Pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular dysfunction in heart failure: prognosis and 15-year prospective longitudinal trajectories in survivors.

AIMS: Systolic pulmonary artery pressure (SPAP), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and TAPSE/SPAP ratio trajectories are not fully characterized in chronic heart failure (HF). We assessed very long-term longitudinal SPAP, TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP trajectories in HF patients, and their dynamic changes in outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective, consecutive, observational registry of real-life HF patients, performing echocardiography studies at baseline and according to a prospectively structured schedule after 1 year, and then every 2 years, up to 15 years. Pulmonary hypertension (PH) was defined as SPAP ≥40 mmHg; right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) was defined at TAPSE ≤16 mm; and TAPSE/SPAP ratio was dichotomized at 0.36 mm/mmHg. The clinical endpoints were all-cause death, the composite endpoint of mortality or HF hospitalization and the number of recurrent HF hospitalizations. The study cohort included 1557 patients. Long-term SPAP trajectory Loess curves were U-shaped with a nadir at 7 years. TAPSE Loess curves showed a marked rise during the first year, with stabilization thereafter. TAPSE/SPAP ratio Loess splines were similar to the later with a smooth decline towards the end. Patients who died had higher SPAP, lower TAPSE and lower TAPSE/SPAP ratio in the preceding period than survivors. Baseline PH and/or RVD were independently associated with mortality and HF-related hospitalizations, and the persistence of one or both entities at 1 year conferred a worse long-term prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term trajectories for SPAP, TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP ratio are reported in patients with chronic HF. An increasing SPAP and declining TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP ratio in the preceding period is associated with higher mortality.

Long-term LVEF trajectories in patients with type 2 diabetes and heart failure: diabetic cardiomyopathy may underlie functional decline.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) trajectories and functional recovery with current heart failure (HF) management is increasingly recognized. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) leads to a worse prognosis in HF patients. However, it is unknown whether T2D interferes with LVEF trajectories. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess very long-term (up to 15 years) LVEF trajectories in patients with and without T2D and underlying HF. METHODS: Ambulatory patients admitted to a multidisciplinary HF clinic were prospectively evaluated by scheduled two-dimensional echocardiography at baseline, 1 year, and then every 2 years afterwards, up to 15 years. Statistical analyses of LVEF change with time were performed using the linear mixed effects (LME) models, and locally weighted error sum of squares (Loess) curves were plotted. RESULTS: Of the 1921 patients, 461 diabetic and 699 non-diabetic patients with LVEF < 50% were included in the study. The mean number of echocardiography measurements performed in diabetic patients was 3.3 ± 1.6. Early LVEF recovery was similar in diabetic and non-diabetic patients, but Loess curves showed a more pronounced inverted U shape in diabetics with a more pronounced decline after 9 years. LME analysis showed a statistical interaction between T2D and LVEF trajectory over time (p = 0.009), which was statistically significant in patients with ischemic etiologies (p < 0.001). Other variables that showed an interaction between LVEF trajectories and T2D were male sex (p = 0.04) and HF duration (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: LVEF trajectories in T2D patients with depressed systolic function showed a pronounced inverted U shape with a marked decline after 9 years. Diabetic cardiomyopathy may underlie the functional decline observed.

Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Infrequently Evolves Toward a Reduced Phenotype in Long-Term Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Long-term trajectories of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in heart failure (HF) patients with preserved EF (HFpEF) remain unclear. Our objective was to assess long-term longitudinal trajectories in consecutive HFpEF patients and the prognostic impact of LVEF dynamic changes over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive ambulatory HFpEF patients admitted to a multidisciplinary HF Unit were prospectively evaluated by 2-dimensional echocardiography at baseline and at 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 years of follow-up. Exclusion criteria were patients having a previous known LVEF <50%, patients undergoing only 1 echocardiogram study, and those with a diagnosis of dilated, noncompaction, alcoholic, or toxic cardiomyopathy. One hundred twenty-six patients (age, 71±13 years; 63% women) were included. The main pathogeneses were valvular disease (36%) and hypertension (28%). Atrial fibrillation was present in 67 patients (53%). The mean number of echocardiographies performed was 3±1.2 per patient. Locally weighted error sum of squares curves showed a smooth decrease of LVEF during the 11-year follow-up that was statistically significant in linear mixed-effects modeling ( P=0.01). Ischemic patients showed a higher decrease than nonischemics. The great majority (88.9%) of patients remained in the HFpEF category during follow-up; 9.5% evolved toward HF with midrange LVEF, and only 1.6% dropped to HF with reduced LVEF. No significant relationship was found between LVEF dynamics in the immediate preceding period and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: LVEF remained ≥50% in the majority of patients with HFpEF for ≤11 years. Only 1.6% of patients evolved to HF with reduced LVEF. Dynamic LVEF changes were not associated with mortality.

Dynamic Trajectories of Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Long-term trajectories of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in heart failure (HF) are incompletely characterized. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine LVEF trajectories in HF with reduced LVEF (<40%) and mid-range LVEF (40% to 49%) and the prognostic impact of LVEF dynamic changes over 15-year follow-up. METHODS: In this prospective, consecutive, observational registry of real-life HF outpatients, the authors performed 2-dimensional echocardiography at baseline and on a structured schedule after 1 year and then every 2 years up to 15 years. RESULTS: The mean number of LVEF measurements in the 1,160 included patients was 3.6 ± 1.7. As a whole, Loess curves of long-term LVEF trajectories showed an inverted U shape with a marked rise in LVEF during the first year, maintained up to a decade, and a slow LVEF decline thereafter (p for trajectory <0.001). This pattern was more pronounced in HF of nonischemic origin and in women. Patients with new-onset HF (≤12 months) had a higher early increase in LVEF, whereas patients with ischemic HF showed a lower LVEF increase at 1 year; both groups had a relative plateau thereafter. Patients with HF with mid-range LVEF had less of an increase (3 ± 9%) than those with HF with reduced LVEF (9 ± 12%) during the first year (p < 0.001), but the groups overlapped after 15 years. Patients who died had lower final LVEF and worse LVEF dynamics in the immediately preceding period than survivors. CONCLUSIONS: LVEF trajectories vary in HF depending on a number of disease modifiers, but an inverted U-shaped pattern with lower LVEF at both ends of the distribution emerged. A declining LVEF in the preceding period was associated with higher mortality.

Next generation sequencing to dissect the genetic architecture of KNG1 and F11 loci using factor XI levels as an intermediate phenotype of thrombosis.

Venous thromboembolism is a complex disease with a high heritability. There are significant associations among Factor XI (FXI) levels and SNPs in the KNG1 and F11 loci. Our aim was to identify the genetic variation of KNG1 and F11 that might account for the variability of FXI levels. The KNG1 and F11 loci were sequenced completely in 110 unrelated individuals from the GAIT-2 (Genetic Analysis of Idiopathic Thrombophilia 2) Project using Next Generation Sequencing on an Illumina MiSeq. The GAIT-2 Project is a study of 935 individuals in 35 extended Spanish families selected through a proband with idiopathic thrombophilia. Among the 110 individuals, a subset of 40 individuals was chosen as a discovery sample for identifying variants. A total of 762 genetic variants were detected. Several significant associations were established among common variants and low-frequency variants sets in KNG1 and F11 with FXI levels using the PLINK and SKAT packages. Among these associations, those of rs710446 and five low-frequency variant sets in KNG1 with FXI level variation were significant after multiple testing correction and permutation. Also, two putative pathogenic mutations related to high and low FXI levels were identified by data filtering and in silico predictions. This study of KNG1 and F11 loci should help to understand the connection between genotypic variation and variation in FXI levels. The functional genetic variants should be useful as markers of thromboembolic risk.

Early Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Using Null Longitudinal Model-Based Classifiers.

Incipient Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a slow onset of clinical symptoms, with pathological brain changes starting several years earlier. Consequently, it is necessary to first understand and differentiate age-related changes in brain regions in the absence of disease, and then to support early and accurate AD diagnosis. However, there is poor understanding of the initial stage of AD; seemingly healthy elderly brains lose matter in regions related to AD, but similar changes can also be found in non-demented subjects having mild cognitive impairment (MCI). By using a Linear Mixed Effects approach, we modelled the change of 166 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)-based biomarkers available at a 5-year follow up on healthy elderly control (HC, n = 46) subjects. We hypothesized that, by identifying their significant variant (vr) and quasi-variant (qvr) brain regions over time, it would be possible to obtain an age-based null model, which would characterize their normal atrophy and growth patterns as well as the correlation between these two regions. By using the null model on those subjects who had been clinically diagnosed as HC (n = 161), MCI (n = 209) and AD (n = 331), normal age-related changes were estimated and deviation scores (residuals) from the observed MRI-based biomarkers were computed. Subject classification, as well as the early prediction of conversion to MCI and AD, were addressed through residual-based Support Vector Machines (SVM) modelling. We found reductions in most cortical volumes and thicknesses (with evident gender differences) as well as in sub-cortical regions, including greater atrophy in the hippocampus. The average accuracies (ACC) recorded for men and women were: AD-HC: 94.11%, MCI-HC: 83.77% and MCI converted to AD (cAD)-MCI non-converter (sMCI): 76.72%. Likewise, as compared to standard clinical diagnosis methods, SVM classifiers predicted the conversion of cAD to be 1.9 years earlier for females (ACC:72.5%) and 1.4 years earlier for males (ACC:69.0%).