RESUMO
Background: The current pandemic requires hospitals to ensure care not only for the growing number of COVID-19 patients but also regular patients. Hospital resources must be allocated accordingly. Objective: To provide hospitals with a planning model to optimally allocate resources to intensive care units given a certain incidence of COVID-19 cases. Methods: The analysis included 334 cases from four adjacent counties south-west of Munich. From length of stay and type of ward [general ward (NOR), intensive care unit (ICU)] probabilities of case numbers within a hospital at a certain time point were derived. The epidemiological situation was simulated by the effective reproduction number R, the infection rates in mid-August 2020 in the counties, and the German hospitalization rate. Simulation results are compared with real data from 2nd and 3rd wave (September 2020-May 2021). Results: With R = 2, a hospitalization rate of 17%, mitigation measures implemented on day 9 (i.e., 7-day incidence surpassing 50/100,000), the peak occupancy was reached on day 22 (155.1 beds) for the normal ward and on day 25 (44.9 beds) for the intensive care unit. A higher R led to higher occupancy rates. Simulated number of infections and intensive care unit occupancy was concordant in validation with real data obtained from the 2nd and 3rd waves in Germany. Conclusion: Hospitals could expect a peak occupancy of normal ward and intensive care unit within ~5-11 days after infections reached their peak and critical resources could be allocated accordingly. This delay (in particular for the peak of intensive care unit occupancy) might give options for timely preparation of additional intensive care unit resources.
