Analysis of the renal transplant waiting list in the País Valencià (Spain).

In this paper we analyse the renal transplant waiting list of the País Valencià in Spain, using Queueing theory. The customers of this queue are patients with end-stage renal failure waiting for a kidney transplant. We set up a simplified model to represent the flow of the customers through the system, and perform Bayesian inference to estimate parameters in the model. Finally, we consider several scenarios by tuning the estimations achieved and computationally simulate the behaviour of the queue under each one. The results indicate that the system could reach equilibrium at some point in the future and the model forecasts a slow decrease in the size of the waiting list in the short and middle term.

Informe de diálisis y trasplante correspondiente al año 2002 de la Sociedad Española de Nefrología y Registros Autonómicos / The year 2002 Spanish Nephrology Society Report on Dialysis and Transplantation and Autonomic Registries

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