RESUMO
In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.
RESUMO
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) is having a major impact on mortality and survival in most countries of the world, with Mexico being one of the countries most heavily impacted by the pandemic. In this paper, we study the impact of COVID-19 deaths on period life expectancy at birth in Mexico by sex and state. We focus on the loss of life expectancy at different ages as a geographically comparable measure of the pandemic's impact on the population in 2020. Results show that males have been affected more than women since they have lost more years of life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19, and they have also experienced a high variation of life expectancy loss across states. The biggest life expectancy loss concentrates in the Northeastern, Central, and Southeastern (Yucatan peninsula) states. Considering the likely undercount associated with COVID-19 deaths, sensitivity analysis suggests that the new coronavirus is having a much larger impact on life expectancy in Mexico than the official government data appears to indicate. Continuos assessment of the pandemic will help state governments quantify the effect of current and new public health measures.
La nouvelle maladie à coronavirus (COVID-19) a un impact majeur sur la mortalité et la survie dans la plupart des pays du monde, le Mexique étant parmi les pays les plus fortement touchés par la pandémie. Dans cet article, nous étudions l'impact des décès dus à la COVID-19 sur l'espérance de vie à la naissance comme mesure géographiquement comparable de l'impact de la pandémie sur la population en 2020. Les résultats montrent que les hommes ont été plus touchés que les femmes, ils ont perdu plus d'années d'espérance de vie à la naissance en raison de la COVID-19 et ont également connu une forte variation de la perte d'espérance de vie entre les États mexicains. La plus grande perte d'espérance de vie est concentrée dans les États du nord-est, du centre et du sud-est (péninsule du Yucatan). L'analyse de sensibilité tient compte du sous-dénombrement probable associé aux décès dus à la COVID-19 et suggère que la maladie a un impact beaucoup plus important sur l'espérance de vie au Mexique que les données officielles du gouvernement ne semblent l'indiquer. Une évaluation continue de la pandémie aidera les gouvernements des États à quantifier l'effet des mesures de santé publique actuelles et nouvelles à mesure que la pandémie se poursuit.
