Selecting DCD Recipients Using Predictive Indices.

Donation after circulatory death (DCD) allografts might represent one of the largest untapped sources of liver allografts. Our aim was to identify independent recipient risk factors that predict mortality in DCD allograft recipients to preselect optimal candidates for successful transplantation. Furthermore, we compared the application of our newly constructed DCD Recipient Selector Index (RSI) score to previously developed models to determine superiority in predicting recipient survival. Methods: Using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database, we performed univariate and multivariate retrospective analyses on 4228 DCD liver allograft recipients. Results: We identified 8 significant factors and incorporated them into the weighted RSI to predict 3-mo survival following DCD liver transplantation with a C-statistic of 0.6971. The most significant recipient risk factors were recipient serum sodium levels >150 mEq/L at transplant, recipient albumin <2.0 g/dL at transplant, and a history of portal vein thrombosis. Because Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score components were included as individual predictors, the DCD RSI predicts survival independently of MELD. Upon comparison with 3 previous recipient risk scores-Balance of Risk, Renal Risk Index, Patient-Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation-the DCD RSI was determined to be superior at selecting optimal candidates pre-DCD transplantation, yielding a C-statistic of 0.6971. Conclusions: After verifying the performance of predictive indices for selection of DCD recipients, the DCD RSI is best used to preselect patients for optimized outcomes after DCD transplantation. This can increase utilization of DCD donors by improving outcomes.

A learning curve in using orphan liver allografts for transplantation.

Given the critical shortage of donor livers, marginal liver allografts have potential to increase donor supply. We investigate trends and long-term outcomes of liver transplant using national share allografts transplanted after rejection at the local and regional levels. We studied a cohort of 75 050 candidates listed in the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network for liver transplantation between 2002 and 2016. We compared patients receiving national share and regional/local share allografts from 2002-2006, 2007-2011, and 2012-2016, performing multivariate Cox regression for graft survival. Recipient and center-level covariates that were not significant (P < .05) were removed. Graft survival of national share allografts improved over time. National share allografts had a 26% increased risk for graft failure in 2002-2006 but no impact on graft survival in 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. The cold ischemia time (CIT) of national share allografts decreased from 10.4 to 8.0 hours. We demonstrate that CIT had significant impact on graft survival using national share allografts (CIT <6 hours: hazard ratio 0.75 and CIT >12 hours: hazard ratio 1.25). Despite a trend toward sicker recipients and poorer quality allografts, graft survival outcomes using national share allografts have improved to benchmark levels. Reduction in cold ischemia time is a possible explanation.