Modeling time-to-cure from severe acute malnutrition: application of various parametric frailty models.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries about 3.5% of children aged 0-5 years are victims of severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Once the morbidity has developed the cure process takes variable period depending on various factors. Knowledge of time-to-cure from SAM will enable health care providers to plan resources and monitor the progress of cases with SAM. The current analysis presents modeling time-to-cure from SAM starting from the day of diagnosis in Wolisso St. Luke Catholic hospital, southwest Ethiopia. METHODS: With the aim of coming up with appropriate survival (time-to-event) model that describes the SAM dataset, various parametric clustered time-to-event (frailty) models were compared. Frailty model, which is an extension of the proportional hazards Cox survival model, was used to analyze time-to-cure from SAM. Kebeles (villages) of the children were considered as the clustering variable in all the models. We used exponential, weibull and log-logistic as baseline hazard functions and the gamma as well as inverse Gaussian for the frailty distributions and then based on AIC criteria, all models were compared for their performance. RESULTS: The median time-to-cure from SAM cases was 14 days with the maximum of 63 days of which about 83% were cured. The log-logistic model with inverse Gaussian frailty has the minimum AIC value among the models compared. The clustering effect was significant in modeling time-to-cure from SAM. The results showed that age of a child and co-infection were the determinant prognostic factors for SAM, but sex of the child and the type of malnutrition were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: The log-logistic with inverse Gaussian frailty model described the SAM dataset better than other distributions used in this study. There is heterogeneity between the kebeles in the time-to-cure from SAM, indicating that one needs to account for this clustering variable using appropriate clustered time-to-event frailty models.

Evaluation of the efficacy of DDT indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets against insecticide resistant populations of Anopheles arabiensis Patton (Diptera: Culicidae) from Ethiopia using experimental huts.

BACKGROUND: Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) and Long-Lasting Insecticidal nets (LLINs) are major malaria vector control tools in Ethiopia. However, recent reports from different parts of the country showed that populations of Anopheles arabiensis, the principal malaria vector, have developed resistance to most families of insecticides recommended for public health use which may compromise the efficacy of both of these key vector control interventions. Thus, this study evaluated the efficacy of DDT IRS and LLINs against resistant populations of An. arabiensis using experimental huts in Asendabo area, southwestern Ethiopia. METHODS: The susceptibility status of populations of An. arabiensis was assessed using WHO test kits to DDT, deltamethrin, malathion, lambda-cyhalothrin, fenitrothion and bendiocarb. The efficacy of LLIN (PermaNet 2.0), was evaluated using the WHO cone bioassay. Moreover, the effect of the observed resistance against malaria vector control interventions (DDT IRS and LLINs) were assessed using experimental huts. RESULTS: The findings of this study revealed that populations of An. arabiensis were resistant to DDT, deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin and malathion with mortality rates of 1.3%, 18.8%, 36.3% and 72.5%, respectively but susceptible to fenitrothion and bendiocarb with mortality rates of 98.81% and 97.5%, respectively. The bio-efficacy test of LLIN (PermaNet 2.0) against An. arabiensis revealed that the mosquito population showed moderate knockdown (64%) and mortality (78%). Moreover, mosquito mortalities in DDT sprayed huts and in huts with LLINs were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from their respective controls. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of the efficacy of DDT IRS and LLINs using experimental huts showed that both vector control tools had only low to moderate efficacy against An. arabiensis populations from Ethiopia. Despite DDT being replaced by carbamates for IRS, the low efficacy of LLINs against the resistant population of An. arabiensis is still a problem. Thus, there is a need for alternative vector control tools and implementation of appropriate insecticide resistance management strategies as part of integrated vector management by the national malaria control program.

The effect of dams and seasons on malaria incidence and anopheles abundance in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Reservoirs created by damming rivers are often believed to increase malaria incidence risk and/or stretch the period of malaria transmission. In this paper, we report the effects of a mega hydropower dam on P. falciparum malaria incidence in Ethiopia. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted over a period of 2 years to determine Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence among children less than 10 years of age living near a mega hydropower dam in Ethiopia. A total of 2080 children from 16 villages located at different distances from a hydropower dam were followed up from 2008 to 2010 using active detection of cases based on weekly house to house visits. Of this cohort of children, 951 (48.09%) were females and 1059 (51.91%) were males, with a median age of 5 years. Malaria vectors were simultaneously surveyed in all the 16 study villages. Frailty models were used to explore associations between time-to-malaria and potential risk factors, whereas, mixed-effects Poisson regression models were used to assess the effect of different covariates on anopheline abundance. RESULTS: Overall, 548 (26.86%) children experienced at least one clinical malaria episode during the follow up period with mean incidence rate of 14.26 cases/1000 child-months at risk (95% CI: 12.16 - 16.36). P. falciparum malaria incidence showed no statistically significant association with distance from the dam reservoir (p = 0.32). However, P. falciparum incidence varied significantly between seasons (p < 0.01). The malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis, was however more abundant in villages nearer to the dam reservoir. CONCLUSIONS: P. falciparum malaria incidence dynamics were more influenced by seasonal drivers than by the dam reservoir itself. The findings could have implications in timing optimal malaria control interventions and in developing an early warning system in Ethiopia.

Coping with time and space in modelling malaria incidence: a comparison of survival and count regression models.

To study the effect of a mega hydropower dam in southwest Ethiopia on malaria incidence, we have set up a longitudinal study. To gain insight in temporal and spatial aspects, that is, in time (period = year-season combination) and location (village), we need models that account for these effects. The frailty model with periodwise constant baseline hazard (a constant value for each period) and a frailty term that models the clustering in villages provides an appropriate tool for the analysis of such incidence data. Count data can be obtained by aggregating for each period events at the village level. The mixed Poisson regression model can be used to model the count data. We show the similarities between the two models. The risk factor in both models is the distance to the dam, and we study the effect of the risk factor on malaria incidence. In the frailty model, each subject has its own risk factor, whereas in the Poisson regression model, we also need to average the risk factors of all subjects contributing to a particular count. The power loss caused by using village averaged distance instead of individual distance is studied and quantified. The loss in the malaria data example is rather small. In such a setting, it might be advantageous to use less labor-intensive sampling schemes than the weekly individual follow-up scheme used in this study; the proposed alternative sampling schemes might also avoid community fatigue, a typical problem in such research projects.

Anaemia and associated risk factors among pregnant women in Gilgel Gibe dam area, Southwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is known to be one of the outcomes of parasitic infection and it may result in impaired cognitive development, reduced physical work capacity and in severe cases increased risk of mortality, particularly during the prenatal period. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of anaemia among pregnant women in Gilgel-Gibe dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional community based study was conducted on 388 pregnant women living in three districts around Gilgel Gibe Dam area, southwestern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data were collected from each participant. A single stool sample was also collected from each selected pregnant woman. Haemoglobin concentration was determined by the cyanmethemoglobin method. Plasmodium infection prevalence and intensity were assessed with thin and thick blood film examination. RESULTS: Of the total 388 study participants, 209 (53.9%) were anaemic. Pregnant woman who were rural residents (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.62, 95% C.I: 1.02-2.62, P= 0.042), not using insecticide treated nets (ITNs) during the study period (AOR = 2.84, 95% C.I: 1.33-6.05, p = 0.007), those who were Plasmodium malaria infected (AOR = 11.19, 95% C.I: 3.31-37.7, p= 0.01) and those with Soil Transmitted Helminth (STH) infections (AOR=1.82, 95% C.I: 1.16-2.87, p=0.001) had higher odds of being anaemic than those who were urban residents, using ITNs, free of Plasmodium malaria and Soil transmitted helminth infection, respectively. There was a significant correlation between increasing hookworm parasite load (r = -.110, P< 0.001), Ascaris lumbricoides (r = -.122, P < 0.001) and Trichuris trichiura (r = -.025, P < 0.001) and decreasing hematocrit values. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of anaemia indicates it is currently a serious health problem of pregnant women living in Gilgel Gibe Dam area. Plasmodium malaria and soil transmitted helminth infections were significantly associated with anaemia. Antenatal care should promote de-worming and education on personal hygiene. Therefore, there is a need to design strategies that help to diagnose pregnant women for malaria and STH infections during their antenatal care (ANC) visit instead of testing for only haemoglobin (Hgb) levels and blood group.

Bio-efficacy of selected long-lasting insecticidal nets against pyrethroid resistant Anopheles arabiensis from South-Western Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The emergence and spread of insecticide resistance in the major African malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis may compromise control initiatives based on insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS), and thus threaten the global malaria elimination strategy. METHODS: We investigated pyrethroid resistance in four populations of An. arabiensis from south-western Ethiopia and then assessed the bio-efficacy of six World Health Organization recommended long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) using these populations. RESULTS: For all four populations of An. arabiensis, bottle bioassays indicated low to moderate susceptibility to deltamethrin (mortality at 30 minutes ranged between 43 and 80%) and permethrin (mortality ranged between 16 and 76%). Pre-exposure to the synergist piperonylbutoxide (PBO) significantly increased the susceptibility of all four populations to both deltamethrin (mortality increased between 15.3 and 56.8%) and permethrin (mortality increased between 11.6 and 58.1%), indicating the possible involvement of metabolic resistance in addition to the previously identified kdr mutations. There was reduced susceptibility of all four An. arabiensis populations to the five standard LLINs tested (maximum mortality 81.1%; minimum mortality 13.9%). Bio-efficacy against the four populations varied by net type, with the largest margin of difference observed with the Jimma population (67.2% difference). Moreover, there were differences in the bio-efficacy of each individual standard LLIN against the four mosquito populations; for example there was a difference of 40% in mortality of Yorkool against two populations. Results from standard LLINs indicated reduced susceptibility to new, unused nets that was likely due to observed pyrethroid resistance. The roof of the combination LLIN performed optimally (100% mortality) against all the four populations of An. arabiensis, indicating that observed reductions in susceptibility could be ameliorated with the combination of PBO with deltamethrin, as used in PermaNet® 3.0. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that bio-efficacy evaluations using local mosquito populations should be conducted where possible to make evidence-based decisions on the most suitable control products, and that those combining multiple chemicals such as PBO and deltamethrin should be considered for maintaining a high level of efficacy in vector control programmes.

Food insecurity and age at menarche among adolescent girls in Jimma Zone Southwest Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Age at menarche is the reflection of cumulative pre-adolescent exposure of girls to either adverse environment such as food insecurity or affluent living conditions. Food insecurity could result in inadequate nutrient intake and stress, both of which are hypothesized to have opposing effects on the timing of menarche through divergent pathways. It is not known whether food insecure girls have delayed menarche or early menarche compared with their food secure peers. In this study we test the competing hypothesis of the relationship between food insecurity and age at menarche among adolescent girls in the Southwest Ethiopia. METHODS: We report on 900 girls who were investigated in the first two rounds of the five year longitudinal survey. The semi-parametric frailty model was fitted to determine the effect of adolescent food insecurity on time to menarche after adjusting for socio-demographic and economic variables. RESULTS: Food insecure girls have menarche one year later than their food secure peer (median age of 15 years vs 14 years). The hazard of menarche showed a significant decline (P = 0.019) as severity of food insecurity level increased, the hazard ratio (HR) for mild food insecurity and moderate/severe food insecurity were 0.936 and 0.496, respectively compared to food secure girls. Stunted girls had menarche nearly one year later than their non-stunted peers (HR = 0.551, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Food insecurity is associated with delay of age at menarche by one year among girls in the study area. Stunted girls had menarche one year later than their non-stunted peers. Age at menarche reflects the development of girls including the timing of sexual maturation, nutritional status and trajectory of growth during the pre-pubertal periods. The findings reflect the consequence of chronic food insecurity on the development and well-being of girls in the study area.

Multiple insecticide resistance: an impediment to insecticide-based malaria vector control program.

BACKGROUND: Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are key components in malaria prevention and control strategy. However, the development of resistance by mosquitoes to insecticides recommended for IRS and/or ITNs/LLINs would affect insecticide-based malaria vector control. We assessed the susceptibility levels of Anopheles arabiensis to insecticides used in malaria control, characterized basic mechanisms underlying resistance, and evaluated the role of public health use of insecticides in resistance selection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Susceptibility status of An. arabiensis was assessed using WHO bioassay tests to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin, malathion and propoxur in Ethiopia from August to September 2009. Mosquito specimens were screened for knockdown resistance (kdr) and insensitive acetylcholinesterase (ace-1(R)) mutations using AS-PCR and PCR-RFLP, respectively. DDT residues level in soil from human dwellings and the surrounding environment were determined by Gas Chromatography with Electron Capture Detector. An. arabiensis was resistant to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin and malathion, but susceptible to propoxur. The West African kdr allele was found in 280 specimens out of 284 with a frequency ranged from 95% to 100%. Ace-1(R) mutation was not detected in all specimens scored for the allele. Moreover, DDT residues were found in soil samples from human dwellings but not in the surrounding environment. CONCLUSION: The observed multiple-resistance coupled with the occurrence of high kdr frequency in populations of An. arabiensis could profoundly affect the malaria vector control programme in Ethiopia. This needs an urgent call for implementing rational resistance management strategies and integrated vector control intervention.

Gender differences in food insecurity and morbidity among adolescents in southwest Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: Several studies have shown the adverse health consequences of food insecurity on household members. To what extent this relationship is mediated by gender among adolescents has not been documented. We hypothesized that the health consequences of food insecurity would be more pronounced in girls compared with boys. METHODS: We used the first-round data from a 5-year longitudinal family survey of 2084 adolescents aged 13 to 17 years from urban, semiurban, and rural areas of southwest Ethiopia. Stratified random sampling was used to select households and adolescents. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare self-reported morbidity according to food-security status and gender after adjusting for nutritional and socioeconomic covariates. RESULTS: Overall, 29.9% of girls and 19.2% of boys reported illness during the previous 1 month before the survey. Food-insecure girls were twice as likely to report suffering from an illness (P < .01) compared with boys, and the risk of reported illness tripled when girls were food insecure and were part of food-insecure households (P < .01). Girls were 7.4 and 7.0 times more likely to report difficulties with activities because of poor health and having a feeling of tiredness/low energy compared with boys, respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We report that in a food-insecure situation, gender is an important predictor of an adolescent's self-reported health status. Food-security interventions should consider gender as a key variable to narrow the gap in health between boys and girls.

An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. METHODS: The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. RESULTS: Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV epidemic and trend.