Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.

The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps.

Comparison of the Q-fever complement fixation test and two commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the detection of serum antibodies against Coxiella burnetti (Q-fever) in ruminants : recommendations for use of serological tests on imported animals in New Zealand.

AIM: To make valid recommendations on the use of serological test methods for the detection of serum antibodies in ruminants against Coxiella burnetii (Q-fever), by comparing the performance of the complement fixation test (CFT) and two ELISA, and by identifying reasons for discrepancies between the test methods. METHODS: A total of 73 serum samples from infected cattle, 69 from infected goats, and 100 samples from non-infected cattle and 57 samples from non-infected sheep, as well as 95 samples from infected cattle herds (mix of seropositive and seronegative samples), were tested using the CFT, the IDEXX ELISA (I-ELISA) and the Pourquier ELISA (P-ELISA). A mixed panel of 12 serum samples from sheep from inter-laboratory proficiency testing (proficiency panel) was also tested using the CFT and both ELISA, and further investigated using IgG- and IgM-specific ELISA. RESULTS: Generally, the two commercial ELISA were more sensitive than the CFT for the detection of infected ruminants. Good agreement between ELISA for positive and negative results was found for samples from the infected herd, while results for the positive panels varied between the two ELISA. For the total of the positive serum panels, the I-ELISA detected 95% of samples as positive or suspicious, while the P-ELISA detected only 81%. In the P-ELISA, more samples were considered suspicious (18%) than in the I-ELISA (14%). All sera from non-infected sheep and cattle tested negative in the serological test methods employed, except for one positive sample from a sheep in the P-ELISA. Further investigation revealed that a CFT-positive but ELISA-negative result was due to high IgM and low IgG reactivity. CONCLUSIONS: The two commercial ELISA were more sensitive than the CFT in all panels from infected ruminants. However, they could only detect IgG. The I-ELISA should be the serological test method of choice for cattle, sheep and goats for import testing of animals into New Zealand because it was more sensitive than the P-ELISA and was equally specific to the PELISA and the CFT. For other animal species, such as deer and camelids, the CFT should still be used since none of the ELISA has been evaluated for these species. This study has shown that the two commercial ELISA will detect the majority of infected ruminants but may miss animals that have not developed an IgG response.

Carotenoid, tocopherol, and retinol concentrations in elderly human brain.

BACKGROUND: Antioxidants, such as tocopherols and carotenoids, have been implicated in the prevention of degenerative diseases. Although correlations have been made between diseases and tissue levels of antioxidants, to date there are no reports of individual carotenoid concentrations in human brain. OBJECTIVE: To measure the major carotenoids, tocopherols, and retinol in frontal and occipital regions of human brain. DESIGN: Ten samples of brain tissue from frontal lobe cortex and occipital cortex of five cadavers were examined. Sections were dissected into gray and white matter, extracted with organic solvents, and analyzed by HPLC. RESULTS: At least 16 carotenoids, 3 tocopherols, and retinol were present in human brain. Major carotenoids were identified as lutein, zeaxanthin, anhydrolutein, alpha- cryptoxanthin, beta- cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene, cis- and trans-betacarotene, and cis- and trans-lycopene. Xanthophylls (oxygenated carotenoids) accounted for 66-77% of total carotenoids in all brain regions examined. Similar to neural retina, the ratio of zeaxanthin to lutein was high and these two xanthophylls were significantly correlated (p <0.0001). The tocopherol isomers occurred in the brain over a wider range of mean concentrations (0.11-17.9 nmol/g) than either retinol (87.8 - 163.3 pmol/g) or the identified carotenoids (1.8-23.0 pmol/g). CONCLUSIONS: The frontal cortex, generally vulnerable in Alzheimer's disease, had higher concentrations of all analytes than the occipital cortex which is generally unaffected. Moreover, frontal lobes, but not occipital lobes, exhibited an age-related decline in retinol, total tocopherols, total xanthophylls and total carotenoids. The importance of these differences and the role(s) of these antioxidants in the brain remain to be determined.

Survival of nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae in macrophages.

In this study we have investigated the ability of nonencapsulated, nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae, NT477 to survive in the J774 mouse macrophage-like cell line. Viable, intracellular nontypeable H. influenzae could still be recovered from macrophages 72 h after phagocytosis. In contrast, H. influenzae strain Rd, an avirulent, nonencapsulated variant of a serotype d strain, was killed within 24 h. These differences suggest that NT477, in comparison to Rd, possesses unique attributes that enable it to survive in macrophages for prolonged periods. To determine whether this trait is ubiquitous amongst nontypeable H. influenzae, 33 primary clinical isolates obtained from children with otitis media were screened for their ability to survive in macrophages. Of these isolates, 82% were able to persist in an intracellular environment for periods of at least 24 h. The number of viable organisms recovered at this time ranged from 2x10(4) to 50 colony-forming units per strain indicating that the extent to which nontypeable H. influenzae can resist macrophage-mediated killing varies between strains.

Isolation and characterization of a complementary DNA for the nuclear-coded precursor of the beta-subunit of bovine mitochondrial F1-ATPase.

We have isolated a cDNA clone encoding the precursor of the beta-subunit of the bovine heart mitochondrial F1-ATPase. Two probes were used to isolate this precursor from a bovine heart cDNA library. One probe was a mixed-sequence oligonucleotide directed against a portion of the amino acid sequence of the mature protein, and the other probe was the F1-ATPase beta-subunit gene from Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Determination of the nucleotide sequence of this cDNA reveals that it contains a 1584-nucleotide-long open reading frame that encodes the complete mature beta-subunit protein and a 48 amino acid long NH2-terminal extension. This amino-terminal presequence contains four basic arginine residues, one acidic glutamic acid residue, four polar uncharged serine residues, and five proline residues. Southern blot hybridization analyses suggest that the bovine F1-ATPase beta-subunit precursor is encoded by a single genetic locus. RNA blot hybridization analyses reveal a single mRNA species of approximately 1.9 kilobases from both bovine liver and heart.

DNA-mediated transfer of complex I genes into three different respiration-deficient Chinese hamster mutant cell lines with defects in complex I of electron transport chain.

We have used genomic DNA from human or mouse cells as a calcium phosphate precipitate to transfect three different respiration-deficient Chinese hamster mutant cell lines with defects in complex I of the electron transport chain. Transformants were selected in DMEM containing galactose, a medium in which respiration-deficient cells do not grow. Evidence for the DNA-mediated transformation of these respiration-deficient cells with a putative complex I gene includes: the clones are respiration-positive and respire at rates comparable to those of wild-type human, hamster, or mouse cells; the clones have rotenone-sensitive NADH oxidase activities, indicating a functional complex I of the electron transport chain; and the clones appear to be true transformants, as demonstrated by hybridization and Southern blot analyses. These experiments provide the basis for the isolation and subsequent characterization of several of the genes involved with complex I of the mammalian electron transport chain.

Rapid freezing, frozen storage and the tenderness of lamb.

Cold-shortening in pre-rigor lamb can be prevented by freezing carcasses very rapidly in less than four hours. Thaw-shortening can also be prevented by storing the carcasses for a period (> 10 days) in the frozen state (- 12°C). By this simple combination of rapid freezing and frozen storage, the hazard of toughness development from cold- and thaw-shortenings is avoided.