Advancing Dermatological Diagnostics: Interpretable AI for Enhanced Skin Lesion Classification.

A crucial challenge in critical settings like medical diagnosis is making deep learning models used in decision-making systems interpretable. Efforts in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are underway to address this challenge. Yet, many XAI methods are evaluated on broad classifiers and fail to address complex, real-world issues, such as medical diagnosis. In our study, we focus on enhancing user trust and confidence in automated AI decision-making systems, particularly for diagnosing skin lesions, by tailoring an XAI method to explain an AI model's ability to identify various skin lesion types. We generate explanations using synthetic images of skin lesions as examples and counterexamples, offering a method for practitioners to pinpoint the critical features influencing the classification outcome. A validation survey involving domain experts, novices, and laypersons has demonstrated that explanations increase trust and confidence in the automated decision system. Furthermore, our exploration of the model's latent space reveals clear separations among the most common skin lesion classes, a distinction that likely arises from the unique characteristics of each class and could assist in correcting frequent misdiagnoses by human professionals.

Towards Transparent Healthcare: Advancing Local Explanation Methods in Explainable Artificial Intelligence.

This paper focuses on the use of local Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, particularly the Local Rule-Based Explanations (LORE) technique, within healthcare and medical settings. It emphasizes the critical role of interpretability and transparency in AI systems for diagnosing diseases, predicting patient outcomes, and creating personalized treatment plans. While acknowledging the complexities and inherent trade-offs between interpretability and model performance, our work underscores the significance of local XAI methods in enhancing decision-making processes in healthcare. By providing granular, case-specific insights, local XAI methods like LORE enhance physicians' and patients' understanding of machine learning models and their outcome. Our paper reviews significant contributions to local XAI in healthcare, highlighting its potential to improve clinical decision making, ensure fairness, and comply with regulatory standards.

Understanding peace through the world news.

Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.

Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment.

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the "phase 2" of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates-if and when they want and for specific aims-with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

A public data set of spatio-temporal match events in soccer competitions.

Soccer analytics is attracting increasing interest in academia and industry, thanks to the availability of sensing technologies that provide high-fidelity data streams for every match. Unfortunately, these detailed data are owned by specialized companies and hence are rarely publicly available for scientific research. To fill this gap, this paper describes the largest open collection of soccer-logs ever released, containing all the spatio-temporal events (passes, shots, fouls, etc.) that occured during each match for an entire season of seven prominent soccer competitions. Each match event contains information about its position, time, outcome, player and characteristics. The nature of team sports like soccer, halfway between the abstraction of a game and the reality of complex social systems, combined with the unique size and composition of this dataset, provide an ideal ground for tackling a wide range of data science problems, including the measurement and evaluation of performance, both at individual and at collective level, and the determinants of success and failure.

Algorithmic bias amplifies opinion fragmentation and polarization: A bounded confidence model.

The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance fragmentation and polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards opinion fragmentation, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict consensus, b) increased polarisation of opinions and c) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Fragmentation and polarization are augmented by a fragmented initial population.

Active and passive diffusion processes in complex networks.

Ideas, information, viruses: all of them, with their mechanisms, spread over the complex social information, viruses: all tissues described by our interpersonal relations. Usually, to simulate and understand the unfolding of such complex phenomena are used general mathematical models; these models act agnostically from the object of which they simulate the diffusion, thus considering spreading of virus, ideas and innovations alike. Indeed, such degree of abstraction makes it easier to define a standard set of tools that can be applied to heterogeneous contexts; however, it can also lead to biased, incorrect, simulation outcomes. In this work we introduce the concepts of active and passive diffusion to discriminate the degree in which individuals choice affect the overall spreading of content over a social graph. Moving from the analysis of a well-known passive diffusion schema, the Threshold model (that can be used to model peer-pressure related processes), we introduce two novel approaches whose aim is to provide active and mixed schemas applicable in the context of innovations/ideas diffusion simulation. Our analysis, performed both in synthetic and real-world data, underline that the adoption of exclusively passive/active models leads to conflicting results, thus highlighting the need of mixed approaches to capture the real complexity of the simulated system better.

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study.

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don't. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.

Returners and explorers dichotomy in human mobility.

The availability of massive digital traces of human whereabouts has offered a series of novel insights on the quantitative patterns characterizing human mobility. In particular, numerous recent studies have lead to an unexpected consensus: the considerable variability in the characteristic travelled distance of individuals coexists with a high degree of predictability of their future locations. Here we shed light on this surprising coexistence by systematically investigating the impact of recurrent mobility on the characteristic distance travelled by individuals. Using both mobile phone and GPS data, we discover the existence of two distinct classes of individuals: returners and explorers. As existing models of human mobility cannot explain the existence of these two classes, we develop more realistic models able to capture the empirical findings. Finally, we show that returners and explorers play a distinct quantifiable role in spreading phenomena and that a correlation exists between their mobility patterns and social interactions.