Meet the authors: Yong Chen, Xiqun (Michael) Chen, and Ziyou Gao.

In their recent publication in Patterns, the authors proposed a novel multi-scale unified mobility model to capture the universal-scale laws of individual and population movement within urban agglomerations. This People of Data highlights the contributions of their work to the field and the critical role data science plays in research and the research community.

A multi-scale unified model of human mobility in urban agglomerations.

Understanding human mobility patterns is vital for the coordinated development of cities in urban agglomerations. Existing mobility models can capture single-scale travel behavior within or between cities, but the unified modeling of multi-scale human mobility in urban agglomerations is still analytically and computationally intractable. In this study, by simulating people's mental representations of physical space, we decompose and model the human travel choice process as a cascaded multi-class classification problem. Our multi-scale unified model, built upon cascaded deep neural networks, can predict human mobility in world-class urban agglomerations with thousands of regions. By incorporating individual memory features and population attractiveness features extracted by a graph generative adversarial network, our model can simultaneously predict multi-scale individual and population mobility patterns within urban agglomerations. Our model serves as an exemplar framework for reproducing universal-scale laws of human mobility across various spatial scales, providing vital decision support for urban settings of urban agglomerations.

Evaluating alternate discrete outcome frameworks for modeling riders' red light running behavior.

This paper aims to empirically evaluate the ordered and unordered discrete outcome frameworks to approach riders' red-light running (RLR) decisions and compare the differences in influencing factors between riders' risk-taking and opportunistic RLR behaviors. A total of 2057 cyclist samples approaching the intersections during red signals were observed by video in Beijing, China. To better capture the unobserved heterogeneity, apart from the traditional models, three advanced models including the random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit (RTRPHOL) model, the random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPLHMV) model, and the correlated random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPLHM), are developed. Results show that: 1) the unordered framework statistically outperformed its ordered counterparts, and the RPLHMV and CRPLHM models are statistically better than others. 2) The female and e-bicycle indicators produce a heterogeneity-in-means effect, and the low-volume and left-side indicators produce a heterogeneity-in-variances effect. 3) e-bike riders and riders from the right side are more inclined to have risk-taking behavior than opportunistic behavior, and both RLR behaviors of cyclists are most susceptible to the number of violating individual indicator. Findings illustrate that multilayer unobserved heterogeneity should be adequately considered in developing precise micro-simulation and practical guidance in traffic safety.

Understanding common human driving semantics for autonomous vehicles.

Autonomous vehicles will share roads with human-driven vehicles until the transition to fully autonomous transport systems is complete. The critical challenge of improving mutual understanding between both vehicle types cannot be addressed only by feeding extensive driving data into data-driven models but by enabling autonomous vehicles to understand and apply common driving behaviors analogous to human drivers. Therefore, we designed and conducted two electroencephalography experiments for comparing the cerebral activities of human linguistics and driving understanding. The results showed that driving activates hierarchical neural functions in the auditory cortex, which is analogous to abstraction in linguistic understanding. Subsequently, we proposed a neural-informed, semantics-driven framework to understand common human driving behavior in a brain-inspired manner. This study highlights the pathway of fusing neuroscience into complex human behavior understanding tasks and provides a computational neural model to understand human driving behaviors, which will enable autonomous vehicles to perceive and think like human drivers.

Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19.

To investigate the interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19, we collected data on human mobility trends, population density, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, daily new confirmed cases (or deaths), and the total confirmed cases (or deaths), as well as governmental travel restriction policies from 33 countries. The data collection period was from April 2020 to February 2022, resulting in 24,090 data points. We then developed a structural causal model to describe the causal relationship between these variables. Using the Dowhy method to solve the developed model, we found several significant results that passed the refutation test. Specifically, travel restriction policies played an important role in slowing the spread of COVID-19 until May 2021. International travel controls and school closures had an impact on reducing the spread of the pandemic beyond the impact of travel restrictions. Additionally, May 2021 marked a turning point in the spread of COVID-19 as it became more infectious, but the mortality rate gradually decreased. The impact of travel restriction policies on human mobility and the pandemic diminished over time. Overall, the cancellation of public events and restrictions on public gatherings were more effective than other travel restriction policies. Our findings provide insights into the effects of travel restriction policies and travel behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19, while controlling for informational and other confounding variables. This experience can be applied in the future to respond to emergent infectious diseases.

A Distributionally Robust Optimization Method for Passenger Flow Control Strategy and Train Scheduling on an Urban Rail Transit Line.

Regular coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic prevention and control have raised new requirements that necessitate operation-strategy innovation in urban rail transit. To alleviate increasingly serious congestion and further reduce the risk of cross-infection, a novel two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model is explicitly constructed, in which the probability distribution of stochastic scenarios is only partially known in advance. In the proposed model, the mean-conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion is employed to obtain a tradeoff between the expected number of waiting passengers and the risk of congestion on an urban rail transit line. The relationship between the proposed DRO model and the traditional two-stage stochastic programming (SP) model is also depicted. Furthermore, to overcome the obstacle of model solvability resulting from imprecise probability distributions, a discrepancy-based ambiguity set is used to transform the robust counterpart into its computationally tractable form. A hybrid algorithm that combines a local search algorithm with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) solver is developed to improve the computational efficiency of large-scale instances. Finally, a series of numerical examples with real-world operation data are executed to validate the proposed approaches.

The effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China.

To verify the effects of Wuhan highway lockdown measures on the spread of COVID-19 across China cities, we extracted the vehicle outflow from Wuhan to 245 cities from the Chinese highway toll system. A dynamic exponential risk model that considered the vehicle outflow, city gross domestic product, city population, and distance between two cities was established to characterize the spread of pandemics and quantify the blocking effects. Results showed that an early highway lockdown measure could indeed reduce the confirmed cases and vehicles with 1-9 seats played a leading role. The confirmed cases in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi could be reduced by more than 50%, as well as Hubei by 20% if the highway was closed 3 days in advance. The blocking effects on Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, and Shandong were not obvious, where the number of confirmed cases only decreased by a small proportion (below 10%). The findings could be used to help each provincial government to adjust policies properly and improve the effectiveness of epidemic control and prevention. Moreover, the proposed method could also be applied to various countries or regions affected by COVID-19, as well as other similar pandemics.

Multiple metastable network states in urban traffic.

While abrupt regime shifts between different metastable states have occurred in natural systems from many areas including ecology, biology, and climate, evidence for this phenomenon in transportation systems has been rarely observed so far. This limitation might be rooted in the fact that we lack methods to identify and analyze possible multiple states that could emerge at scales of the entire traffic network. Here, using percolation approaches, we observe such a metastable regime in traffic systems. In particular, we find multiple metastable network states, corresponding to varying levels of traffic performance, which recur over different days. Based on high-resolution global positioning system (GPS) datasets of urban traffic in the megacities of Beijing and Shanghai (each with over 50,000 road segments), we find evidence supporting the existence of tipping points separating three regimes: a global functional regime and a metastable hysteresis-like regime, followed by a global collapsed regime. We can determine the intrinsic critical points where the metastable hysteresis-like regime begins and ends and show that these critical points are very similar across different days. Our findings provide a better understanding of traffic resilience patterns and could be useful for designing early warning signals for traffic resilience management and, potentially, other complex systems.

Design of a heuristic environment-friendly road pricing scheme for traffic emission control under uncertainty.

Road transportation is one of the main sources of atmospheric emissions in many countries and areas. Road pricing, is not only effective for urban transportation management, but also helpful in reducing the negative externalities caused by transportation. In this study, an inexact two-phase minimal emission programming (TMEP) model is proposed for design of the environment-friendly toll scheme with an acceptable road network performance. Through introduction of fuzzy stochastic programming, multiple uncertainties involved in vehicle emission evaluation are dealt with; the Traffic Performance Index (TPI) based constraints are incorporated to reflect the decision-maker's requirements for network congestion management. The solution method is proposed for generating the range of fuzzy stochastic objectives. An optimal toll scheme associated with the minimal emission based flow pattern is obtained through searching for a set of the best and the worst optimal solutions. A numerical experiment and a real-world road network in Beijing of China are used to illustrate the application of the developed method. In the case study, the toll scheme is obtained at the desired congestion level. The effects of emission and congestion abatement are analyzed under different policy scenarios. The proposed TMEP method can generate the toll scheme with obvious improvements in total emission reduction and congestion mitigation.

Switch between critical percolation modes in city traffic dynamics.

Percolation transition is widely observed in networks ranging from biology to engineering. While much attention has been paid to network topologies, studies rarely focus on critical percolation phenomena driven by network dynamics. Using extensive real data, we study the critical percolation properties in city traffic dynamics. Our results suggest that two modes of different critical percolation behaviors are switching in the same network topology under different traffic dynamics. One mode of city traffic (during nonrush hours or days off) has similar critical percolation characteristics as small world networks, while the other mode (during rush hours on working days) tends to behave as a 2D lattice. This switching behavior can be understood by the fact that the high-speed urban roads during nonrush hours or days off (that are congested during rush hours) represent effective long-range connections, like in small world networks. Our results might be useful for understanding and improving traffic resilience.

Investigation of Voronoi diagram based direction choices using uni- and bi-directional trajectory data.

In a crowd, individuals make different motion choices such as "moving to destination," "following another pedestrian," and "making a detour." For the sake of convenience, the three direction choices are respectively called destination direction, following direction, and detour direction in this paper. Here, it is found that the featured direction choices could be inspired by the shape characteristics of the Voronoi diagram. To be specific, in the Voronoi cell of a pedestrian, the direction to a Voronoi node is regarded as a potential "detour" direction and the direction perpendicular to a Voronoi link is regarded as a potential "following" direction. A pedestrian generally owns several alternative Voronoi nodes and Voronoi links in a Voronoi cell, and the optimal detour and following direction are determined by considering related factors such as deviation. Plus the destination direction which is directly pointing to the destination, the three basic direction choices are defined in a Voronoi cell. In order to evaluate the Voronoi diagram based basic directions, the empirical trajectory data in both uni- and bi-directional flow experiments are extracted. A time series method considering the step frequency is used to reduce the original trajectories' swaying phenomena which might disturb the recognition of actual forward direction. The deviations between the empirical velocity direction and the basic directions are investigated, and each velocity direction is classified into a basic direction or regarded as an inexplicable direction according to the deviations. The analysis results show that each basic direction could be a potential direction choice for a pedestrian. The combination of the three basic directions could cover most empirical velocity direction choices in both uni- and bi-directional flow experiments.

Scaling tunable network model to reproduce the density-driven superlinear relation.

Previous works have shown the universality of allometric scaling under total and density values at the city level, but our understanding of the size effects of regions on the universality of allometric scaling remains inadequate. Here, we revisit the scaling relations between the gross domestic production (GDP) and the population based on the total and density values and first reveal that the allometric scaling under density values for different regions is universal. The scaling exponent ß under the density value is in the range of (1.0, 2.0], which unexpectedly exceeds the range observed by Pan et al. [Nat. Commun. 4, 1961 (2013)]. For the wider range, we propose a network model based on a 2D lattice space with the spatial correlation factor α as a parameter. Numerical experiments prove that the generated scaling exponent ß in our model is fully tunable by the spatial correlation factor α. Our model will furnish a general platform for extensive urban and regional studies.

Equal status in Ultimatum Games promotes rational sharing.

Experiments on the Ultimatum Game (UG) repeatedly show that people's behaviour is far from rational. In UG experiments, a subject proposes how to divide a pot and the other can accept or reject the proposal, in which case both lose everything. While rational people would offer and accept the minimum possible amount, in experiments low offers are often rejected and offers are typically larger than the minimum, and even fair. Several theoretical works have proposed that these results may arise evolutionarily when subjects act in both roles and there is a fixed interaction structure in the population specifying who plays with whom. We report the first experiments on structured UG with subjects playing simultaneously both roles. We observe that acceptance levels of responders approach rationality and proposers accommodate their offers to their environment. More precisely, subjects keep low acceptance levels all the time, but as proposers they follow a best-response-like approach to choose their offers. We thus find that status equality promotes rational sharing while the influence of structure leads to fairer offers compared to well-mixed populations. Our results are far from what is observed in single-role UG experiments and largely different from available predictions based on evolutionary game theory.

Universal model of individual and population mobility on diverse spatial scales.

Studies of human mobility in the past decade revealed a number of general scaling laws. However, to reproduce the scaling behaviors quantitatively at both the individual and population levels simultaneously remains to be an outstanding problem. Moreover, recent evidence suggests that spatial scales have a significant effect on human mobility, raising the need for formulating a universal model suited for human mobility at different levels and spatial scales. Here we develop a general model by combining memory effect and population-induced competition to enable accurate prediction of human mobility based on population distribution only. A variety of individual and collective mobility patterns such as scaling behaviors and trajectory motifs are accurately predicted for different countries and cities of diverse spatial scales. Our model establishes a universal underlying mechanism capable of explaining a variety of human mobility behaviors, and has significant applications for understanding many dynamical processes associated with human mobility.

Analysis of Road Network Pattern Considering Population Distribution and Central Business District.

This paper proposes a road network growing model with the consideration of population distribution and central business district (CBD) attraction. In the model, the relative neighborhood graph (RNG) is introduced as the connection mechanism to capture the characteristics of road network topology. The simulation experiment is set up to illustrate the effects of population distribution and CBD attraction on the characteristics of road network. Moreover, several topological attributes of road network is evaluated by using coverage, circuitness, treeness and total length in the experiment. Finally, the suggested model is verified in the simulation of China and Beijing Highway networks.

An accelerated failure time model for investigating pedestrian crossing behavior and waiting times at signalized intersections.

The waiting process is crucial to pedestrians in the street-crossing behavior. Once pedestrians terminate their waiting behavior during the red light period, they would cross against the red light and put themselves in danger. A joint hazard-based duration model is developed to investigate the effect of various covariates on pedestrian crossing behavior and to estimate pedestrian waiting times at signalized intersections. A total of 1181 pedestrians approaching the intersections during red light periods were observed in Beijing, China. Pedestrian crossing behaviors are classified into immediate crossing behavior and waiting behavior. The probability and effect of various covariates for pedestrians' immediate crossing behavior are identified by a logit model. Four accelerated failure time duration models based on the exponential, Weibull, lognormal and log-logistic distributions are proposed to examine the significant risk factors affecting duration times for pedestrians' waiting behavior. A joint duration model is developed to estimate pedestrian waiting times. Moreover, unobserved heterogeneity is considered in the proposed model. The results indicate that the Weibull AFT model with shared frailty is appropriate for modelling pedestrian waiting durations. Failure to account for heterogeneity would significantly underestimate the effects of covariates on waiting duration times. The proposed model provides a better understanding of pedestrian crossing behavior and more accurate estimation of pedestrian waiting times. It may be applicable in traffic system analysis in developing countries with high flow of mixed traffic.

A hazard-based duration model for analyzing crossing behavior of cyclists and electric bike riders at signalized intersections.

This paper presents a hazard-based duration approach to investigate riders' waiting times, violation hazards, associated risk factors, and their differences between cyclists and electric bike riders at signalized intersections. A total of 2322 two-wheeled riders approaching the intersections during red light periods were observed in Beijing, China. The data were classified into censored and uncensored data to distinguish between safe crossing and red-light running behavior. The results indicated that the red-light crossing behavior of most riders was dependent on waiting time. They were inclined to terminate waiting behavior and run against the traffic light with the increase of waiting duration. Over half of the observed riders cannot endure 49s or longer. 25% of the riders can endure 97s or longer. Rider type, gender, waiting position, conformity tendency and crossing traffic volume were identified to have significant effects on riders' waiting times and violation hazards. Electric bike riders were found to be more sensitive to the external risk factors such as other riders' crossing behavior and crossing traffic volume than cyclists. Moreover, unobserved heterogeneity was examined in the proposed models. The finding of this paper can explain when and why cyclists and electric bike riders run against the red light at intersections. The results of this paper are useful for traffic design and management agencies to implement strategies to enhance the safety of riders.

Stabilization strategies of a general nonlinear car-following model with varying reaction-time delay of the drivers.

In this paper, the stabilization strategies of a general nonlinear car-following model with reaction-time delay of the drivers are investigated. The reaction-time delay of the driver is time varying and bounded. By using the Lyapunov stability theory, the sufficient condition for the existence of the state feedback control strategy for the stability of the car-following model is given in the form of linear matrix inequality, under which the traffic jam can be well suppressed with respect to the varying reaction-time delay. Moreover, by considering the external disturbance for the running cars, the robust state feedback control strategy is designed, which ensures robust stability and a smaller prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level for the traffic flow. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Traffic experiment reveals the nature of car-following.

As a typical self-driven many-particle system far from equilibrium, traffic flow exhibits diverse fascinating non-equilibrium phenomena, most of which are closely related to traffic flow stability and specifically the growth/dissipation pattern of disturbances. However, the traffic theories have been controversial due to a lack of precise traffic data. We have studied traffic flow from a new perspective by carrying out large-scale car-following experiment on an open road section, which overcomes the intrinsic deficiency of empirical observations. The experiment has shown clearly the nature of car-following, which runs against the traditional traffic flow theory. Simulations show that by removing the fundamental notion in the traditional car-following models and allowing the traffic state to span a two-dimensional region in velocity-spacing plane, the growth pattern of disturbances has changed qualitatively and becomes qualitatively or even quantitatively in consistent with that observed in the experiment.

Quantifying information flow during emergencies.

Recent advances on human dynamics have focused on the normal patterns of human activities, with the quantitative understanding of human behavior under extreme events remaining a crucial missing chapter. This has a wide array of potential applications, ranging from emergency response and detection to traffic control and management. Previous studies have shown that human communications are both temporally and spatially localized following the onset of emergencies, indicating that social propagation is a primary means to propagate situational awareness. We study real anomalous events using country-wide mobile phone data, finding that information flow during emergencies is dominated by repeated communications. We further demonstrate that the observed communication patterns cannot be explained by inherent reciprocity in social networks, and are universal across different demographics.