Unravelling the effect of New Year's Eve celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Public holidays have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence surges, although a firm link remains to be established. This association is sometimes attributed to events where transmissions occur at a disproportionately high rate, known as superspreading events. Here, we describe a sudden surge in new cases with the Omicron BA.1 strain amongst higher education students in Belgium. Contact tracers classed most of these cases as likely or possibly infected on New Year's Eve, indicating a direct trigger by New Year celebrations. Using a combination of contact tracing and phylogenetic data, we show the limited role of superspreading events in this surge. Finally, the numerous simultaneous transmissions allowed a unique opportunity to determine the distribution of incubation periods of the Omicron strain. Overall, our results indicate that, even under social restrictions, a surge in transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 can occur when holiday celebrations result in small social gatherings attended simultaneously and communitywide.

Investigation of an international water polo tournament in Czechia as a potential source for early introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant into Belgium, Switzerland and Germany, November 2021.

BackgroundThe earliest recognised infections by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (Pango lineage B.1.1.529) in Belgium and Switzerland suggested a connection to an international water polo tournament, held 12-14 November 2021 in Brno, Czechia.AimTo study the arrival and subsequent spread of the Omicron variant in Belgium and Switzerland, and understand the overall importance of this international sporting event on the number of infections in the two countries.MethodsWe performed intensive forward and backward contact tracing in both countries, supplemented by phylogenetic investigations using virus sequences of the suspected infection chain archived in public databases.ResultsThrough contact tracing, we identified two and one infected athletes of the Belgian and Swiss water polo teams, respectively, and subsequently also three athletes from Germany. In Belgium and Switzerland, four and three secondary infections, and three and one confirmed tertiary infections were identified. Phylogenetic investigation demonstrated that this sporting event played a role as the source of infection, but without a direct link with infections from South Africa and not as a superspreading event; the virus was found to already be circulating at that time in the countries involved.ConclusionThe SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant started to circulate in Europe several weeks before its identification in South Africa on 24 November 2021. Accordingly, it can be assumed that travel restrictions are usually implemented too late to prevent the spread of newly detected SARS-CoV-2 variants to other regions. Phylogenetic analysis may modify the perception of an apparently clear result of intensive contact tracing.

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks.

To complement labour-intensive conventional contact tracing, digital proximity tracing was implemented widely during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the privacy-centred design of the dominant Google-Apple exposure notification framework has hindered assessment of its effectiveness. Between October 2021 and January 2022, we systematically collected app use and notification receipt data within a test and trace programme targeting around 50,000 university students in Leuven, Belgium. Due to low success rates in each studied step of the digital notification cascade, only 4.3% of exposed contacts (CI: 2.8-6.1%) received such notifications, resulting in 10 times more cases detected through conventional contact tracing. Moreover, the infection risk of digitally traced contacts (5.0%; CI: 3.0-7.7%) was lower than that of conventionally traced non-app users (9.8%; CI: 8.8-10.7%; p = 0.002). Contrary to common perception as near instantaneous, there was a 1.2-day delay (CI: 0.6-2.2) between case PCR result and digital contact notification. These results highlight major limitations of a digital proximity tracing system based on the dominant framework.

Indoor air surveillance and factors associated with respiratory pathogen detection in community settings in Belgium.

Currently, the real-life impact of indoor climate, human behaviour, ventilation and air filtration on respiratory pathogen detection and concentration are poorly understood. This hinders the interpretability of bioaerosol quantification in indoor air to surveil respiratory pathogens and transmission risk. We tested 341 indoor air samples from 21 community settings in Belgium for 29 respiratory pathogens using qPCR. On average, 3.9 pathogens were positive per sample and 85.3% of samples tested positive for at least one. Pathogen detection and concentration varied significantly by pathogen, month, and age group in generalised linear (mixed) models and generalised estimating equations. High CO2 and low natural ventilation were independent risk factors for detection. The odds ratio for detection was 1.09 (95% CI 1.03-1.15) per 100 parts per million (ppm) increase in CO2, and 0.88 (95% CI 0.80-0.97) per stepwise increase in natural ventilation (on a Likert scale). CO2 concentration and portable air filtration were independently associated with pathogen concentration. Each 100ppm increase in CO2 was associated with a qPCR Ct value decrease of 0.08 (95% CI -0.12 to -0.04), and portable air filtration with a 0.58 (95% CI 0.25-0.91) increase. The effects of occupancy, sampling duration, mask wearing, vocalisation, temperature, humidity and mechanical ventilation were not significant. Our results support the importance of ventilation and air filtration to reduce transmission.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in student residences: a case-ascertained study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the overall secondary attack rates (SAR) of COVID-19 in student residences and to identify risk factors for higher transmission. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed the SAR in living units of student residences which were screened in Leuven (Belgium) following the detection of a COVID-19 case. Students were followed up in the framework of a routine testing and tracing follow-up system. We considered residence outbreaks followed up between October 30th 2020 and May 25th 2021. We used generalized estimating equations (GEE) to evaluate the impact of delay to follow-up, shared kitchen or sanitary facilities, the presence of a known external infection source and the recent occurrence of a social gathering. We used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) for validation. RESULTS: We included 165 student residences, representing 200 residence units (N screened residents = 2324). Secondary transmission occurred in 68 units which corresponded to 176 secondary cases. The overall observed SAR was 8.2%. In the GEE model, shared sanitary facilities (p = 0.04) and the recent occurrence of a social gathering (p = 0.003) were associated with a significant increase in SAR in a living unit, which was estimated at 3% (95%CI 1.5-5.2) in the absence of any risk factor and 13% (95%CI 11.4-15.8) in the presence of both. The GLMM confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Shared sanitary facilities and the occurrence of social gatherings increase the risk of COVID-19 transmission and should be considered when screening and implementing preventive measures.

Empirical evidence on the efficiency of backward contact tracing in COVID-19.

Standard contact tracing practice for COVID-19 is to identify persons exposed to an infected person during the contagious period, assumed to start two days before symptom onset or diagnosis. In the first large cohort study on backward contact tracing for COVID-19, we extended the contact tracing window by 5 days, aiming to identify the source of the infection and persons infected by the same source. The risk of infection amongst these additional contacts was similar to contacts exposed during the standard tracing window and significantly higher than symptomatic individuals in a control group, leading to 42% more cases identified as direct contacts of an index case. Compared to standard practice, backward traced contacts required fewer tests and shorter quarantine. However, they were identified later in their infectious cycle if infected. Our results support implementing backward contact tracing when rigorous suppression of viral transmission is warranted.

Identification of the First SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.529 Virus Detected in Europe.

We report the complete genome sequence of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (lineage B.1.1.529) from a Belgian patient with a history of recent travel to Egypt. At the time of writing, this genome constituted the first confirmed case of an infection with the Omicron variant in Europe.

Considerable escape of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron to antibody neutralization.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was first identified in November 2021 in Botswana and South Africa1-3. It has since spread to many countries and is expected to rapidly become dominant worldwide. The lineage is characterized by the presence of around 32 mutations in spike-located mostly in the N-terminal domain and the receptor-binding domain-that may enhance viral fitness and enable antibody evasion. Here we isolated an infectious Omicron virus in Belgium from a traveller returning from Egypt. We examined its sensitivity to nine monoclonal antibodies that have been clinically approved or are in development4, and to antibodies present in 115 serum samples from COVID-19 vaccine recipients or individuals who have recovered from COVID-19. Omicron was completely or partially resistant to neutralization by all monoclonal antibodies tested. Sera from recipients of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine, sampled five months after complete vaccination, barely inhibited Omicron. Sera from COVID-19-convalescent patients collected 6 or 12 months after symptoms displayed low or no neutralizing activity against Omicron. Administration of a booster Pfizer dose as well as vaccination of previously infected individuals generated an anti-Omicron neutralizing response, with titres 6-fold to 23-fold lower against Omicron compared with those against Delta. Thus, Omicron escapes most therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and, to a large extent, vaccine-elicited antibodies. However, Omicron is neutralized by antibodies generated by a booster vaccine dose.

Macular hole morphology and measurement using an automated three-dimensional image segmentation algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: Full-thickness macular holes (MH) are classified principally by size, which is one of the strongest predictors of anatomical and visual success. Using a three-dimensional (3D) automated image processing algorithm, we analysed optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of 104 MH of patients, comparing MH dimensions and morphology with clinician-acquired two-dimensional measurements. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: All patients underwent a high-density central horizontal scanning OCT protocol. Two independent clinicians measured the minimum linear diameter (MLD) and maximum base diameter. OCT images were also analysed using an automated 3D segmentation algorithm which produced key parameters including the respective maximum and minimum diameter of the minimum area (MA) of the MH, as well as volume and surface area. RESULTS: Using the algorithm-derived values, MH were found to have significant asymmetry in all dimensions. The minima of the MA were typically approximately 90° to the horizontal, and differed from their maxima by 55 µm. The minima of the MA differed from the human-measured MLD by a mean of nearly 50 µm, with significant interobserver variability. The resultant differences led to reclassification using the International Vitreomacular Traction Study Group classification in a quarter of the patients (p=0.07). CONCLUSION: MH are complex shapes with significant asymmetry in all dimensions. We have shown how 3D automated analysis of MH describes their dimensions more accurately and repeatably than human assessment. This could be used in future studies investigating hole progression and outcome to help guide optimum treatments.

SIGNIFICANCE OF PREOPERATIVE EXTERNAL LIMITING MEMBRANE HEIGHT ON VISUAL PROGNOSIS IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING MACULAR HOLE SURGERY.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between the vertical elevation of the external limiting membrane (ELM) and visual outcome in patients undergoing surgery for idiopathic full-thickness macular hole. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of a consecutive cohort of patients undergoing vitrectomy to treat macular hole. The greatest vertical height of the central ELM above the retinal pigment epithelium (ELM height) was measured on spectral domain optical coherence tomography preoperatively. The relationship of ELM height to other preoperative and postoperative variables, including macular hole width and height, and visual acuity was analyzed. RESULTS: Data from 91 eyes of 91 patients who had undergone successful hole closure were included. The mean ELM height was 220 µm (range 100-394). There were significant correlations between the ELM height and the diameter of the hole, hole height, and worsening preoperative visual acuity. For holes less than 400 µm in width, better postoperative visual acuity was significantly predicted by a lower ELM height. CONCLUSION: The ELM height varies widely in idiopathic macular hole. It is higher in eyes where the hole is wider and also when the hole itself is higher. For holes of less than 400 µm in width, a lower ELM height is a strong independent predictor of a good postoperative outcome.

Multi-Scale Segmentation and Surface Fitting for Measuring 3-D Macular Holes.

Macular holes are blinding conditions, where a hole develops in the central part of retina, resulting in reduced central vision. The prognosis and treatment options are related to a number of variables, including the macular hole size and shape. High-resolution spectral domain optical coherence tomography allows precise imaging of the macular hole geometry in three dimensions, but the measurement of these by human observers is time-consuming and prone to high inter- and intra-observer variability, being characteristically measured in 2-D rather than 3-D. We introduce several novel techniques to automatically retrieve accurate 3-D measurements of the macular hole, including: surface area, base area, base diameter, top area, top diameter, height, and minimum diameter. Specifically, we introduce a multi-scale 3-D level set segmentation approach based on a state-of-the-art level set method, and we introduce novel curvature-based cutting and 3-D measurement procedures. The algorithm is fully automatic, and we validate our extracted measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively, where our results show the method to be robust across a variety of scenarios. Our automated processes are considered a significant contribution for clinical applications.

Accuracy of B-scan ultrasonography in acute fundus obscuring vitreous hemorrhage using a standardized scanning protocol and a dedicated ophthalmic ultrasonographer.

PURPOSE: To assess the accuracy of B-scan ultrasound (U/S) in diagnosing cases of acute fundus obscuring vitreous hemorrhage (FOVH) using a standardized scan protocol and dedicated ophthalmic ultrasonographer. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with acute FOVH of unknown cause, between January 2013 and December 2014, were prospectively recruited. Patients underwent a scan performed by a dedicated ultrasonographer, utilizing a systematic scan sequence and using an ocular specific U/S device. The U/S findings were compared to the findings during vitrectomy or after spontaneous hemorrhage clearance. RESULTS: Fifty-eight eyes (58 patients) were included. An underlying rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) and retinal tears without RRD were reported in nine and 14 patients, respectively. Nineteen of these patients underwent vitrectomy, and the other four underwent laser retinopexy or cryopexy alone. An additional six patients with suspected but uncertain retinal tears underwent vitrectomy, during which tears were confirmed in three, two had retinal vessel avulsions, and one had retinal new vessels. There was "complete" agreement between the B-scan findings and clinical findings in 78% of patients, "partial" agreement in 19%, and agreement was not tested in 3%. When the agreement was "partial", the disagreements did not affect patient management. The sensitivity was 100% for the detection of RRD, and for the detection of new retinal tears in patients without retinal detachment. CONCLUSION: B-scan U/S scan was highly sensitive in identifying the pathology in acute FOVH. Our results show an improvement from previously reported results, likely related to the standardized scan protocol and dedicated ophthalmic ultrasonographer.