Developing a Long COVID Phenotype for Postacute COVID-19 in a National Primary Care Sentinel Cohort: Observational Retrospective Database Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Following COVID-19, up to 40% of people have ongoing health problems, referred to as postacute COVID-19 or long COVID (LC). LC varies from a single persisting symptom to a complex multisystem disease. Research has flagged that this condition is underrecorded in primary care records, and seeks to better define its clinical characteristics and management. Phenotypes provide a standard method for case definition and identification from routine data and are usually machine-processable. An LC phenotype can underpin research into this condition. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a phenotype for LC to inform the epidemiology and future research into this condition. We compared clinical symptoms in people with LC before and after their index infection, recorded from March 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021. We also compared people recorded as having acute infection with those with LC who were hospitalized and those who were not. METHODS: We used data from the Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC) of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database. This network was recruited to be nationally representative of the English population. We developed an LC phenotype using our established 3-step ontological method: (1) ontological step (defining the reasoning process underpinning the phenotype, (2) coding step (exploring what clinical terms are available, and (3) logical extract model (testing performance). We created a version of this phenotype using Protégé in the ontology web language for BioPortal and using PhenoFlow. Next, we used the phenotype to compare people with LC (1) with regard to their symptoms in the year prior to acquiring COVID-19 and (2) with people with acute COVID-19. We also compared hospitalized people with LC with those not hospitalized. We compared sociodemographic details, comorbidities, and Office of National Statistics-defined LC symptoms between groups. We used descriptive statistics and logistic regression. RESULTS: The long-COVID phenotype differentiated people hospitalized with LC from people who were not and where no index infection was identified. The PCSC (N=7.4 million) includes 428,479 patients with acute COVID-19 diagnosis confirmed by a laboratory test and 10,772 patients with clinically diagnosed COVID-19. A total of 7471 (1.74%, 95% CI 1.70-1.78) people were coded as having LC, 1009 (13.5%, 95% CI 12.7-14.3) had a hospital admission related to acute COVID-19, and 6462 (86.5%, 95% CI 85.7-87.3) were not hospitalized, of whom 2728 (42.2%) had no COVID-19 index date recorded. In addition, 1009 (13.5%, 95% CI 12.73-14.28) people with LC were hospitalized compared to 17,993 (4.5%, 95% CI 4.48-4.61; P<.001) with uncomplicated COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Our LC phenotype enables the identification of individuals with the condition in routine data sets, facilitating their comparison with unaffected people through retrospective research. This phenotype and study protocol to explore its face validity contributes to a better understanding of LC.

Differences in Clinical Presentation With Long COVID After Community and Hospital Infection and Associations With All-Cause Mortality: English Sentinel Network Database Study.

BACKGROUND: Most studies of long COVID (symptoms of COVID-19 infection beyond 4 weeks) have focused on people hospitalized in their initial illness. Long COVID is thought to be underrecorded in UK primary care electronic records. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine which symptoms people present to primary care after COVID-19 infection and whether presentation differs in people who were not hospitalized, as well as post-long COVID mortality rates. METHODS: We used routine data from the nationally representative primary care sentinel cohort of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (N=7,396,702), applying a predefined long COVID phenotype and grouped by whether the index infection occurred in hospital or in the community. We included COVID-19 infection cases from March 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021. We conducted a before-and-after analysis of long COVID symptoms prespecified by the Office of National Statistics, comparing symptoms presented between 1 and 6 months after the index infection matched with the same months 1 year previously. We conducted logistic regression analysis, quoting odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: In total, 5.63% (416,505/7,396,702) and 1.83% (7623/416,505) of the patients had received a coded diagnosis of COVID-19 infection and diagnosis of, or referral for, long COVID, respectively. People with diagnosis or referral of long COVID had higher odds of presenting the prespecified symptoms after versus before COVID-19 infection (OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.46-2.88, for those with index community infection and OR 2.42, 95% CI 2.03-2.89, for those hospitalized). After an index community infection, patients were more likely to present with nonspecific symptoms (OR 3.44, 95% CI 3.00-3.95; P<.001) compared with after a hospital admission (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.56-2.80; P<.001). Mental health sequelae were more strongly associated with index hospital infections (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.64-2.96) than with index community infections (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.21-1.53; P<.001). People presenting to primary care after hospital infection were more likely to be men (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.25-1.64; P<.001), more socioeconomically deprived (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.24-1.63; P<.001), and with higher multimorbidity scores (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.26-1.57; P<.001) than those presenting after an index community infection. All-cause mortality in people with long COVID was associated with increasing age, male sex (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.34-9.24; P=.01), and higher multimorbidity score (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.34-3.29; P<.001). Vaccination was associated with reduced odds of mortality (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.03-0.35; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low percentage of people recorded as having long COVID after COVID-19 infection reflects either low prevalence or underrecording. The characteristics and comorbidities of those presenting with long COVID after a community infection are different from those hospitalized. This study provides insights into the presentation of long COVID in primary care and implications for workload.

Using Primary Care Data to Report Real-World Pancreatic Cancer Survival and Symptomatology.

Pancreatic cancer is the 10th most common cancer diagnosed; despite recent advances in many areas of oncology, survival remains poor, in part owing to late diagnosis. Whilst primary care data are used widely for epidemiology and pharmacovigilance, they are less used for observing survival. In this study we extracted a pancreatic cancer cohort from a nationally representative English primary care database of electronic health records (EHRs) and reported on their symptom and mortality data. A total of 11, 649 cases were identified within the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Clinical Informatics Digital Hub network. All-cause mortality data was recorded for 4623 (39.69%). Mean age at recording of cancer diagnosis was 71.4 years (SD 12.0 years). 1-year and 5-year survival was 22.06% and 3.27% respectively. Within a multivariate model, age had a significant impact on survival; those diagnosed under the age of 60 had the longest survival, as compared to those age 60 - 79 (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.20 - 1.54, p < 0.001) and 80+ (HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.86 - 2.44, p < 0.01). Symptomatology was examined; at any time point abdominal pain was the most commonly reported symptom present in 5271 cases (45.2%), but within the 12 months preceding diagnosis jaundice was the most common feature, present in 2587 patients (22.2%). Future studies clarifying other contributing factors on survival outcomes and patterns of symptomatology are needed; primary care EHRs provide an opportunity to evaluate real-world cancer patient cohort data.

Diabetic retinopathy in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes mellitus: Prevalence and predictors of progression; a national primary network study.

AIMS: To determine, inreal-world primary care settings, the prevalence of, and risk factors for, retinopathy atType 2 diabetes mellitus diagnosis and report cumulative incidence and progression of retinopathy seven years after diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of people with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetesrecorded bythe Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre(between 2005 and 2009, n=11,399).Outcomes included; retinopathy prevalence atdiabetesdiagnosis (baseline) and cumulative incidence or progression of retinopathy at seven years. Retinopathy prevalence was compared with the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS-1998). Factors influencing retinopathy incidence and progression were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Baseline retinopathy prevalencewas 18% (n=2,048) versus 37% in UKPDS. At seven years, 11.6% (n=237) of those with baseline retinopathyhad progression of retinopathy. In those without baseline retinopathy, 46.4% (n=4,337/9,351) developed retinopathy by seven years. Retinopathy development (OR: 1.05 [95%CI: 1.02-1.07] per mmol/mol increase) and progression (OR: 1.05 [1.04-1.06]) at seven years was associated with higher HbA1catdiabetesdiagnosis. Obesity (OR: 0.88 [0.79-0.98]) and high socioeconomic status (OR: 0.63 [0.53-0.74]) were negatively associated with retinopathy development at seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline retinopathy prevalence has declined since UKPDS. Additionally, HbA1c at diabetes diagnosis remains important for retinopathy development and progression.

International trends in oesophageal cancer survival by histological subtype between 1995 and 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Survival from oesophageal cancer remains poor, even across high-income countries. Ongoing changes in the epidemiology of the disease highlight the need for survival assessments by its two main histological subtypes, adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). METHODS: The ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, a platform for international comparisons of cancer survival, collected cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995 to 2014, followed until 31st December 2015, from cancer registries covering seven participating countries with similar access to healthcare (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival alongside incidence rates were calculated by country, subtype, sex, age group and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: 111 894 cases of AC and 73 408 cases of SCC were included in the analysis. Marked improvements in survival were observed over the 20-year period in each country, particularly for AC, younger age groups and 1 year after diagnosis. Survival was consistently higher for both subtypes in Australia and Ireland followed by Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, the UK and Canada. During 2010 to 2014, survival was higher for AC compared with SCC, with 1-year survival ranging from 46.9% (Canada) to 54.4% (Ireland) for AC and 39.6% (Denmark) to 53.1% (Australia) for SCC. CONCLUSION: Marked improvements in both oesophageal AC and SCC survival suggest advances in treatment. Less marked improvements 3 years after diagnosis, among older age groups and patients with SCC, highlight the need for further advances in early detection and treatment of oesophageal cancer alongside primary prevention to reduce the overall burden from the disease.

Adverse events of interest vary by influenza vaccine type and brand: Sentinel network study of eight seasons (2010-2018).

BACKGROUND: Influenza contributes significantly to the burden of disease worldwide; the United Kingdom has a policy of vaccination across all ages. Influenza vaccinations are known to be associated with common minor adverse events of interest (AEIs). The European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommends ongoing surveillance of AEIs following influenza vaccination to monitor common and detect infrequent but important AEIs. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using computerised medical record data from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network database 2010-2018 (N = 848,375). We extracted data about vaccine exposure (n = 3,121,334) and consultations for AEIs within seven days of receiving vaccinations specified by the EMA (1,488,870 consultations by 430,029 unique individuals). We used a self-case series design which employs a likelihood estimation method using conditioning of observed adverse events. Such a model assumes non-homogenous Poisson intensity processes for each exposure period and age interval. We compared AEI between QIV and TIV reporting relative incidence (RI) of AEIs. A RI < 1 signified lower AEI rate compared to TIV. RESULTS: QIV was associated with a RI of AEIs of 1.14 (95%CI, 1.10-1.18, p < 0.01), though the number of years exposure was limited. By way of contrast, LAIV had a lower rate 0.60 (95%CI 0.63-0.68, p < 0.001). Cellular manufacture was also associated with a lower rate 0.78 (95%CI 0.61-0.99, p = 0.04). AEIs varied by season: Rash and musculoskeletal conditions are particularly pronounced in the 2014/15 season and respiratory conditions in 2016/17. In an analysis of all seasons, we found an elevated relative incidence of AEIs of 1.78 (95%CI, 1.62-1.95) in pregnant women and 1.76 (95%CI, 1.56 - 1.99) in children under 5 years. CONCLUSION: Routine sentinel network data can be used to contrast AEIs between vaccine types and may provide a consistent method of observation of vaccine benefit-risk over time.

Is 3D faster and safer than 4K laparoscopic cholecystectomy? A randomised-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic surgery has well-established benefits for patients; however, laparoscopic procedures have a long and difficult learning curve, in large part due to the lack of stereoscopic depth perception. Developments in high-definition and stereoscopic imaging have attempted to overcome this. Three-dimensional high-definition (3D HD) systems are thought to improve operating times compared to two-dimensional high-definition systems. However their performance against new, ultra-high-definition ('4K') systems is not known. METHODS: Patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy were randomised to 3D HD or 4K laparoscopy. Operative videos were recorded, and the time from gallbladder exposure to separation from the liver (minus on table cholangiogram) was calculated. Blinded video assessment was performed to calculate intraoperative error scores. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty patients were randomised, of which 109 were analysed (3D HD n = 54; 4K n = 55). No reduction in operative time was detected with 3D HD compared to 4K laparoscopy (median [IQR]; 23.41 min [17.00-37.98] vs 20.90 min [17.67-33.03]; p = 0.91); nor was there any decrease observed in error scores (60 [56-62] vs 58 [56-60]; p = 0.27), complications or reattendance. Stone spillage occurred more frequently with 3D HD, but there were no other differences in individual error rates. Gallbladder grade and operating surgeon had significant effects on time to complete the operation. Gallbladder grade also had a significant effect on the error score. CONCLUSIONS: A 3D HD laparoscopic system did not reduce operative time or error scores during laparoscopic cholecystectomy compared with a new 4K imaging system.

Laparoscopic versus open subtotal gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma of the stomach in a Western population: peri-operative and 5-year oncological outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study compares the peri-operative and long-term oncological outcomes for laparoscopic subtotal gastrectomy (LSG) versus open subtotal gastrectomy (OSG) for adenocarcinoma of the stomach in a Western population. METHODS: A retrospective, intention-to-treat analysis study was conducted for consecutive patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent for adenocarcinoma of the stomach between November 2006 and October 2016. Univariate analysis was used to compare peri-operative outcomes between LSG and OSG. Logistic regression with bootstrapping validation was used to identify independent risk factors for predicting 2-year overall survival. RESULTS: The final analysis included 79 patients. When comparing LSG (n = 30) to OSG (n = 49), there was no difference in the number of resected lymph nodes (36 (IQR 24.3-44) vs. 42 (IQR 28-59), p = 0.165), a reduction in intra-operative blood loss (150 ml (IQR 100-250) vs. 553 ml (IQR 338-1075), p < 0.001) and an increase incidence of post-operative bleeding (3 patients vs. 0, p = 0.024), respectively. Five-year overall survival for LSG (n = 22) versus OSG (n = 20) was 63.6% and 50% (p = 0.372), respectively. The number of positive lymph nodes [OR 0.64 (CI 0.47-0.88), p = 0.006] was the only significant independent risk factor for 2-year overall survival. Pre-operative ASA grading and operative approach did not influence survival outcomes at 2 years. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that LSG is comparable to OSG in Western patients with respect to oncological quality and peri-operative morbidity. Two-year overall survival is predicted by the number of positive lymph nodes and not the operative access employed for resection.

The impact of therapy on the risk of asthma in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are limited data about the risk of asthma in people with diabetes. We examined the incidence of asthma in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) compared to controls, and the association with metformin, sulphonylureas and insulin therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a representative UK primary care database (N = 894 646 adults). We used 1:1 propensity score matching (age, gender, socio-economic deprivation, body mass index and smoking status) to match 29 217 pairs of T2DM cases and controls. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to compare the incidence of asthma in both groups over 8 years of follow-up. In those with T2DM, we used Cox proportional hazard regression to assess for any impact of antidiabetic medications on asthma incidence. RESULTS: Individuals with T2DM were less likely to develop asthma than matched controls (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93). Insulin increased the risk of incident asthma (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.01-1.56), whilst metformin and sulphonylureas were associated with reduced risk (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93 and HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.97, respectively). There was no association with diabetes duration, complications or glycaemic control. CONCLUSIONS: T2DM may have a protective effect against asthma development. Insulin use was associated with an increased risk of asthma, while metformin and sulphonylureas reduced the risk in those with T2DM.

Type 2 diabetes: A protective factor for COPD?

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are common comorbidities. COPD is a known risk factor for incident T2DM, however few studies have examined the relationship in reverse. The primary aim of this study was to compare the incidence of COPD in people with and without T2DM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study using a long-established English general practice network database (n=894,646). We matched 29,217 cases of T2DM with controls, adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, BMI and social deprivation, to achieve 1:1 propensity matching and compared the rate of incident COPD over eight years of follow-up. We performed a secondary analysis to investigate the effect of insulin, metformin and sulphonylureas on COPD incidence. RESULTS: People with T2DM had a reduced risk of COPD compared to matched controls over the follow-up period (HR 0.89, 95%CI 0.79-0.93). 48.5% of those with T2DM were ex-smokers compared with 27.3% of those without T2DM. Active smoking rates were 20.4% and 23.7% respectively. Insulin, metformin and sulphonylureas were not associated with incident COPD. CONCLUSIONS: People with T2DM are less likely to be diagnosed with COPD than matched controls. This may be due to positive lifestyle changes, such as smoking cessation in those with T2DM.

Ischaemic stroke, haemorrhage, and mortality in older patients with chronic kidney disease newly started on anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation: a population based study from UK primary care.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between anticoagulation, ischaemic stroke, gastrointestinal and cerebral haemorrhage, and all cause mortality in older people with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease. DESIGN: Propensity matched, population based, retrospective cohort analysis from January 2006 through December 2016. SETTING: The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database population of almost 2.73 million patients from 110 general practices across England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 65 years and over with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <50 mL/min/1.73m2, calculated using the chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration creatinine equation. Patients with a previous diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or receiving anticoagulation in the preceding 120 days were excluded, as were patients requiring dialysis and recipients of renal transplants. INTERVENTION: Receipt of an anticoagulant prescription within 60 days of atrial fibrillation diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ischaemic stroke, cerebral or gastrointestinal haemorrhage, and all cause mortality. RESULTS: 6977 patients with chronic kidney disease and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were identified, of whom 2434 were on anticoagulants within 60 days of diagnosis and 4543 were not. 2434 pairs were matched using propensity scores by exposure to anticoagulant or none and followed for a median of 506 days. The crude rates for ischaemic stroke and haemorrhage were 4.6 and 1.2 after taking anticoagulants and 1.5 and 0.4 in patients who were not taking anticoagulant per 100 person years, respectively. The hazard ratios for ischaemic stroke, haemorrhage, and all cause mortality for those on anticoagulants were 2.60 (95% confidence interval 2.00 to 3.38), 2.42 (1.44 to 4.05), and 0.82 (0.74 to 0.91) compared with those who received no anticoagulation. CONCLUSION: Giving anticoagulants to older people with concomitant atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease was associated with an increased rate of ischaemic stroke and haemorrhage but a paradoxical lowered rate of all cause mortality. Careful consideration should be given before starting anticoagulants in older people with chronic kidney disease who develop atrial fibrillation. There remains an urgent need for adequately powered randomised trials in this population to explore these findings and to provide clarity on correct clinical management.

Incidence, Demographics, and Clinical Characteristics of Diabetes of the Exocrine Pancreas (Type 3c): A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to describe the incidence of diabetes following pancreatic disease, assess how these patients are classified by clinicians, and compare clinical characteristics with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Primary care records in England (n = 2,360,631) were searched for incident cases of adult-onset diabetes between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2016. We examined demographics, diabetes classification, glycemic control, and insulin use in those with and without pancreatic disease (subcategorized into acute pancreatitis or chronic pancreatic disease) before diabetes diagnosis. Regression analysis was used to control for baseline potential risk factors for poor glycemic control (HbA1c ≥7% [53 mmol/mol]) and insulin requirement. RESULTS: We identified 31,789 new diagnoses of adult-onset diabetes. Diabetes following pancreatic disease (2.59 [95% CI 2.38-2.81] per 100,000 person-years) was more common than type 1 diabetes (1.64 [1.47-1.82]; P < 0.001). The 559 cases of diabetes following pancreatic disease were mostly classified by clinicians as type 2 diabetes (87.8%) and uncommonly as diabetes of the exocrine pancreas (2.7%). Diabetes following pancreatic disease was diagnosed at a median age of 59 years and BMI of 29.2 kg/m2. Diabetes following pancreatic disease was associated with poor glycemic control (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7 [1.3-2.2]; P < 0.001) compared with type 2 diabetes. Insulin use within 5 years was 4.1% (3.8-4.4) with type 2 diabetes, 20.9% (14.6-28.9) with diabetes following acute pancreatitis, and 45.8% (34.2-57.9) with diabetes following chronic pancreatic disease. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes of the exocrine pancreas is frequently labeled type 2 diabetes but has worse glycemic control and a markedly greater requirement for insulin.

Barrett's oesophagus: Current controversies.

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing in Western countries. This tumour frequently presents late in its course with metastatic disease and has a very poor prognosis. Barrett's oesophagus is an acquired condition whereby the native squamous mucosa of the lower oesophagus is replaced by columnar epithelium following prolonged gastro-oesophageal reflux and is the recognised precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. There are multiple national and society guidelines regarding screening, surveillance and management of Barrett's oesophagus, however all are limited regarding a clear evidence base for a well-demonstrated benefit and cost-effectiveness of surveillance, and robust risk stratification for patients to best use resources. Currently the accepted risk factors upon which surveillance intervals and interventions are based are Barrett's segment length and histological interpretation of the systematic biopsies. Further patient risk factors including other demographic features, smoking, gender, obesity, ethnicity, patient age, biomarkers and endoscopic adjuncts remain under consideration and are discussed in full. Recent evidence has been published to support earlier endoscopic intervention by means of ablation of the metaplastic Barrett's segment when the earliest signs of dysplasia are detected. Further work should concentrate on establishing better risk stratification and primary and secondary preventative strategies to reduce the risk of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus.

Tension enterothorax and hepatothorax due to a diaphragmatic hernia: successful emergency repair of a life-threatening condition.

A 70-year-old female patient presented with acute severe respiratory distress at a district general hospital. Medical history included type 2 diabetes, recurrent pulmonary embolisms and pre-existing diaphragmatic hernia containing part of the liver. Despite initial treatment with steroid inhalers, her clinical picture rapidly deteriorated requiring emergency intubation and positive pressure ventilation. Imaging investigations revealed tension enterothorax and hepatothorax with tracheal deviation. The patient was transferred and underwent an emergency laparotomy at the Regional Oesophagogastric Unit. A large diaphragmatic hernia (central tendon defect) which contained the duodenum, porta hepatis, right lobe of liver, gallbladder and right colon was reduced and successfully repaired. Her postoperative course was uneventful with no signs of recurrence at 2 months follow-up.This case describes an extremely rare and life-threatening condition of tension enterothorax and hepatothorax, which should be considered in the differential diagnosis of acute respiratory distress with tracheal deviation.

Toward More Efficient Surveillance of Barrett's Esophagus: Identification and Exclusion of Patients at Low Risk of Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus (BE) is probably not cost-effective. A sub-population with BE at increased risk of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) who could be targeted for cost-effective surveillance was sought. METHODS: The outcome for BE surveillance from 2003 to 2012 in a structured program was reviewed. Incidence rates and incidence rate ratios for developing HGD or EAC were calculated. Risk stratification identified individuals who could be considered for exclusion from surveillance. A health-state transition Markov cohort model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of focusing on higher-risk individuals. RESULTS: During 2067 person-years of follow-up of 640 patients, 17 individuals progressed to HGD or EAC (annual IR 0.8%). Individuals with columnar-lined esophagus (CLE) ≥2 cm had an annual IR of 1.2% and >8-fold increased relative risk of HGD or EAC, compared to CLE <2 cm [IR-0.14% (IRR 8.6, 95% CIs 4.5-12.8)]. Limiting the surveillance cohort after the first endoscopy to individuals with CLE ≥2 cm, or dysplasia, followed by a further restriction after the second endoscopy-exclusion of patients without intestinal metaplasia-removed 296 (46%) patients, and 767 (37%) person-years from surveillance. Limiting surveillance to the remaining individuals reduced the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from US$60,858 to US$33,807 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Further restrictions were tested but failed to improve cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Based on stratification of risk, the number of patients requiring surveillance can be reduced by at least a third. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$50,000 per QALY, surveillance of higher-risk individuals becomes cost-effective.

Bariatric Surgery in Obese Women of Reproductive Age Improves Conditions That Underlie Fertility and Pregnancy Outcomes: Retrospective Cohort Study of UK National Bariatric Surgery Registry (NBSR).

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study are the following: to describe the female population of reproductive age having bariatric surgery in the UK, to assess the age and ethnicity of women accessing surgery, and to assess the effect of bariatric surgery on factors that underlie fertility and pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: Demographic details, comorbidities, and operative type of women aged 18-45 years were extracted from the National Bariatric Surgery Registry (NBSR). A comparison was made with non-operative cases (aged 18-45 and BMI ≥40 kg/m2) from the Health Survey for England (HSE, 2007-2013). Analyses were performed using "R" software. RESULTS: Data were extracted on 15,222 women from NBSR and 1073 from HSE. Women aged 18-45 comprised 53 % of operations. Non-Caucasians were under-represented in NBSR compared to HSE (10 vs 16 % respectively, p < 0.0001). The NBSR group was older than the HSE group-median 38 (IQR 32-42) vs 36 (IQR 30-41) years (Wilcoxon test p < 0.0001). Almost one third of women in NBSR had menstrual dysfunction at baseline (33.0 %). BMI fell in the first year postoperatively from 48.2 ± 8.3 to 37.4 ± 7.5 kg/m2 (t test, p < 0.001). From NBSR, in the postoperative period, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes fell by 54 %, polycystic ovarian syndrome by 15 %, and any menstrual dysfunction by 12 %. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of all bariatric procedures are carried out on women of reproductive age. More work is required to provide prompt and equal access across ethnic groups. At least one in three women suffers from menstrual dysfunction at baseline. Bariatric surgery improves factors that underlie fertility and pregnancy outcomes. A prospective study is required to verify these effects.

Effect of antireflux surgery for Barrett's esophagus: long-term results.

INTRODUCTION: Barrett's esophagus is a metaplastic change in the lower esophagus that results from long-standing gastro-esophageal reflux disease, associated with a risk of development of esophageal adenocarcinoma. This review examines the role of antireflux surgery in the management of Barrett's esophagus. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A systematic review of the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases (1974-2016) was undertaken to identify studies with long-term follow-up examining the role of antireflux surgery in Barrett's esophagus. Outcomes examined were: number of subjects, follow-up, rates of progression, regression and adenocarcinoma. Symptomatic outcomes, surgical morbidity and rates of surgical failure were included when available. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: A total of 2403 articles were identified of which 9 met the inclusion criteria for this study using the PRISMA methodology. Citation tracking identified 3 further studies for inclusion. There were 962 patients included in this study, 731 who were found to have completed endoscopic follow up with a total of 3736 years of follow up. Annual incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was found to be 0.18%. Thirty-five percent of patients (260 patients) had regression. Progression was seen in 8% (57 patients) postoperatively. There was no mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to recommend surgery over medical therapy to reduce cancer risk in Barrett's esophagus. Regression of features associated with cancer risk was more common after surgery than medical therapy. Surgery has been shown to improve patients' gastroesophageal reflux disease-specific quality of life. Long-term, antireflux surgery represents a cost effective method to manage Barrett's Esophagus with continued endoscopic surveillance.

Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett's esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance.

AIM: To clarify risk based upon segment length, diagnostic histological findings, patient age and year of surveillance, duration of surveillance and gender. METHODS: Patients registered with the United Kingdom Barrett's Oesophagus Registry from 9 United Kingdom centers were included. The outcome measures were (1) development of all grades of dysplasia; (2) development of high-grade of dysplasia or adenocarcinoma; and (3) development of adenocarcinoma. Prevalent cases and subjects with < 1 year of follow-up were excluded. The covariates examined were segment length, previous biopsy findings, age at surveillance, duration of surveillance, year of surveillance and gender. RESULTS: One thousand and one hundred thirty six patients were included (total 6474 patient-years). Fifty-four patients developed adenocarcinoma (0.83% per annum), 70 developed high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma (1.1% per annum) and 190 developed any grade of dysplasia (3.5% per annum). High grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma increased with age and duration of surveillance. The risk of low-grade dysplasia development was not dependent on age at surveillance. Segment length and previous biopsy findings were also significant factors for development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSION: The risk of development of low-grade dysplasia is independent of age at surveillance, but high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma were more commonly found at older age. Segment length and previous biopsy findings are also markers of risk. This study did not demonstrate stabilisation of the metaplastic segment with prolonged surveillance.

The socioeconomic profile of a Barrett's oesophagus cohort assessed by the 2010 Index of Multiple Deprivation.

BACKGROUND: Several reports have described the relationship between socioeconomic status and oesophageal adenocarcinoma but only one with its precursor condition, Barrett's oesophagus. We therefore investigated such an association. PATIENTS: The majority (88%) of patients diagnosed with Barrett's at Rotherham District General Hospital between 28 April 1978 and 31 August 2012 consented to inclusion in the UK Barrett's Oesophagus Registry. Those residing within Rotherham form the basis of this study. METHODS: We assessed socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 scores which can be assigned to every English postcode. The scores for the whole of England were divided into five equal groups; those of the 6257 postcodes within Rotherham (including those of Barrett's patients) were compared against the national quintile relevant to their score. We examined the ratio of observed against expected numbers of Barrett's in each quintile before and since 2001, the median year of diagnosis. RESULTS: The study group comprised 1076 patients with Barrett's oesophagus. Before 2001 their distribution across the deprivation quintiles was similar to that expected. Since then it has changed significantly, with 37% more Barrett's patients than expected among the two least deprived quintiles, but 11% fewer than expected in the larger population comprising the two most deprived quintiles (P=0.0001). There was no significant difference in the distribution of sex (P=0.27), nor the mean age at diagnosis between the two time periods (P=0.92). CONCLUSION: Since 2001, there has been a major change in the distribution of Barrett's in relation to socioeconomic status, measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation.