Routine surveillance data on AIDS and HIV infections in the UK: a description of the data available and their use for short-term planning.

In the UK surveillance of AIDS and HIV infection is based on routine reporting systems. Whilst attempts are made to ensure that AIDS data are as complete as possible, numbers of reports fluctuate from month to month for reasons which are described. In 1986 there was an increase in death certificates naming AIDS as a cause of death in patients who were not identifiable in the surveillance data. More active surveillance is now undertaken in order to minimize this and other possible discrepancies. It is probable that most cases of AIDS are reported and therefore these data can be used to describe trends in the epidemic by 'risk group'. Laboratory reports of HIV antibody-positive tests could give an earlier indication of trends because of the long incubation period of AIDS. But these laboratory data are difficult to interpret because they represent an incomplete and biased sample of all positive persons. AIDS cases are still being reported at a rate which is increasing approximately exponentially. Short-term predictions are presented showing a growth in the epidemic which is consistent with previously published predictions. Most cases are in the homosexual risk group. New asymptomatic homosexual patients with HIV antibody are still being identified. The epidemic of AIDS in haemophilia patients should be of finite size although new cases of AIDS are likely to continue to be diagnosed for several years. AIDS due to blood transfusion given in the UK before donor screening appears to be a much smaller epidemic. The epidemic in drug abusers is increasing. Heterosexually acquired AIDS and HIV infections are being reported in small but increasing numbers.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the UK and Ireland. A questionnaire survey.

The results of a questionnaire survey of the distribution of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in the UK and Ireland between 1982 and 1983 are reported. Information was obtained about the geographical distribution of MRSA, the units affected, the sites of isolation and the preventive measures employed. Serious clinical problems were confined to a small number of hospitals with high isolation rates of MRSA.

Mumps surveillance in England and Wales 1962-81.

A study of routine data on mumps in England and Wales suggests that its epidemiological features are changing from those of an epidemic disease in young adults and older children to a more endemic disease in younger children. Infection now occurs at an earlier age, at which complications are less frequent and symptomless infection may be more common. The incidence of clinical disease may be falling. The high proportion of registered deaths in the middle aged and elderly may be an artifact due to misclassification of causes of death and to misdiagnosis. These changes lessen the need for routine immunisation. Indeed with low acceptance rates of measles vaccination of 50% at age 15 months, mumps/measles routine vaccination at the same age is contraindicated because similarly low acceptance rates might lead to an increase in the number of cases of mumps in older children and young adults, at which ages complications are more frequent.

Communicable disease associated with milk and dairy products in England and Wales 1951-80.

In England and Wales between 1951 and 1980 233 reported outbreaks of communicable disease attributed to milk or dairy products affected nearly 10 000 people, of whom four died. Tuberculosis and brucellosis have been controlled, but milk-borne outbreaks of salmonellosis and campylobacter enteritis due to raw or defectively pasteurised milk are common and may be increasing in number. Universal heat treatment of milk is an effective preventive measure, and it is regrettable that the continued sale of untreated milk is to be permitted in England and Wales.

A national public health service.

The development of the British public health services is briefly reviewed and it is suggested that two types of epidemiologist (Community Physician) are necessary in each locality: one concerned with medical administration and health care planning-the medical administrator, and the other with the prevention of disease-the clinical epidemiologist. A new nation public health service is proposed to revive disease prevention with four main features: (1) A district Clinical Epidemiologist who is a member of the district department of community medicine with responsibility for prevention but with no district administrative duties. (2) A District Epidemiology Unit comprising other appropriate staff. (3) National specialist epidemiology units within the NHS with service roles to support and coordinate the District Clinical Epidemiologists. (4) A national authority within the NHS with responsibility for prevention and for administering the national specialist units.