Value of a QALY and VSI estimated with the chained approach.

The value of a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and the value of a statistical injury (VSI) are important measures within health economics and transport economics. Several studies have, therefore, estimated people's willingness to pay (WTP) for these estimates, but most results show scale insensitivity. The 'original' chained approach (CA) is a method developed to mitigate this problem by combining the contingent valuation (CV) with standard gamble (SG). In contrast to the version of the CA applied by the previous research of the WTP for a QALY, the original version allows the value of major health gains to be estimated without having the respondents express their WTP directly. The objective of this study was to estimate the value of a QALY and VSI in the context of non-fatal road traffic accidents using the original CA to test if the approach, applied to a wide range of health gains, is able to derive valid estimates and a constant value of a QALY which the previous research has not been able to show. Data were collected from a total of 800 individuals in the Swedish adult general population using two web-based questionnaires. The values of a QALY based on trimmed estimates were close to constant at €300,000 irrespective of the size of the QALY gain. The study shows that the original CA method may be a valid method to estimate the value of a QALY and VSI for major health losses. It also supports the use of a higher threshold value for a QALY than that which is currently applied by several health technology assessment agencies in different countries.

Measuring the end-of-life premium in cancer using individual ex ante willingness to pay.

For the assessment of value of new therapies in healthcare, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies often review the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Some HTA agencies accept a higher cost per QALY gained when treatment is aimed at prolonging survival for patients with a short expected remaining lifetime, a so-called end-of-life (EoL) premium. The objective of this study is to elicit the existence and size of an EoL premium in cancer. Data was collected from 509 individuals in the Swedish general population 20-80 years old using a web-based questionnaire. Preferences were elicited using subjective risk estimation and the contingent valuation (CV) method. A split-sample design was applied to test for order bias. The mean value of a QALY was MSEK4.8 (€528,000), and there was an EoL premium of 4-10% at 6 months of expected remaining lifetime. Using subjective risk resulted in more robust and valid estimates of the value of a QALY. Order of scenarios did not have a significant impact on the WTP and the result showed scale sensitivity. Our result provides some support for the use of an EoL premium based on individual preferences when expected remaining lifetime is short and below 24 months. Furthermore, we find support for a value of a QALY that is above the current threshold of several HTA agencies.

Socio-economic inequalities in health and health service use among older adults in India: results from the WHO Study on Global AGEing and adult health survey.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to measure socio-economic inequalities in self-reported health (SRH) and healthcare visits and to identify factors contributing to health inequalities among older people aged 50-plus years. STUDY DESIGN: This study is based on a population-based, cross-sectional survey. METHODS: We accessed data of 7150 older adults from the World Health Organization's Study on Global AGEing and adult health Indian survey. We used multivariate logistic regression to assess the correlates of poor SRH. We estimated the concentration index to measure socio-economic inequalities in SRH and healthcare visits. Regression-based decomposition analysis was employed to explore the correlates contributing to poor SRH inequality. RESULTS: About 19% (95% CI: 18%, 20%) reported poor health (n = 1368) and these individuals were significantly less wealthy. In total, 5134 (71.8%) participants made at least one health service visit. Increasing age, female gender, low social caste, rural residence, multimorbidity, absence of pension support, and health insurance were significant correlates of poor SRH. The standardized concentration index of poor SRH -0.122 (95% CI: -0.102; -0.141) and healthcare visits 0.364 (95% CI: 0.324, 0.403) indicated pro-poor and pro-rich inequality, respectively. Economic status (62.3%), pension support (11.5%), health insurance coverage (11.5%), social caste (10.7%) and place of residence (4.1%) were important contributors to inequalities in poor health. CONCLUSION: Socio-economic disparities in health and health care are major concerns in India. Achievement of health equity demand strategies beyond health policies, to include pro-poor, social welfare policies among older Indians.

Predicting mortality in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus after major complications: a study using Swedish National Diabetes Register data.

AIM: To predict mortality risk and life expectancy for patients with type 2 diabetes after a major diabetes-related complication. METHODS: The study sample, taken from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, consisted of 20 836 people with type 2 diabetes who had their first major complication (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, amputation or renal failure) between January 2001 and December 2007. A Gompertz proportional hazards model was derived which determined significant risk factors associated with mortality and was used to estimate life expectancies. RESULTS: Risk of death changed over time according to type of complication, with myocardial infarction initally having the highest initial risk of death, but after the first month, the risk was higher for heart failure, renal failure and amputation. Other factors that increased the risk of death were male gender (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.12), longer duration of diabetes (hazard ratio 1.07 per 10 years, 95% CI 1.04-1.10), smoking (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.40-1.63) and macroalbuminuria (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22). Low BMI, low systolic blood pressure and low estimated GFR also increased mortality risk. Life expectancy was highest after a stroke, myocardial infarction or heart failure, lower after amputation and lowest after renal failure. Smoking and poor renal function were the risk factors which had the largest impact on reducing life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of death and life expectancy differs substantially among the major complications of diabetes, and factors significantly increasing risk included smoking, low estimated GFR and albuminuria.

Impact of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes on schooling: a population-based register study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated the impact of type 1 diabetes on educational achievements in compulsory and upper secondary school, as well as potential long-lasting effects. METHODS: Altogether 2,485 individuals with type 1 diabetes, diagnosed at the age of <15 years and born in 1972-1978, were selected from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, which was linked to national population registers including the Swedish Education Register. For each individual, four controls from the general population, matched for year of birth and residence at the time of diagnosis, were selected by Statistics Sweden (n = 9,940). We analysed the impact of diabetes on final school grades at 16 years (compulsory school) and 19 years (upper secondary school) and on participation in the labour market at 29 years using linear, logistic, ordered logistic and quantile regression analyses, controlling for demographics and socioeconomic background. RESULTS: Diabetes had a negative effect on mean final grades (scale of 1-5) in compulsory school (-0.07, p < 0.001) and theoretical programmes in upper secondary school (-0.07, p = 0.001). Children with early-onset diabetes (0-4 years) suffered a greater disadvantage as a result of the disease (-0.15, p = 0.001 in compulsory school). The strongest effect was seen in the lowest deciles of the conditional distribution on mean final grades. At age 29, individuals with diabetes were less likely to be gainfully employed (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The small but significant negative effect of type 1 diabetes on schooling could affect opportunities for further education and career development. Attention must be paid in school to the special needs of children with diabetes.

Understanding adherence to official guidelines on statin prescribing in primary health care--a multi-level methodological approach.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to investigate the role that municipalities and out-patient health care centres (HCCs) have in understanding adherence to official guidelines on statin prescribing. Our hypothesis was that after guideline publication, adherence to recommended statin prescription would increase and variance among HCCs and municipalities would decrease. Since multi-level regression analysis (MLRA) is a relatively new methodology in pharmacoepidemiology, we also aimed to explore the application of MLRA in our investigation. METHODS: We obtained data from the Swedish Corporation of Pharmacies record of sales regarding all initial prescriptions of statins issued between April and December 2003. We applied multi-level analysis on 34,514 individual prescriptions (level 1) nested within 226 HCCs (level 2), which in turn were nested within 33 municipalities (level 3). Temporal trends and gender differences were investigated by means of random slope analysis. Variance was expressed using median odds ratio (MOR) and interval odds ratio. RESULTS: HCCs appeared to be more relevant than municipalities for understanding the physicians' propensity to prescribe a recommended statin (MOR(HCC) = 1.96 and MOR(Municipality) = 1.41). Overall prevalence of adherence was very low (about 20%). After publication of the guidelines, prescription of recommended statins increased, and variance among HCCs decreased but only during the first 4 months of the observation period. CONCLUSION: The publication of official guidelines in the county of Scania exerted a positive influence on statin prescription but, at the end of the observation period, adherence was still low and practice variation high. These facts may reflect inefficient therapeutic traditions and suggest that more intensive interventions may be necessary to promote rational statin prescription.

Country of birth, socioeconomic position, and healthcare expenditure: a multilevel analysis of Malmö, Sweden.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The principle of equity aims to guarantee allocation of healthcare resources on the basis of need. Therefore, people with a low income and persons living alone are expected to have higher healthcare expenditures. Besides these individual characteristics healthcare expenditure may be influenced by country of birth. This study therefore aimed to investigate the role of country of birth in explaining individual healthcare expenditure. DESIGN: Multilevel regression model based on individuals (first level) and their country of birth (second level). SETTING: The city of Malmö, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: All the 52 419 men aged 40-80 years from 130 different countries of birth, who were living in Malmö, Sweden, during 1999. MAIN RESULTS: At the individual level, persons with a low income and persons living alone showed a higher healthcare expenditure, with regression coefficients (and 95% confidence intervals) being 0.358 (0.325 to 0.392) and 0.197 (0.165 to 0.230), respectively. Country of birth explained a considerable part (18% and 13%) of the individual differences in the probability of having a low income and living alone, respectively. However, this figure was only 3% for having some health expenditure, and barely 0.7% with regard to costs in the 74% of the population with some health expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: Malmö is a socioeconomically segregated city, in which the country of birth seems to play only a minor part in explaining individual differences in total healthcare expenditure. These differences seem instead to be determined by individual low income and living alone.

Equity in Swedish health care reconsidered: new results based on the finite mixture model.

This paper reconsiders the equity issue in Swedish health care utilization previously analysed by Gerdtham (Health Econ 1997; 6: 303-319) within the framework of the standard two-part model. Departing from the user/non-user distinction, we use the more flexible framework of the finite mixture model that distinguishes between frequent/infrequent users. Our results indicate that the support for the inequity hypothesis reported by Gerdtham is sensitive to model specification and the way standard errors of coefficients are estimated. The new framework offers an alternative perspective on the magnitude of the income-related difference in health care utilization.

On stationarity and cointegration of international health expenditure and GDP.

This paper examines stationarity and cointegration of health expenditure and GDP, for a sample of 21 OECD countries using data for the period 1960-1997, by applying a test battery that allows robust inference to be made on the stationarity and cointegration issue. Trend stationarity and no-cointegration are tested using new country-by-country and panel tests, not previously applied in this setting. New results for country-by-country and panel tests of non-stationarity and cointegration are presented. Our unit root and trend stationarity results indicate that both health expenditure and GDP are non-stationary. The no-cointegration and cointegration results indicate that health expenditure and GDP are cointegrated.

Income-related inequality in life-years and quality-adjusted life-years.

We estimate the income-related inequality in Sweden with respect to life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We use a large data set from Sweden with over 40,000 individuals followed up for 10-16 years, to estimate the survival and quality-adjusted survival in different income groups. For both life-years and QALYs, we discover inequalities in health favouring the higher income groups. For men (women) in the youngest age-group (20-29 years), the number of QALYs is 43.7 (45.7) in the lowest income decile and 47.2 (49.0) in the highest income decile.

Equity in the delivery of health care in Europe and the US.

This paper presents a comparison of horizontal equity in health care utilization in 10 European countries and the US. It does not only extend previous work by using more recent data from a larger set of countries, but also uses new methods and presents disaggregated results by various types of care. In all countries, the lower-income groups are more intensive users of the health care system. But after indirect standardization for need differences, there is little or no evidence of significant inequity in the delivery of health care overall, though in half of the countries, significant pro-rich inequity emerges for physician contacts. This seems to be due mainly to a higher use of medical specialist services by higher-income groups and a higher use of GP care among lower-income groups. These findings appear to be fairly general and emerge in countries with very diverse characteristics regarding access and provider incentives.

New estimates of the demand for health: results based on a categorical health measure and Swedish micro data.

In this paper we estimate a "Grossman" model of demand for health based on Swedish micro data. The data set consists of a random sample of over 5000 individuals taken from the Swedish adult population. Health capital is measured by a categorical measure of overall health status, and an ordered probit model is used to econometrically estimate the demand for health equation. The results are consistent with the theoretical predictions and show that the demand for health increases with income and education and decreases with age, male gender, overweight, living in big cities and being single.

Equity in the finance of health care: some further international comparisons.

This paper presents further international comparisons of progressivity of health care financing systems. The paper builds on the work of Wagstaff et al. [Wagstaff, A., van Doorslaer E., et al., 1992. Equity in the finance of health care: some international comparisons, Journal of Health Economics 11, pp. 361-387] but extends it in a number of directions: we modify the methodology used there and achieve a higher degree of cross-country comparability in variable definitions; we update and extend the cross-section of countries; and we present evidence on trends in financing mixes and progressivity.

The redistributive effect of health care finance in twelve OECD countries.

The OECD countries finance their health care through a mixture of taxes, social insurance contributions, private insurance premiums and out-of-pocket payments. The various payment sources have very different implications for both vertical and horizontal equity and on redistributive effect which is a function of both. This paper presents results on the income redistribution consequences of the health care financing mixes adopted in twelve OECD countries by decomposing the overall income redistributive effect into a progressivity, horizontal inequity and reranking component. The general finding of this study is that the vertical effect is much more important than horizontal inequity and reranking in determining the overall redistributive effect but that their relative importance varies by source of payment. Public finance sources tend to have small positive redistributive effects and less differential treatment while private financing sources generally have (larger) negative redistributive effects which are to a substantial degree caused by differential treatment.

Estimating the effect of cesarean section rate on health outcome. Evidence from Swedish hospital data.

This paper tests the null hypothesis of a zero effect of cesarean section rate on health outcome against the alternative of a positive effect. Using data from 59 hospitals in Sweden from 1988-92, we specify two separate linear regression models for health outcome, one with perinatal mortality, and the other with rate of asphyxia, as dependent variable. We estimate the models by single-year cross-section regressions and as pooled data systems. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected, i.e., we do not find any significant positive effect of cesarean section rate on health outcome. Thus, we conclude that an increase in cesarean section rate does not imply lower perinatal mortality or lower rate of asphyxia. This in turn indicates that the minimum cesarean section rate is optimal.

A note on validating Wagstaff and van Doorslaer's health measure in the analysis of inequalities in health.

The aim of this note is to validate Wagstaff and van Doorslaer's approach of constructing a continuous health measure to be used in the analysis of inequalities in health. We calculate health concentration indices for Uppsala County in Sweden based on three different health status measures: health measured according to the WvD approach based on a self-assessed categorical health measure, health measured by the rating scale method, and health measured by the time trade-off method. The concentration index does not differ significantly for the three health status measures, and our results thus support the validity of the WvD method.

Internal markets and health care efficiency: a multiple-output stochastic frontier analysis.

This paper has two purposes. The first purpose is methodological and aims to extend previous work on efficiency analysis by implementing a multiple-output stochastic ray frontier production function model. This model generalizes the single-output stochastic frontier model to multiple-input, multiple-output technologies and allows simultaneous estimation of technical efficiency and analysis of influential variables on efficiency. The second, empirical, purpose is to test for existence and magnitude of the effect of purchaser/provider split combined with new reimbursement schemes on technical efficiency in the Swedish public hospital system. The analysis is carried out with a panel data set covering the total population of 26 Swedish County Councils from 1989 to 1995. Our empirical results support the frontier model specification and indicate that output-based reimbursement improves technical efficiency. The potential saving in costs due to a switch from budget-based allocation to output-based allocation is estimated to be almost 10%.

Equity in the delivery of health care in Sweden.

There is mutual agreement that health care should be delivered according to need. In this article, although we employ different specifications for need, we conclude that there is inequity in the delivery of health care in Sweden. Higher income groups visit doctors more often than lower income groups in relation to need, but lower income groups remain in hospital longer once they have been admitted. These findings may be interpreted to mean that lower income groups, for various reasons, wait too long before visiting a doctor for a specific disease, the consequence being that the disease is so serious by the time the doctor is contacted that inpatient care and a longer time in hospital are necessary. The policy implication of this situation is that lower patient fees and/or higher incomes may help to reduce the inequities in health care.

Estimating the costs of hip fracture and potential savings.

This paper examines the determinants of hip fracture costs and further evaluates potential savings in costs when the occurrence of hip fracture is prevented. The costs of hip fracture are comprised of direct costs from health care and the social welfare system. Data were collected for 1,080 postmenopausal women admitted from private residence for primary hip fracture surgery during the year of 1992 in the city of Stockholm, Sweden. It was found that the cost of hip fracture is significantly related to age, mortality the year after a fracture, type of fracture, costs 1 year before a fracture, and hospital admission. The savings in direct costs for an average woman surviving the year after a fracture amount to SEK 210,000.

Costs of treating primary open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension: a retrospective, observational two-year chart review of newly diagnosed patients in Sweden and the United States.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate what treatment strategies prevail in different countries for patients newly diagnosed with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) or ocular hypertension (OH) only and initiated on treatment with beta-blockers, and to estimate the total direct cost of treatment for two years. In addition, differences in costs between and within the countries and the determinants of variations in costs across patients were examined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The authors performed a retrospective medical record analysis in several academic and office-based study centers in Sweden and the United States. Standard costs for each resource item were determined and applied to all centers within the country. Differences in treatment costs within the countries are thus the effect of differences in treatment strategies, not of differences in prices. RESULTS: There was considerable variation between the centers of each country. Sweden had a higher number of surgical interventions, which may be explained by the fact that the Swedish cohort had a higher mean intraocular pressure (IOP) at baseline and a higher proportion of patients with definite POAG and exfoliation glaucoma. However, in both countries the mean IOP at study end was approximately 18 mm Hg. Total direct costs for two years were 15,119 SEK (US$2,160; $1US = 7 SEK) and $2,109, respectively. In a multiple regression analysis, the estimated effects of baseline IOP and of IOP change after treatment initiation on treatment costs were positively and negatively significant, respectively, in both countries. CONCLUSION: Despite differences in baseline diagnosis and in treatment strategies, mean IOP was decreased to 18 mm Hg in both countries. Baseline IOP was positively correlated with treatment costs, while the initial IOP-lowering effect of treatment was negatively correlated with two-year costs.