RESUMO
Background: Given that limited reports have described the survival and risk factors for elderly patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage (HICH), we aimed to develop a valid but simple prediction nomogram for the survival of HICH patients. Methods: All elderly patients ≥65 years old who were diagnosed with HICH between January 2011 and December 2019 were identified. We performed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) on the Cox regression model with the R package glmnet. A concordance index was performed to calculate the nomogram discrimination; and calibration curves and decision curves were graphically evaluated by depicting the observed rates against the probabilities predicted by the nomogram. Results: A total of 204 eligible patients were analyzed, and over 20 % of the population was above the age of 80 (65-79 years old, n = 161; 80+ years old, n = 43). A hematoma volume ≥13.64 cm3 was associated with higher 7-day mortality (OR = 6.773, 95 % CI = 2.622-19.481; p < 0.001) and higher 90-day mortality (OR = 3.955, 95 % CI = 1.611-10.090, p = 0.003). A GCS score between 13 and 15 at admission was associated with a 7-day favorable outcome (OR = 0.025, 95 % CI = 0.005-0.086; p < 0.001) and a 90-day favorable outcome (OR = 0.033, 95 % CI = 0.010-0.099; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our nomogram models were visualized and accurate. Neurosurgeons could use them to assess the prognostic factors and provide advice to patients and their relatives.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the risk factors for patients, who had hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)-specific location hemorrhage without hypertensive history, to elucidate a novel and detailed understanding. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review to identify patients diagnosed with hemorrhage in hypertensive ICH-specific locations without hypertensive history between January 2011 and December 2019 from West China Hospital. A least absolute shrinkage and selector operation (LASSO) algorithm was used to select the optimal prognostic factors, and then we performed a multivariable logistic analysis. To verify the accuracy of the nomogram in predicting patient outcome, we used Harrell's statistics, area under the curve, and a calibration as well as decision curves. RESULTS: The LASSO method, at a tenfold cross-validation for 7-day mortality, 90-day mortality, and 90-day morbidity, was applied to construct the prognosis-predicting models. Both a higher Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score at admission and larger hematoma volume ≥13.64 mL were independently associated with better survival at 7 days and 90 days in multivariate analysis. Lactic dehydrogenase >250 IU/L and neutrophilic granulocyte/lymphocyte ratio in 1 increase were significantly associated with poor outcome at 90 days. Only one factor (GCS score at 7 days) influencing 90-day morbidity remained in a LASSO model. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the GCS score, hematoma volume, and other laboratory factors (Lactic dehydrogenase and neutrophilic granulocyte/lymphocyte ratio) were related to survival. Our current findings of the specific location ICH need to be proven by a large randomized controlled trial study.
