Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. METHODS: In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. RESULTS: An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). CONCLUSION: Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years.

Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran.

Objectives: We aimed to model and predict the changes in the trend of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-risk area of Iran. Methods: This case-series study was conducted in Fars province, south of Iran, between April 2016 and July 2021. All referred cases of VBDs were considered during the five years to investigate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemiological profile of these diseases. We used time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models. Results: Pediculosis incidence trend was rising with a peak of 1,146 per 100,000 in 2018, followed by a dramatic decrease reached to the minimum amount of 157.8 per 100,000 in 2021. In contrast, malaria and scabies had a smooth decreasing trend ranging from 2.2 per 100,000 and 7.3 per 100,000 in 2016 to a minimum of 0.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Likewise, leishmaniasis had a falling trend, with a maximum rate of 82.9 per 100,000 in 2016 to the lowest rate of 9.4 per 100,000 in 2021. However, the difference between observed and expected values revealed that the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of leishmaniasis cases. Conclusion: Tropical regions of Iran, including Fars province, are the favorite destinations for travelers. During COVID-19 outbreaks, some reasons, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and social distancing, reduced human-vector contact and finally led to the reduction of VBDs in this area.

Knowledge and attitude of students of medical sciences universities regarding health tourism: A cross-sectional study.

Background and Aims: Health tourism is already one of the most important sources of revenue for many countries all over the world, but it appears that it has not progressed as much in Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the knowledge and attitudes of students of Iranian medical sciences universities about this subject, which could have a great impact on the future of this industry in Iran. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the students of medical sciences universities in Iran were selected through convenience sampling; they filled out an online 36-item self-administrated questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS software (version 25). Descriptive statistics of knowledge and attitude were provided. Also, independent samples t-test and analysis of variance were used as statistical tests and p value <0.05 was considered as the significant level. Results: Overall, 390 students with a mean age of 24 ± 1.5 years and a female-to-male ratio of 1.9 participated in this study. The respondents answered 38% of the questions correctly in the knowledge section. Age, ethnicity, education level, job experience, experience of a health tourism-related job, participation in health tourism courses, and geographical region of the province of residence showed a significant association with the participants' knowledge. Also, most participants had an almost positive attitude regarding the potential for development of the industry. Conclusion: According to the results obtained, the students' knowledge about health tourism was not desirable; however, their attitudes were almost positive. Therefore, educational interventions are highly recommended to be conducted in this regard.

Pattern of contributing behaviors and their determinants among people living with HIV in Iran: A 30-year nationwide study.

Introduction: A major shift in the routes of HIV transmission seams to be taking place in Iran. Our study aimed to investigate the 30-year trend of major HIV related behaviors in Iran. Methods: The national HIV/AIDS registry database (from September 1986 to July 2016 with data on 32,168 people newly diagnosed with HIV) was used to study the 30 years trend and demographic determinants of major HIV related behaviors. Results: The highest rate of drug injection (DI) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) was reported during 1996 to 1999 (p-for trend < 0.001) while the highest rate of sexual activity by minorities or hard to reach groups was during 2004 to 2011 (p-for trend < 0.001). Among males, drug injection was directly associated with being single (ORsingle/married = 1.34), being unemployed (ORunemployed/employed = 1.94) and having lower level of education (OR

Factors Associated With Late Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Living With HIV in Southern Iran: A Historical Cohort Study.

Objectives: Late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with poor outcome among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and higher risk of transmission of infection. This study was conducted to identify the determinants of late ART initiation among PLHIV in Southern Iran. Methods: A historical cohort study was conducted on 1,326 PLHIV of ≥15 years of age who were registered with the behavioral diseases counseling center (BDCC) in southern Iran from August 1997 to March 2021. Late ART initiation was defined as a CD4 cell count <200 cells/mm3 or having a clinical AIDS diagnosis at the time of ART initiation. The required demographic and clinical data were collected from the patients' medical records. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to define late ART initiation associated factors. Results: Late ART initiation was found among 81.9% of patients. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, older age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.00-1.04), being single (ORsingle/married = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.17-2.78), history of drug use (ORyes/no = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.02-2.62), year of ART initiation (OR2011-2013/2018-2021 = 3.65, 95% CI = 2.28-5.86), and possible route of transmission (ORdruginjection/sexual = 7.34, 95% CI = 1.16-46.21) were directly associated with the risk of late ART initiation. Conclusions: The results show that the prevalence of late ART initiation was alarmingly high. For better infection control and better prognosis of infection, people at high risk need to be provided with timely services (e.g., diagnosis, treatment, training, and social support).

Trend of geographical distribution of stomach cancer in Iran from 2004 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Among different common types of cancer, gastric cancer (GC) is a worldwide health priority in both developing and developed countries. The aim of this study was to map the distribution of incident cases of GC in Iran to provide a geographical presentation of the incidence of the disease. METHODS: This study used the Iranian National Cancer Registry (INCR) data from 2004 to 2014. We calculated the crude and age-standardized incidence rates of GC for each province and also defined the frequency distribution of different types and locations of GC by the provinces. RESULTS: According to the results of the present study, the patients were predominantly male 49,907 (70.0%) and the most prevalent type of tumour was A1 (almost 96.4%) and C3| (2.0%). Also, a significant difference was observed between males and females in the distribution of the types of tumour (P < 0.001). In addition, a comparison of the distribution of the types of GC in Iran suggested that a significant difference exists between the provinces (P < 0.001). A significant difference was observed when the distribution of the location of GC tumors was compared between males and females and provinces (P < 0.001). Accordingly, pylori and cardia are the most common location of GC cancer among the study population (28.1% and 31.3% respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study suggested a higher rate of GC incidence in Iran when compared to the global figure in both females and males. Our study also revealed significant disparities between provinces with regard to the distribution of types, and location of GC. This may suggest involving different factors in GC in different parts of Iran. Further studies are needed to better understand the epidemiology and etiology of the disease in Iran.

Late diagnosis of HIV infection and its associated factors in Shiraz, Southern Iran: a retrospective study.

Late diagnosis (LD) of HIV infection can give rise to suboptimal responses to antiretroviral treatment. The current study aimed to determine the prevalence and associated factors of HIV LD in Shiraz, Southern Iran. This retrospective cohort study was conducted from August 1997 to May 2018. Medical records were examined to extract required data. Individuals with time period less than three months from HIV diagnosis to an advanced phase of AIDS on CD4 < 350 were considered as LD. Multivariable logistic regression used to investigate the associated factors of late HIV diagnosis and adjusted odds ratios were reported. Of 1385 individuals, 1043 (75.3%) were considered as LD. The following factors were identified as the associated factors of LD: age at diagnosis (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.22, 2.41), HCV co-infection (OR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.21), not living in Shiraz (OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.82), increased likelihood of LD and being housewife (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.95) which decreased the likelihood of LD. Our results showed delayed diagnosis of a large proportion of individuals with HIV. It is critical to improve the HIV testing guidelines in Iran to identify individuals with HIV without delays in order to provide them with timely HIV medical care and treatment.

Epidemiological and clinical features of cutaneous leishmaniasis and its time trend model in a high-endemic focus of disease in the southwest of Iran from 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a tropical infection with a relatively high incidence rate in Iran. The present study aimed to explore the time trend and associated factors of CL in Dezful, in southwest Iran. METHODS: This case series study was conducted on all CL patients registered from 2014 to 2019. The descriptive analysis of the data was done using SPSS 20 software and the time series model on the number of cases was run through Interactive Time Series Modeling software. RESULTS: A total of 5349 leishmaniasis cases were identified in the study area during 2014-2019. The highest incidence rate was 35 840 per 100 000 in 2014. The fitted time series model revealed a decreasing trend with an annual periodic pattern. The mean age of infection was 19.82 y (standard deviation 21.87). The infection was most frequent in the 1-10 y age group (41.7%). Also, females were more prone to leishmaniasis (54.7%). Most lesions were located on the hand (23.1%), face (19.7%), and forearm (17.75%) and 48.5% of patients had only one lesion. CONCLUSIONS: The results revealed a decreasing trend of leishmaniasis in Dezful. It has been predicted that this infection will reach a minimum rate (300 per 100 000) in the winter of 2021.

Hispanic ethnicity and in-hospital morbidity and mortality outcomes in Alzheimer's Disease: A U.S. National Study 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: Hispanics are one of the largest and fastest-growing population in the United States. Having been reported as one of the high-risk ethnicities to develop Alzheimer's Disease (AD) makes elder Hispanics one of the significant groups of AD in the country, indicating a need to study the disparities in Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics patients. We aimed to determine the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality outcomes of AD in Hispanics. METHODS: We surveyed Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) from 2005 to 2015 to identify patients older than 50 years who were admitted for any reason and had AD diagnosis. Prevalence, demographics, age brackets, in-hospital deaths, disease severity, and hospital length of stay (LOS) were compared between the Hispanics and Non-Hispanics. RESULTS: Among 14,135,560 Hispanic discharges, 2.76% had AD, compared with 207,515,260 discharges in Non-Hispanic with 2.61% AD, p < 0.001. Hispanics had significantly more AD in all age brackets, especially over 90 years of age, p < 0.001. A significantly higher prevalence of AD in both Hispanic Females (3.27% vs. 3.10%) and Males (2.17% vs. 2.04%) was noticed, p < 0.001. In northeast and south regions of the country and urban hospitals, AD was more among Hispanics (p < 0.001). Hispanic patients were younger (81.8 ± 7.77 vs. 82.6 ± 7.50, p < 0.001), had longer LOS (6.41 ± 7.72 vs. 6.08 ± 7.05, p < 0.001), had higher hospital charges ($45,989 vs. $37,688, p < 0.001). Hispanic AD patients had higher disease severity and mortality risk (p < 0.001). However, the inpatient mortality was not different between the Hispanic and non-Hispanics. Multivariate analysis showed that Hispanics had the highest AD prevalence in the inpatient setting (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.37-1.39, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of AD was significantly higher in inpatient Hispanics than non-Hispanics. Hispanic AD patients had a younger age compared with non-Hispanic AD. Disease severity and mortality risks were higher in Hispanics with AD than non-Hispanics with AD. However, no difference was seen in mortality rate during admission in Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics.

Hospital Outcomes in Uninsured Patients With Disease and Disorders of Nervous System: A National Cohort Study During a Decade in the United States.

Objectives Health insurance is associated with better outcomes in the admitted patient population, even after adjusting for other factors such as race and socioeconomic status. However, the literature is limited on the relationship between insurance status and hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with the disease of nervous system. Methods This cross-sectional study used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database to achieve the results. All Major Diagnostic Category (MDC) codes from patients discharged for disease and disorders of nervous system between the years 2005 to 2014 were queried and analyzed for the impact of lack of insurance on patient outcome. Results Among 4,737,999 discharges, 5.6% had no insurance. The hospital mortality rate among uninsured and insured patients was 4.1% and 3.7%, respectively (P<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, hospital mortality of uninsured patients was higher in the elderly (aOR: 4.74[CI:4.52-4.97], P<0.001), those with comorbidities (aOR: 2.23[CI:2.18-2.27], P<0.001), Asians (aOR: 1.16[CI:1.12-1.20]. P<0.001), in rural areas (aOR: 1.44[ 95%CI:1.41-1.48], P<0.001) and those in the lowest household income quartile (aOR: 1.03[CI:1.01-1.05], P<0.001). The average length of stay (LOS) was shorter for the uninsured (4.79±8.26 vs 4.96±7.55 days, P<0.001). Conclusions The findings suggest that lack of health insurance is correlated with hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with disease and disorders of nervous system, with an increased disparity in vulnerable populations.

An Online Investigation of Knowledge and Preventive Practices in Regard to COVID-19 in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Until now, there was no available study on the knowledge and practice of the people of Iran with regard to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and preventive practices of Iranians toward the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of 925 people who completed an online questionnaire in March 2020. The study used 21 and 14 questions, respectively, to assess the knowledge and preventive practices of the population in regard to COVID-19. Cronbach's alpha was 0.75 for the knowledge scale and 0.71 for the practice scale. To determine the importance of each independent variable in explaining the participant's practice, a multiple regression model was applied. KEY RESULTS: The results indicated a moderate level of knowledge and preventive practices in regard to COVID-19 in most of the respondents (56.8% and 56.5%, respectively). According to the multiple regression analysis, knowledge showed the highest effect on the practice of the participants (ß = 0.479). The determination coefficient for the model (R2 = 0.509) also showed approximately 51% of the variance in practice was explained by gender, occupational status, knowledge, cost of hand sanitizer, and the belief in the effectiveness of using such necessities. CONCLUSIONS: Acceptable rates of knowledge and practice were observed in most Iranians. However, approximately 10% of the participants were unaware of the effective measures for preventing the infection, which can cause active transmission of the virus. In addition to considering the importance of high community awareness in prevention and isolation measures, the government should provide disinfectants and other materials at a low price to reduce the transmission, as this may lead to effective practice to break the chain of transmission of COVID-19. [HLRP: Health Literacy Research and Practice. 2021;5(1):e15-e23.] PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This study sought to evaluate the knowledge and preventive practices of Iranians toward the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Findings of this research demonstrate acceptable rates of knowledge and practice in most Iranians; however, about 10% of them were unaware of the true prevention practices, which can cause active transmission of the virus.

The Impact of Abuse on the Quality of Life of the Elderly: A Population-based Survey in Iran.

OBJECTIVES: The quality of life (QoL) of the elderly and elder abuse are growing public health concerns. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of abuse and the association between QoL and abuse in older adults. METHODS: Multistage random cluster sampling, along with valid QoL (LEIPAD: LEIden, the Netherlands; PADua, Italy; Helsinki, Finland) and abuse questionnaires, were used to assess QoL and elder abuse. Path analysis was performed using Mplus. SPSS and AMOS were used for the other analyses. RESULTS: A total of 386 elderly individuals with a mean age of 68.00±6.10 years were interviewed, of whom 200 (51.8%), 289 (74.9%), and 376 (97.4%) were women, educated, and married, respectively. Moreover, 167 (43.2%) had low-to-moderate QoL, and 108 (27.9%) had experienced a moderate level of abuse. QoL and abuse were inversely associated (r=-0.253), with men (ß=-0.24) more affected than women (ß=-0.21). Musculoskeletal disorders were also strong determinants of QoL in the elderly. QoL was strongly associated with emotional abuse, while abuse was highly related to the social component of QoL. Furthermore, emotional abuse was the type of abuse most significantly associated with the self-care, depression/anxiety, cognitive, and social components of QoL. Sexual abuse, violation of personal rights, and neglect were the main determinants of the physical functioning, life satisfaction, and sexual domains of QoL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of the elderly individuals lacked a high QoL, and at least one-fourth had experienced some form of abuse. Elder abuse was correlated inversely with QoL. Therefore, preventive interventions are recommended to decrease elder abuse in the family, community, and other settings.

Determinants of AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality among people living with HIV in Shiraz, southern Iran: a 20-year retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection has become a global concern. Determining the factors leading to death among HIV patients helps controlling Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Up to now, little is known about mortality and its determinants among people living with HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including Iran. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors of AIDS-Related Mortality (ARM) and Non-AIDS-Related Mortality (NARM) among people with HIV in Iran. METHODS: This 20-year retrospective study was conducted on 1160 people with HIV whose data were collected from 1997 to 2017. The association of the study outcomes (ARM and NARM) with various study variables, including demographic status at the time of diagnosis and clinical indexes during the follow-up were examined to define the predictors of mortality among the patients. Regarding, Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were fitted and Adjusted Hazard Ratios (AHR), Sub-distribution Hazard Ratio (SHR) and the 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were reported. RESULTS: during the follow-up period, 391 individuals (33.7%) died with 86,375 person-years of follow-up. Of the total deaths, 251 (64.2%) and 140 (35.8%) were ARM and NARM, respectively. Rates of the mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS were 3.2 and 4.5 per 1000 person-months, respectively. Responding to combined Antiretroviral Treatment (cART) 6 months after initiation, receiving Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis, and higher CD4 count at diagnosis, reduced the hazard of ARM and NARM. However, older age, late HIV diagnosis, and last HIV clinical stages increased the hazard of AIDS related to mortality. Additionally, male gender, older age, incarceration history, and last HIV clinical stages increased the non-AIDS mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS remains high among people with HIV in Iran, particularly among males and those with late diagnosis. It seems that applying effective strategies to identify infected individuals at earlier stage of the infection, and targeting individuals with higher risk of mortality can decrease the mortality rate among HIV infected people.

From Iceberg of Pre-diabetes to Poor Glycemic Control in Diabetics: An Elderly Based Study in Shiraz, South of Iran.

BACKGROUND: Delay in diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) in older adults is more catastrophic than other age groups. This study investigated the prevalence of pre-diabetes, DM, and glycemic control in the elderly. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, a sample of 412 older adults >60 years from Shiraz, Iran, were recruited through a multistage cluster random sampling. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory information were collected by interview, physical examination, and reviewing the medical records. Data were analyzed using SPSS 20. RESULTS: Mean age was 68.1 ± 6.2 years and female-to-male ratio was 1.1. Out of all, 137 (33.2%) were diagnosed as diabetic including 128 (31%) as known cases and 9 (2.2%) as new cases of DM, whereas 275 (66.7%) were diagnosed as new cases of pre-diabetes. Multivariable analysis showed that low level of education (OR = 5.2, 95% CI: 1.5-16.6), hyperlipidemia (OR = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.1-5.8), liver disease (OR = 3.1, 95% CI: 1.4-6.9), and hypertension (HTN) (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.2) were the most common predictors of DM in the elderly, respectively. Out of all diabetics, 33.6% had FBS >130 mg/dL and 25.5% had HbA1c >8%, whereas these figures were ≥100 mg/dL and ≥5.7% in 36.7% and 21.4% of pre-diabetics, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The pre-diabetic elderly were mostly undiagnosed, while one-third to one-fourth of DMs had poor glycemic indices. These figures show the need for pre-diabetes and diabetes screening in the elderly, especially in those with low level of education, hyperlipidemia, liver disease, or HTN. Furthermore, regular monitoring of glycemic indices in the diabetic and pre-diabetic elderly is recommended.

Dietary Habits and Physical Activity are Associated With the Risk of Breast Cancer Among Young Iranian Women: A Case-control Study on 1010 Premenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Several studies conducted in developed countries introduced diet and physical inactivity as major risk factors for several types of cancers. However, the impact of diet and physical inactivity on the risk of breast cancer (BC) is understudied, and the limited findings are controversial. In addition, no or limited knowledge is available from the developing world. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This case-control study was performed from November 2014 to March 2016 on 1010 young women aged 20 to 50 years who were newly diagnosed with BC. Data was obtained via a validated questionnaire and the global physical activity questionnaire (GPAQ2). Also, patients' medical and histopathology reports were reviewed. RESULTS: The results of multiple logistic regression suggested that, except for the common risk factors for BC (older marital age, family history of BC, smoking, and being a passive smoker), eating red meat (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] >8 portions/week [p/w] vs. 0-2 p/w, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.28); eating fish (aOR >8 p/w vs. 0-2 p/w, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.12-2.76), fruit consumption (aOR 0-4 p/w vs. >8 p/w, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.07-3.82), pickle consumption (aOR >8 p/w vs. 7-8 p/w, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.31-1.70), and intensity of physical activity (aOR light vs. vigorous, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.47-1.98) were directly associated with a higher risk of BC in young women. CONCLUSION: Our study supported the hypothesis that unhealthy dietary habits and physical inactivity are risk factors for BC. We found that a healthy diet containing low fat and high fruits and vegetables with regular exercise are effective ways to reduce the risk of BC among young women.