RESUMO
The purpose of our work was to assess the independent and incremental value of AI-derived quantitative determination of lung lesions extent on initial CT scan for the prediction of clinical deterioration or death in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. 323 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 15 years, 192 men), with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and an abnormal chest CT scan, were admitted to the hospital between March and December 2020. The extent of consolidation and all lung opacities were quantified on an initial CT scan using a 3D automatic AI-based software. The outcome was known for all these patients. 85 (26.3%) patients died or experienced clinical deterioration, defined as intensive care unit admission. In multivariate regression based on clinical, biological and CT parameters, the extent of all opacities, and extent of consolidation were independent predictors of adverse outcomes, as were diabetes, heart disease, C-reactive protein, and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio. The association of CT-derived measures with clinical and biological parameters significantly improved the risk prediction (p = 0.049). Automated quantification of lung disease at CT in COVID-19 pneumonia is useful to predict clinical deterioration or in-hospital death. Its combination with clinical and biological data improves risk prediction.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To assess inter-reader agreements and diagnostic accuracy of chest CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with intermediate clinical probability during an acute disease outbreak. METHODS: From March 20 to April 8, 319 patients (mean age 62.3 years old) consecutive patients with an intermediate clinical probability of COVID-19 pneumonia underwent a chest CT scan. Two independent chest radiologists blinded to clinical information and RT-PCR results retrospectively reviewed and classified images on a 1-5 confidence level scale for COVID-19 pneumonia. Agreements between radiologists were assessed with kappa statistics. Diagnostic accuracy of chest CT compared with RT-PCR assay and patient outcomes was measured using receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 pneumonia were calculated. RESULTS: Inter-observer agreement for highly probable (kappa: 0.83 [p < .001]) and highly probable or probable (kappa: 0.82 [p < .001]) diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia was very good. RT-PCR tests performed in 307 patients were positive in 174 and negative in 133. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.94 and 0.92 respectively. With a disease prevalence of 61.2%, PPV were 95.9% and 94.3%, and NPV 84.4% and 77.1%. CONCLUSION: During acute COVID-19 outbreak, chest CT scan may be used for triage of patients with intermediate clinical probability with very good inter-observer agreements and diagnostic accuracy. KEY POINTS: ⢠Concordances between two chest radiologists to diagnose or exclude a COVID-19 pneumonia in 319 consecutive patients with intermediate clinical probability were very good (kappa: 0.82; p < .001). ⢠When compared with RT-PCR results and patient outcomes, the diagnostic accuracy of CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia was high for both radiologists (AUC: 0.94 and 0.92). ⢠With a disease prevalence of 61.2% in the studied population, the positive predictive values of CT for diagnosing COVID-19 pneumonia were 95.9% and 94.3% with negative predictive values of 84.4% and 77.1%.
