Gaps and opportunities: measuring the key population cascade through surveys and services to guide the HIV response.

INTRODUCTION: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to diagnose 90% of people living with HIV, put 90% of them on treatment, and for 90% of them to have suppressed viral load have focused the international HIV response on the goal of eliminating HIV by 2030. They are also a constructive tool for measuring progress toward reaching this goal but their utility is dependent upon data availability. Though more than 25% of new infections are among key populations (KP)- sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people, people who inject drugs, and prisoners- and their sex partners, there is a dearth of treatment cascade data for KP. We assess the availability of cascade data and review the opportunities offered by biobehavioral and programme data to inform the HIV response. DISCUSSION: The emphasis on the collection of treatment cascade data among the general population in higher prevalence countries has not led to a similar increase in the availability of cascade data for KP. The limited data available for KP highlight large gaps in service uptake across the cascade, particularly in the first 90, awareness of HIV status. Biobehavioral surveys (BBS), with linked population size estimation, provide population-based data on the treatment cascade and should be conducted every two to three years in locations with services for KP. With the inclusion of viral load testing, these surveys are able to monitor the entire treatment cascade among KP regardless of whether these populations access HIV services targeting the general population or KP. BBS also reach people accessing services and those who do not, thereby providing a unique opportunity to learn about barriers to service uptake including stigma and discrimination. At the same time high-quality programme data can play a complementary role in identifying missed opportunities that can be addressed in real-time. CONCLUSIONS: Data are more important than ever for guiding the HIV response toward reaching 90-90-90 targets and eliminating HIV, particularly in the face of decreased funding for HIV and specifically for KP. Timely high-quality BBS data can be triangulated with high-quality programme data to provide a comprehensive picture of the epidemic response for KP.

Developing and implementing national health identifiers in resource limited countries: why, what, who, when and how?

Many resource-limited countries are scaling up health services and health-information systems (HISs). The HIV Cascade framework aims to link treatment services and programs to improve outcomes and impact. It has been adapted to HIV prevention services, other infectious and non-communicable diseases, and programs for specific populations. Where successful, it links the use of health services by individuals across different disease categories, time and space. This allows for the development of longitudinal health records for individuals and de-identified individual level information is used to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome and impact of health services. Contemporary digital technology enables countries to develop and implement integrated HIS to support person centred services, a major aim of the Sustainable Development Goals. The key to link the diverse sources of information together is a national health identifier (NHID). In a country with robust civil protections, this should be given at birth, be unique to the individual, linked to vital registration services and recorded every time that an individual uses health services anywhere in the country: it is more than just a number as it is part of a wider system. Many countries would benefit from practical guidance on developing and implementing NHIDs. Organizations such as ASTM and ISO, describe the technical requirements for the NHID system, but few countries have received little practical guidance. A WHO/UNAIDS stake-holders workshop was held in Geneva, Switzerland in July 2016, to provide a 'road map' for countries and included policy-makers, information and healthcare professionals, and members of civil society. As part of any NHID system, countries need to strengthen and secure the protection of personal health information. While often the technology is available, the solution is not just technical. It requires political will and collaboration among all stakeholders to be successful.

Viral Hepatitis Strategic Information to Achieve Elimination by 2030: Key Elements for HIV Program Managers.

Evidence documenting the global burden of disease from viral hepatitis was essential for the World Health Assembly to endorse the first Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis in May 2016. The GHSS on viral hepatitis proposes to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. The GHSS on viral hepatitis is in line with targets for HIV infection and tuberculosis as part of the Sustainable Development Goals. As coordination between hepatitis and HIV programs aims to optimize the use of resources, guidance is also needed to align the strategic information components of the 2 programs. The World Health Organization monitoring and evaluation framework for viral hepatitis B and C follows an approach similar to the one of HIV, including components on the following: (1) context (prevalence of infection), (2) input, (3) output and outcome, including the cascade of prevention and treatment, and (4) impact (incidence and mortality). Data systems that are needed to inform this framework include (1) surveillance for acute hepatitis, chronic infections, and sequelae and (2) program data documenting prevention and treatment, which for the latter includes a database of patients. Overall, the commonalities between HIV and hepatitis at the strategic, policy, technical, and implementation levels justify coordination, strategic linkage, or integration, depending on the type of HIV and viral hepatitis epidemics. Strategic information is a critical area of this alignment under the principle of what gets measured gets done. It is facilitated because the monitoring and evaluation frameworks for HIV and viral hepatitis were constructed using a similar approach. However, for areas where elimination of viral hepatitis requires data that cannot be collected through the HIV program, collaborations are needed with immunization, communicable disease control, tuberculosis, and hepatology centers to ensure collection of information for the remaining indicators.

Availability and Quality of Size Estimations of Female Sex Workers, Men Who Have Sex with Men, People Who Inject Drugs and Transgender Women in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the availability and quality of population size estimations of female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drug (PWID) and transgender women. METHODS: Size estimation data since 2010 were retrieved from global reporting databases, Global Fund grant application documents, and the peer-reviewed and grey literature. Overall quality and availability were assessed against a defined set of criteria, including estimation methods, geographic coverage, and extrapolation approaches. Estimates were compositely categorized into 'nationally adequate', 'nationally inadequate but locally adequate', 'documented but inadequate methods', 'undocumented or untimely' and 'no data.' FINDINGS: Of 140 countries assessed, 41 did not report any estimates since 2010. Among 99 countries with at least one estimate, 38 were categorized as having nationally adequate estimates and 30 as having nationally inadequate but locally adequate estimates. Multiplier, capture-recapture, census and enumeration, and programmatic mapping were the most commonly used methods. Most countries relied on only one estimate for a given population while about half of all reports included national estimates. A variety of approaches were applied to extrapolate from sites-level numbers to national estimates in two-thirds of countries. CONCLUSIONS: Size estimates for FSW, MSM, PWID and transgender women are increasingly available but quality varies widely. The different approaches present challenges for data use in design, implementation and evaluation of programs for these populations in half of the countries assessed. Guidance should be further developed to recommend: a) applying multiple estimation methods; b) estimating size for a minimum number of sites; and, c) documenting extrapolation approaches.

Routine feedback of test results to participants in clinic- and survey-based surveillance of HIV.

Surveillance for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in low- and middle-income countries started in the 1980s. However, the questions of whether the results of HIV tests should be given to participants, and if so how, has still not been resolved. In the absence of effective treatment, it was considered acceptable to withhold results from HIV-positive participants. However, when antiretroviral treatment is available, some argue for beneficence - that it is the researcher's duty to return the test results to all those who provide samples for surveillance. The corollary is that only participants who wish to receive their test results would be eligible to participate in surveys. Others argue for autonomy - that to obtain a more representative result for the general population, surveys should not exclude participants who do not wish to receive their test results. This round table discussion takes a closer look at those two arguments. We believe that the global community should work towards routine feedback of HIV surveillance while ensuring that participants receive and understand their test results.

La surveillance du virus de l'immunodéficience humaine (VIH) dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire a commencé dans les années 1980. Les résultats des tests VIH doivent-ils être communiqués aux participants et si oui, comment ? En l'absence de traitement efficace, il avait été jugé acceptable de ne pas divulguer leur séropositivité aux participants infectés par le VIH. En revanche, dès lors qu'un traitement antirétroviral est disponible, certains évoquent le principe de bienfaisance et estiment qu'il est du devoir du chercheur de communiquer les résultats des tests à tous ceux qui ont fourni des échantillons à des fins de surveillance. Mais le corollaire est que seuls les participants qui acceptent d'être informés des résultats de leur test seraient alors éligibles pour participer à ce type d'enquêtes. D'autres avancent le principe d'autonomie, en disant que pour obtenir un résultat plus représentatif de la population générale, ces enquêtes ne doivent pas exclure les participants qui ne souhaitent pas recevoir leurs résultats. Cette table ronde examine en détail ces deux positions. Nous pensons que la communauté internationale devrait œuvrer pour une rétroaction systématique autour de la surveillance du VIH, en veillant à ce que les participants reçoivent et comprennent les résultats de leurs tests.

El seguimiento del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) en países de ingresos bajos y medios empezó en los años ochenta. ¿Deberían proporcionarse los resultados de las pruebas del VIH a los participantes? Si es así, ¿de qué modo? A falta de tratamiento efectivo, se consideró aceptable retener los resultados de los participantes VIH-positivos. Sin embargo, cuando se dispone de tratamiento antirretroviral, hay quien defiende la beneficencia, es decir, que es el deber del investigador informar de los resultados de las pruebas a todos aquellos que proporcionen muestras para el seguimiento. La consecuencia de esto es que solo los participantes que quieran recibir los resultados de sus pruebas reunirían los requisitos para participar en las encuestas. Otros defienden la autonomía, es decir, que para obtener un resultado más representativo de la población en general, las encuestas no deberían excluir a los participantes que no quieran recibir los resultados de sus pruebas. Este debate de mesa redonda analiza con más detenimiento estos dos argumentos. Creemos que la comunidad mundial debería trabajar por la información rutinaria del seguimiento del VIH, al mismo tiempo que garantiza que los participantes reciban y entiendan los resultados de sus pruebas.

Outcomes and impact of HIV prevention, ART and TB programs in Swaziland--early evidence from public health triangulation.

INTRODUCTION: Swaziland's severe HIV epidemic inspired an early national response since the late 1980s, and regular reporting of program outcomes since the onset of a national antiretroviral treatment (ART) program in 2004. We assessed effectiveness outcomes and mortality trends in relation to ART, HIV testing and counseling (HTC), tuberculosis (TB) and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT). METHODS: Data triangulated include intervention coverage and outcomes according to program registries (2001-2010), hospital admissions and deaths disaggregated by age and sex (2001-2010) and population mortality estimates from the 1997 and 2007 censuses and the 2007 demographic and health survey. RESULTS: By 2010, ART reached 70% of the estimated number of people living with HIV/AIDS with CD4<350/mm(3), with progressively improving patient retention and survival. As of 2010, 88% of health facilities providing antenatal care offered comprehensive PMTCT services. The HTC program recorded a halving in the proportion of adults tested who were HIV-infected; similarly HIV infection rates among HIV-exposed babies halved from 2007 to 2010. Case fatality rates among hospital patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS started to decrease from 2005-6 in adults and especially in children, contrasting with stable case fatality for other causes including TB. All-cause child in-patient case fatality rates started to decrease from 2005-6. TB case notifications as well as rates of HIV/TB co-infection among notified TB patients continued a steady increase through 2010, while coverage of HIV testing and CPT for co-infected patients increased to above 80%. CONCLUSION: Against a background of high, but stable HIV prevalence and decreasing HIV incidence, we documented early evidence of a mortality decline associated with the expanded national HIV response since 2004. Attribution of impact to specific interventions (versus natural epidemic dynamics) will require additional data from future household surveys, and improved routine (program, surveillance, and hospital) data at district level.

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15-24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV. METHODS: Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15-49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested. RESULTS: Among 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.

Methods and procedures for estimating HIV/AIDS and its impact: the UNAIDS/WHO estimates for the end of 2001.

BACKGROUND: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have produced country-specific estimates of HIV/AIDS biannually since 1997. These estimates are a primary source of information about the extent and spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact. The importance of having comparable country-specific estimates of HIV/AIDS is growing as estimates are used to determine how international resources to fight HIV/AIDS will be allocated to countries. OBJECTIVES: This paper describes the procedures and process used to make the 2001 round of UNAIDS/WHO estimates of HIV/AIDS. The paper focuses on the different approaches used to make estimates of prevalence in countries with generalized and low-level and concentrated epidemics as well as on new curve-fitting software that was developed to produce epidemic curves for each country. In addition, it presents the assumptions used (e.g. survival from infection to death, the rate of mother-to-child transmission) that are required to derive estimates of incidence and mortality in adults, as well as prevalence, incidence and mortality in children. CONCLUSION: The paper describes the general process by which the estimation and modelling procedures have been refined and improved over time. The paper also discusses the limitations and weaknesses of the procedures and the data used to make the estimates, and suggests areas where further improvements need to be made.