RESUMO
ImportanceNursing home residents have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic. Prevention recommendations have emphasized frequent testing of healthcare personnel and residents, but additional strategies are needed to protect nursing home residents. ObjectiveWe developed a reproducible index of nursing home crowding and determined whether crowding was associated with incidence of COVID-19 in the first months of the COVID-19 epidemic. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsPopulation-based retrospective cohort study of over 78,000 residents of 618 distinct nursing homes in Ontario, Canada from March 29 to May 20, 2020. ExposureThe nursing home crowding index equalled the average number of residents per bedroom and bathroom. OutcomesPrimary outcomes included the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 infection and mortality, per 100 residents; introduction of COVID-19 into a home ([≥]1 resident case) was a negative tracer. ResultsOf 623 homes in Ontario, we obtained complete information on 618 homes (99%) housing 78,607 residents. A total of 5,218 residents (6.6%) developed COVID-19 infection, and 1,452 (1.8%) died with COVID-19 infection as of May 20, 2020. COVID-19 infection was distributed unevenly across nursing homes: 4,496 (86%) of infections occurred in just 63 (10%) of homes. The crowding index ranged across homes from 1.3 (mainly single-occupancy rooms) to 4.0 (exclusively quadruple occupancy rooms); 308 (50%) homes had high crowding index ([≥]2). Incidence in high crowding index homes was 9.7%, versus 4.5% in low crowding index homes (p<0.001), while COVID-19 mortality was 2.7%, versus 1.3%. The likelihood of COVID-19 introduction did not differ (31.3% vs 30.2%, p=0.79). After adjustment for regional, nursing home, and resident covariates, the crowding index remained associated with increased risk of infection (RR=1.72, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.11-2.65) and mortality (RR=1.72, 95%CI: 1.03-2.86). Propensity score analysis yielded similar conclusions for infection (RR=2.06, 95%CI: 1.34-3.17) and mortality (RR=2.09, 95%CI: 1.30-3.38). Simulations suggested that converting all 4-bed rooms to 2-bed rooms would have averted 988 (18.9%) infections of COVID-19 and 271 (18.7%) deaths. Conclusions and RelevanceCrowding was associated with higher incidence of COVID-19 infection and mortality. Reducing crowding in nursing homes could prevent future COVID-19 mortality.
