Global acceleration in rates of vegetation change over the past 18,000 years.

Global vegetation over the past 18,000 years has been transformed first by the climate changes that accompanied the last deglaciation and again by increasing human pressures; however, the magnitude and patterns of rates of vegetation change are poorly understood globally. Using a compilation of 1181 fossil pollen sequences and newly developed statistical methods, we detect a worldwide acceleration in the rates of vegetation compositional change beginning between 4.6 and 2.9 thousand years ago that is globally unprecedented over the past 18,000 years in both magnitude and extent. Late Holocene rates of change equal or exceed the deglacial rates for all continents, which suggests that the scale of human effects on terrestrial ecosystems exceeds even the climate-driven transformations of the last deglaciation. The acceleration of biodiversity change demonstrated in ecological datasets from the past century began millennia ago.

Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America.

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Postglacial change of the floristic diversity gradient in Europe.

Climate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change.

Emergence patterns of novelty in European vegetation assemblages over the past 15 000 years.

Plant communities are not stable over time and biological novelty is predicted to emerge due to climate change, the introduction of exotic species and land-use change. However, the rate at which this novelty may arise over longer time periods has so far received little attention. We reconstruct the emergence of novelty in Europe for a set of baseline conditions over the past 15 000 years to assess past rates of emergence and investigate underlying causes. The emergence of novelty is baseline specific and, during the early-Holocene, was mitigated by the rapid spread of plant taxa. Although novelty generally increases as a function of time, climate and human-induced landscape changes contributed to a non-linear post-glacial trajectory of novelty with jumps corresponding to periods of rapid changes. Emergence of novelty accelerated during the past 1000 years. Historical cultural landscapes experienced a faster novelty development due to the contribution from anthropogenic land-cover changes.

Closing the gap between plant ecology and Quaternary palaeoecology.

Ecology and Quaternary palaeoecology have largely developed as parallel disciplines. Although both pursue related questions, information exchange is often hampered by particularities of the palaeoecological data and a communicational gap has been perceived between the disciplines. Based on selected topics and developments mainly in Quaternary palaeoecology, we show that both disciplines have converged somewhat during recent years, while we still see untapped potential for closer interactions. Macroecology is probably the discipline that most easily combines different time-scales and where co-operations between palaeoecologists, geneticists and vegetation modellers have been inspiring. Quantitative vegetation reconstructions provide robust estimates of tree composition and land cover at different spatial scales, suitable for testing hypotheses about long-term vegetation changes or as quantitative background data in studies on contemporary vegetation patterns. Palaeo-data also hold yet unexplored potential to study the drivers of long-term diversity and aspects of functional diversity may facilitate comparisons between continents and over glacial-interglacial cycles.

Exploring holocene changes in palynological richness in northern Europe--did postglacial immigration matter?

In mid to high latitudes glacial and interglacial cycles have repeatedly changed the area available for plant growth. The speed at which plants are able to colonize areas at the onset of an interglacial is hypothesized to limit their distribution ranges even today (migrational lag). If the spread of plants would have been generally slow then plant diversity in previously glaciated areas would be expected to increase over time. We explore this hypothesis using results from six palynological investigations from two previously glaciated regions: central Sweden and north-eastern Germany. Rarefaction, slope of rank order abundance, and taxa accumulation plots were used to evaluate richness and evenness in pollen data in an attempt to separate richness from evenness. These analyses show little change in palynological richness for the northern sites throughout the Holocene. In contrast, the southern sites show an increase in richness and evenness during the early Holocene; this may be explained by the different initial conditions at the onset of the Holocene. A strong rise in palynological richness around 6000 and 1000 years ago at the southern sites can be attributed to the regional initiation of agriculture and major opening of the forest, respectively. For the northern sites there is no evidence for increased taxonomic diversity through time that could be due to delayed immigration of species.

Comment on "Glacial survival of boreal trees in northern Scandinavia".

Parducci et al. (Reports, 2 March 2012, p. 1083) fail to present convincing evidence for glacial survival of Pinus and Picea in northern Scandinavia. Their methodology does not exclude contamination. Additionally, they should consider the lack of suitable habitats, the apparent extinction of both taxa after deglacial warming, and alternative hypotheses for the distribution of the Picea genetic marker haplotype A.