Tempo-Spatial Modelling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Urban Spaces.

The relationship between the social structure of urban spaces and the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is becoming increasingly evident. Analyzing the socio-spatial structure in relation to cases may be one of the keys to explaining the ways in which this contagious disease and its variants spread. The aim of this study is to propose a set of variables selected from the social context and the spatial structure and to evaluate the temporal spread of infections and their different degrees of intensity according to social areas. We define a model to represent the relationship between the socio-spatial structure of the urban space and the spatial distribution of pandemic cases. We draw on the theory of social area analysis and apply multivariate analysis techniques to check the results in the urban space of the city of Malaga (Spain). The proposed model should be considered capable of explaining the functioning of the relationships between societal structure, socio-spatial segregation, and the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, the study of the origins and consequences of COVID-19 from different scientific perspectives is considered a necessary approach to understanding this phenomenon. The personal and social consequences of the pandemic have been exceptional and have changed many aspects of social life in urban spaces, where it has also had a greater impact. We propose a geostatistical analysis model that can explain the functioning of the relationships between societal structure, socio-spatial segregation, and the temporal evolution of the pandemic. Rather than an aprioristic theory, this paper is a study by the authors to interpret the disparity in the spread of the pandemic as shown by the infection data.

Evidence of the Relationship between Social Vulnerability and the Spread of COVID-19 in Urban Spaces.

Modeling the social-spatial structure of urban spaces can facilitate the development of guidelines aimed at curbing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic while also acting as an instrument that helps decision-making concerning mitigation policies. The modeling process starts with categorization of urban spaces based on the concept of social vulnerability. A model is created based on this concept and the theory of analysis of social areas. Statistical techniques of factor analysis and geostatistics are applied. This generates a map of social differentiation that, when related to data on the evolution of the contagion, generates a multidimensional model of social vulnerability. The application of this model towards people (social structure) and the environment where they live (spatial structure) is specified. Our model assumes the uniqueness of cities, and it is intended to be a broadly applicable model that can be extrapolated to other urban areas if pertinent revisions are made. Our work demonstrates that aspects of the social and urban structures may be validly used to analyze and explain the spatial spread of COVID-19.