Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic.

Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained.

Onset of submarine debris flow deposition far from original giant landslide.

Submarine landslides can generate sediment-laden flows whose scale is impressive. Individual flow deposits have been mapped that extend for 1,500 km offshore from northwest Africa. These are the longest run-out sediment density flow deposits yet documented on Earth. This contribution analyses one of these deposits, which contains ten times the mass of sediment transported annually by all of the world's rivers. Understanding how this type of submarine flow evolves is a significant problem, because they are extremely difficult to monitor directly. Previous work has shown how progressive disintegration of landslide blocks can generate debris flow, the deposit of which extends downslope from the original landslide. We provide evidence that submarine flows can produce giant debris flow deposits that start several hundred kilometres from the original landslide, encased within deposits of a more dilute flow type called turbidity current. Very little sediment was deposited across the intervening large expanse of sea floor, where the flow was locally very erosive. Sediment deposition was finally triggered by a remarkably small but abrupt decrease in sea-floor gradient from 0.05 degrees to 0.01 degrees. This debris flow was probably generated by flow transformation from the decelerating turbidity current. The alternative is that non-channelized debris flow left almost no trace of its passage across one hundred kilometres of flat (0.2 degrees to 0.05 degrees) sea floor. Our work shows that initially well-mixed and highly erosive submarine flows can produce extensive debris flow deposits beyond subtle slope breaks located far out in the deep ocean.