RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The aim is to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends in the burden of children and adolescents under 14 from 1990 to 2019, as well as future trend predictions. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease (GBD), we reported the incidence, prevalence rate and the years lived with disability (YLDs), the incidence per 100,000 people, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). We further analyzed these global trends by age, gender, and social development index (SDI). We use joinpoint regression analysis to determine the year with the largest global trend change. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) was used for predictions. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs of AD under 14 years old showed a downward trend. The incidence rate of AD among people under 5 years old has the largest decline [AAPC: -0.13 (95% CI: -0.15 to -0.11), P < 0.001]. The incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs of AD in women were higher than those in men regardless of age group. Regional, Asia has the highest AD incidence rate in 2019. National, Mongolia has the highest AD incidence rate in 2019. The largest drop in AD incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs between 1990 and 2019 was in the United States. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence rate of children and adolescents under 14 declined. With the emergence of therapeutic drugs, the prevalence and YLDs rate declined significantly. From 2020 to 2030, there is still a downward trend.
