Impact of climate change and management strategies on water and salt balance of the polders and islands in the Ganges delta.

Enhancing crop production, particularly by growing a crop in the typically-fallow dry season is a key strategy for alleviating poverty in the Ganges delta region. We used a polder water and salt balance model to examine the impact of several crop management, salt management and climate change scenarios on salinity and crop evapotranspiration at Dacope and Amtali in Bangladesh and Gosaba in India. A key (and unsurprising) finding is that salt management is very important, particularly at the two drier sites, Dacope and Gosaba. Good salt management lowers salinity in the shallow groundwater, soil and water storage ponds, and leads to more irrigation. Climate change is projected to alter rainfall, and this in turn leads to modelled increases or decreases in runoff from the polders, and thence affect salt concentrations in the soil and ponds and canals. Thus, the main impacts of climate change are through the indirect impacts on salt concentrations, rather than the direct impacts of the amount of water supplied as rainfall. Management practices to remove salt from polders are therefore likely to be effective in combatting the impacts of projected climate change particularly at Dacope and Gosaba.

Describing the physiological responses of different rice genotypes to salt stress using sigmoid and piecewise linear functions.

Rice is the staple food for almost half of the world population. In South and South East Asia, about 40% of rice production is from deltaic regions that are vulnerable to salt stress. A quantitative approach was developed for characterizing genotypic variability in biomass production, leaf transpiration rate and leaf net photosynthesis responses to salinity during the vegetative stage, with the aim of developing efficient screening protocols to accelerate breeding varieties adapted to salt-affected areas. Three varieties were evaluated in pots under greenhouse conditions and in the field, with average soil salinity ranging from 2 to 12 dS m-1. Plant biomass, net photosynthesis rate, leaf transpiration rate and leaf conductance were measured at regular intervals. Crop responses were fitted using a logistic function with three parameters: 1) maximum rate under control conditions (Ymax), 2) salinity level for 50% of reduction (b), and 3) rate of reduction (a). Variation in the three parameters correlated significantly with variation in plant biomass production under increasing salinity. Salt stress levels that caused 50% reduction in net leaf photosynthesis and transpiration rates were higher in the tolerant genotype BRRI Dhan47 (16.5 dS m-1 and 14.3 dS m-1, respectively) than the sensitive genotype IR29 (11.1 dS m-1 and 6.8 dS m-1). In BRRI Dhan47, the threshold beyond which growth was significantly reduced was above 5 dS m-1 and the rate of growth reduction beyond this threshold was as low as 4% per unit increase in salinity. This quantitative approach to screening for salinity tolerance in rice offers a means to better understand rice growth under salt stress and, using simulation modelling, can provide an improved tool for varietal characterization.

Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: an overview on concepts and performance of models.

Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multidisciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding of N dynamics in flooded soil systems, the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the modelling concepts and performance of 14 models developed to simulate N dynamics in flooded soil systems. This overview provides breadth of knowledge on the models, and, therefore, is valuable as a first step in the selection of an appropriate model for a specific application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Varietal improvement options for higher rice productivity in salt affected areas using crop modelling.

The rice model ORYZA v3 has been recently improved to account for salt stress effect on rice crop growth and yield. This paper details subsequent studies using the improved model to explore opportunities for improving salinity tolerance in rice. The objective was to identify combinations of plant traits influencing rice responses to salinity and to quantify yield gains by improving these traits. The ORYZA v3 model was calibrated and validated with field experimental data collected between 2012 and 2014 in Satkhira, Bangladesh and Infanta, Quezon, Philippines, then used for simulations scenario considering virtual varieties possessing different combinations of crop model parameter values related to crop salinity response and the soil salinity dynamic observed at Satkhira site. Simulation results showed that (i) short duration varieties could escape end of season increase in salinity, while long duration varieties could benefit from an irrigated desalinization period occurring during the later stages of crop growth in the Satkhira situation; (ii) combining short duration growth with salt tolerance (bTR and bPN) above 12 dS m-1 and a resilience trait (aSalt) of 0.11 in a variety, allows maintenance of 65-70% of rice yield under increasing salinity levels of up to 16 dS m-1; and (iii) increasing the value of the tolerance parameter b by 1% results in 0.3-0.4% increase in yield. These results are relevant for defining directions to increase rice productivity in saline environments, based on improvements in phenology and quantifiable salt tolerance traits.

Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.

The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.

Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions.

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2 ]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2 ] and temperature.