RESUMO
Perovskite solar cells have shown considerable developments in the last decade, and commercial applications are drawing closer. In this article, we present a techno-economic study of perovskite PV technologies. We compare published data on manufacturing costs of single-junction perovskite modules and find that they are dependent on the module design (rigid or flexible) and vary from 10 to almost 100 per m2. We calculate the LCOE as a function of module efficiency and stability for a set of four module cost scenarios at 12.5, 25, 50, and 100 per m2. The resulting LCOE varies from 4.3 to 25.5 ct kW-1 h-1 and shows low potential for immediate competition with crystalline silicon PV in the utility sector. Perovskite PV's competitive advantage lies in both lighter and less rigid modules, and in the development of tandem modules together with silicon. We hence extend the LCOE equation to highlight the benefit of producing flexible low-weight modules by roll-to-roll manufacturing, and modify the LCOE maps to showcase the benefits of tandem modules. Based on learning curve analyses applied to the CAPEX of single-junction and tandem modules, we develop three scenarios for the evolution of the LCOE of perovskite modules from 2025 to 2050. Under the optimistic scenarios, we find that the LCOE could reduce to 2.8 ct kW-1 h-1 by 2050.
