables to better represent the various dimensions of vulnerability, resulting in 21 variables split into a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) and a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The results show spatial variability in coastal vulnerability across the studied villages, with Agonda and Nagercem-Chaudi found to be highly vulnerable and Loliem to be the least vulnerable. A hydrological modeling approach is also used to compare the CVI of every village with their susceptibility to inundation due to rising sea levels. The results demonstrate the influence of local factors on vulnerability, challenging previous taluka-level assessments given the scale upon which adaptation typically takes place.

Zoning the suitability of the western Mekong Delta for paddy rice cultivation and aquaculture under current and future environmental conditions.

Ca Mau and Kien Giang, the two provinces of the Mekong Delta bordering the Gulf of Thailand, are facing major environmental challenges affecting the agriculture and aquaculture sectors upon which many livelihoods in this region depend on. This study maps the suitability of these two provinces for paddy rice cultivation and shrimp farming according to soil characteristics and current and future environmental conditions for variables found to significantly influence the yield of those two sectors, i.e., the level of saltwater intrusion, water availability for rainfed agriculture, and the length of the growing period. Future environmental conditions were simulated using the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model forced by four hydrodynamic scenarios, each one representing different extents of saltwater intrusion during both the dry and rainy seasons, while also considering the availability of water resources for rainfed agriculture. The suitability zoning was performed using a GIS-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, resulting in the categorisation of the land according to four suitability levels for each sector. The analysis reveals that paddy rice cultivation will become more suitable to Kien Giang province while shrimp farming will be more suitable to Ca Mau province if the simulated future environmental conditions materialise. A suitability analysis is essential for optimal utilisation of the land. The approach presented in this study will inform the regional economic development master plan and provide guidance to other delta regions experiencing severe environmental changes and wishing to consider potential future climatic and sea level changes, and their associated impacts, in their land use planning.

Region of freshwater influence (ROFI) and its impact on sediment transport in the lower Mekong Delta coastal zone of Vietnam.

The delta of the Mekong River is one of the largest in the world, with the Mekong River carrying a large amount of sediments in its Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI). This study investigates the flow structure and movement of both suspended and bedload sediments in the ROFI of the Lower Mekong Delta (LMD) in order to identify areas prone to sediment accretion and erosion. This is accomplished by applying the three-dimensional Coastal and Regional Ocean COmmunity (CROCO) model and then calculating the sediment budget of different stretches of the coastline. The model outputs, depicting areas experiencing sediment accretion and erosion along the coastline of the LMD, are then compared against observations obtained during the period 1990-2015 and demonstrate the ability of the model to identify areas particularly prone to erosion and where preventive actions against coastal erosion should focus.

Can nature-based solutions contribute to water security in Bhopal?

Bhojtal, a large man-made lake bordering the city of Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh state, central India), is important for the city's water supply, connoted the lifeline of the city. Despite the dry though not arid and markedly seasonal climate, soil impermeability hampers infiltration into the complex geology underlying the Bhojtal catchment. Rural communities in the catchment are nonetheless high dependent on underlying aquifers. This paper develops baseline understanding of trends in the ecology, water quality and uses of Bhojtal, discussing their implications for the long-term wellbeing of the Bhopal city region. It highlights increasing dependency on water diverted from out-of-catchment sources, and also abstraction across the Bhojtal catchment in excess of replenishment that is depressing groundwater and contributing to reported declining lake level and water quality. Despite some nature-based management initiatives, evidence suggests little progress in haltering on-going groundwater depression and declines in lake water level and quality. Significant declines in ecosystem services produced by Bhojtal are likely without intervention, a major concern given the high dependency of people in the Bhopal region on Bhojtal for their water supply and socio-economic and cultural wellbeing. Over-reliance on appropriation of water from increasingly remote sources is currently compensating for lack of attention to measures protecting or regenerating local resources that may provide greater resilience and regional self-sufficiency. Improved knowledge of catchment hydrogeology on a highly localised scale could improve the targeting and efficiency of water harvesting and other management interventions in the Bhojtal catchment, and their appropriate hybridisation with engineered solutions, protecting the catchment from unintended impacts of water extraction or increasing its carrying capacity, and also providing resilience to rising population and climate change. Ecosystem service assessment provides useful insights into the breadth of benefits of improved management of Bhojtal and its catchment.

Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. METHODS: A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. RESULTS: It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region.

The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America.

A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.