Limits to evolutionary rescue by conjugative plasmids.

Plasmids may carry genes coding for beneficial traits and thus contribute to adaptation of bacterial populations to environmental stress. Conjugative plasmids can horizontally transfer between cells, which a priori facilitates the spread of adaptive alleles. However, if the potential recipient cell is already colonized by another incompatible plasmid, successful transfer may be prevented. Competition between plasmids can thus limit horizontal transfer. Previous modeling has indeed shown that evolutionary rescue by a conjugative plasmid is hampered by incompatible resident plasmids in the population. If the rescue plasmid is a mutant variant of the resident plasmid, both plasmids transfer at the same rates. A high conjugation rate then has two, potentially opposing, effects - a direct positive effect on spread of the rescue plasmid and an increase in the fraction of resident plasmid cells. This raises the question whether a high conjugation rate always benefits evolutionary rescue. In this article, we systematically analyze three models of increasing complexity to disentangle the benefits and limits of increasing horizontal gene transfer in the presence of plasmid competition and plasmid costs. We find that the net effect can be positive or negative and that the optimal transfer rate is thus not always the highest one. These results can contribute to our understanding of the many facets of plasmid-driven adaptation and the wide range of transfer rates observed in nature.

Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants.

When vaccine supply is limited but population immunization urgent, the allocation of the available doses needs to be carefully considered. One aspect of dose allocation is the time interval between the first and the second injections in two-dose vaccines. By stretching this interval, more individuals can be vaccinated with the first dose more quickly, which can be beneficial in reducing case numbers, provided a single dose is sufficiently effective. On the other hand, there has been concern that intermediate levels of immunity in partially vaccinated individuals may favour the evolution of vaccine escape mutants. In that case, a large fraction of half-vaccinated individuals would pose a risk-but only if they encounter the virus. This raises the question whether there is a conflict between reducing the burden and the risk of vaccine escape evolution or not. We develop an SIR-type model to assess the population-level effects of the timing of the second dose. Trade-offs can occur both if vaccine escape evolution is more likely or if it is less likely in half-vaccinated than in unvaccinated individuals. Their presence or absence depends on the efficacies for susceptibility and transmissibility elicited by a single dose.

The emergence of cooperation by evolutionary generalization.

In principle, any cooperative behaviour can be evolutionarily stable as long as it is incentivized by a reward from the beneficiary, a mechanism that has been called reciprocal cooperation. However, what makes this mechanism so powerful also has an evolutionary downside. Reciprocal cooperation faces a chicken-and-egg problem of the same kind as communication: it requires two functions to evolve at the same time-cooperation and response to cooperation. As a result, it can only emerge if one side first evolves for another reason, and is then recycled into a reciprocal function. Developing an evolutionary model in which we make use of machine learning techniques, we show that this occurs if the fact to cooperate and reward others' cooperation become general abilities that extend beyond the set of contexts for which they have initially been selected. Drawing on an evolutionary analogy with the concept of generalization, we identify the conditions necessary for this to happen. This allows us to understand the peculiar distribution of reciprocal cooperation in the wild, virtually absent in most species-or limited to situations where individuals have partially overlapping interests, but pervasive in the human species.

Why cooperation is not running away.

A growing number of experimental and theoretical studies show the importance of partner choice as a mechanism to promote the evolution of cooperation, especially in humans. In this paper, we focus on the question of the precise quantitative level of cooperation that should evolve under this mechanism. When individuals compete to be chosen by others, their level of investment in cooperation evolves towards higher values, a process called competitive altruism, or runaway cooperation. Using a classic adaptive dynamics model, we first show that when the cost of changing partner is low, this runaway process can lead to a profitless escalation of cooperation. In the extreme, when partner choice is entirely frictionless, cooperation even increases up to a level where its cost entirely cancels out its benefit. That is, at evolutionary equilibrium, individuals gain the same payoff than if they had not cooperated at all. Second, importing models from matching theory in economics we, however, show that when individuals can plastically modulate their choosiness in function of their own cooperation level, partner choice stops being a runaway competition to outbid others and becomes a competition to form the most optimal partnerships. In this case, when the cost of changing partner tends towards zero, partner choice leads to the evolution of the socially optimum level of cooperation. This last result could explain the observation that human cooperation seems to be often constrained by considerations of social efficiency.