Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply.

The worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. Nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3.4% of the Ethiopian population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different geographical settings (urban, rural, or remote). We found that, during the first year of the pandemic, the mean proportion of critical cases occurred in SWSZ attributable to infectors under 30 years of age would range between 24.9 and 48.0%, depending on the geographical setting. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase on average to 66.7-70.6%. Our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively of the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 50 years would have averted 40 (95%PI: 18-60), 90 (95%PI: 61-111), and 62 (95%PI: 21-108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 30 years would have averted an average of 86-152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. Despite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.

A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden.

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2-43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥ 37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3-25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4-2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4-30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3-10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1-0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9-19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1-2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9-30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3-21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6-19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.

Sham treatment effects in manual therapy trials on back pain patients: a systematic review and pairwise meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects and reliability of sham procedures in manual therapy (MT) trials in the treatment of back pain (BP) in order to provide methodological guidance for clinical trial development. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Different databases were screened up to 20 August 2020. Randomised controlled trials involving adults affected by BP (cervical and lumbar), acute or chronic, were included.Hand contact sham treatment (ST) was compared with different MT (physiotherapy, chiropractic, osteopathy, massage, kinesiology and reflexology) and to no treatment. Primary outcomes were BP improvement, success of blinding and adverse effect (AE). Secondary outcomes were number of drop-outs. Dichotomous outcomes were analysed using risk ratio (RR), continuous using mean difference (MD), 95% CIs. The minimal clinically important difference was 30 mm changes in pain score. RESULTS: 24 trials were included involving 2019 participants. Very low evidence quality suggests clinically insignificant pain improvement in favour of MT compared with ST (MD 3.86, 95% CI 3.29 to 4.43) and no differences between ST and no treatment (MD -5.84, 95% CI -20.46 to 8.78).ST reliability shows a high percentage of correct detection by participants (ranged from 46.7% to 83.5%), spinal manipulation being the most recognised technique.Low quality of evidence suggests that AE and drop-out rates were similar between ST and MT (RR AE=0.84, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.28, RR drop-outs=0.98, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.25). A similar drop-out rate was reported for no treatment (RR=0.82, 95% 0.43 to 1.55). CONCLUSIONS: MT does not seem to have clinically relevant effect compared with ST. Similar effects were found with no treatment. The heterogeneousness of sham MT studies and the very low quality of evidence render uncertain these review findings.Future trials should develop reliable kinds of ST, similar to active treatment, to ensure participant blinding and to guarantee a proper sample size for the reliable detection of clinically meaningful treatment effects. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020198301.

Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 spread may have a dramatic impact in countries with vulnerable economies and limited availability of, and access to, healthcare resources and infrastructures. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, a low prevalence and mortality have been observed so far. METHODS: We collected data on individuals' social contacts in the South West Shewa Zone (SWSZ) of Ethiopia across geographical contexts characterized by heterogeneous population density, work and travel opportunities, and access to primary care. We assessed how socio-demographic factors and observed mixing patterns can influence the COVID-19 disease burden, by simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in remote settlements, rural villages, and urban neighborhoods, under school closure mandate. RESULTS: From national surveillance data, we estimated a net reproduction number of 1.62 (95% CI 1.55-1.70). We found that, at the end of an epidemic mitigated by school closure alone, 10-15% of the population residing in the SWSZ would have been symptomatic and 0.3-0.4% of the population would require mechanical ventilation and/or possibly result in a fatal outcome. Higher infection attack rates are expected in more urbanized areas, but the highest incidence of critical disease is expected in remote subsistence farming settlements. School closure contributed to reduce the reproduction number by 49% and the attack rate of infections by 28-34%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the relatively low burden of COVID-19 in Ethiopia observed so far may depend on social mixing patterns, underlying demography, and the enacted school closures. Our findings highlight that socio-demographic factors can also determine marked heterogeneities across different geographical contexts within the same region, and they contribute to understand why sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a relatively lower attack rate of severe cases compared to high-income countries.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Tong Len Meditation Practice in Cancer Patients: Evaluation of a Distant Psychological Healing Effect.

CONTEXT: Tong Len meditation is an important therapeutic tool in the Tibetan medicine, and it can be used for self-healing and/or to heal others. Currently, in the West, there is no scientific study concerning the efficacy of a Tong Len distant healing effect on psychological disorders in cancer patients. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a distant healing effect of Tong Len meditation on stress, anxiety, depression, fatigue, and self-perceived quality of life in cancer patients. These psychological objectives were chosen as a consequence of the limited scientific literature of present day. DESIGN: We performed a double-blind randomized controlled trial on 103 cancer patients with tumors. Overall, 12 meditators used Tong Len in aid of 52 patients randomly selected as experimental group, while the remaining 51 patients constituted the control group. Patients and meditators did not know each other. All patients completed profile of mood states (POMS) and European Quality of Life-5 dimensions (EQ-5D) questionnaires before treatment (T0), after two (T1) and three months of treatment (T2), and one month after treatment cessation (T3). RESULTS: With regard to the parameters related to depression, a statistically significant improvement (P = .003) was observed in the treatment group compared to controls. On the other hand, the vigor/activity parameter saw significant improvements in the control group (P = .009). Both groups exhibited significant improvements in the other factors assessed in the POMS and EQ-5D questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not provide sufficient evidence supporting an efficacy of Tong Len meditation in distant psychological healing as compared to a control condition. The research highlighted some psychological improvements through Tong Len distant meditation in a group of patients unknown to meditators. Therefore, the enhancement detected in most parameters in both treatment and control groups raises interest on in-depth analysis and evaluation of distant meditation on cancer patients to mitigate psychological problems caused by the disease.