Predicting sepsis-related mortality and ICU admissions from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives with acute infections: A cohort study of linked routine care databases.

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GPs) often assess patients with acute infections. It is challenging for GPs to recognize patients needing immediate hospital referral for sepsis while avoiding unnecessary referrals. This study aimed to predict adverse sepsis-related outcomes from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using linked routine care databases from out-of-hours GP cooperatives, general practices, hospitals and mortality registration. We included adult patients with complaints possibly related to an acute infection, who were assessed (clinic consultation or home visit) by a GP from a GP cooperative between 2017-2019. We used telephone triage information to derive a risk prediction model for sepsis-related adverse outcome (infection-related ICU admission within seven days or infection-related death within 30 days) using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network machine learning techniques. Data from 2017 and 2018 were used for derivation and from 2019 for validation. RESULTS: We included 155,486 patients (median age of 51 years; 59% females) in the analyses. The strongest predictors for sepsis-related adverse outcome were age, type of contact (home visit or clinic consultation), patients considered ABCD unstable during triage, and the entry complaints"general malaise", "shortness of breath" and "fever". The multivariable logistic regression model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90) with good calibration. Machine learning models performed similarly to the logistic regression model. A "sepsis alert" based on a predicted probability >1% resulted in a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 4.5%. However, most events occurred in patients receiving home visits, and model performance was substantially worse in this subgroup (C-statistic 0.70). CONCLUSION: Several patient characteristics identified during telephone triage of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives were associated with sepsis-related adverse outcomes. Still, on a patient level, predictions were not sufficiently accurate for clinical purposes.

Effects of access to radiology in out-of-hours primary care on patient satisfaction and length of stay.

BACKGROUND: Direct access to hospital radiology facilities by general practitioner (GP) cooperatives is known to decrease the number of emergency department referrals, but the effects on length of stay (LOS; time from patient arrival at GP cooperative till departure to home) and patient experiences are unclear. OBJECTIVES: To provide insight into the LOS and experiences of trauma patients with an indication for radiology at GP cooperatives with and without access to radiology. METHODS: A multi-methods observational study in April 2014-October 2015 at six GP cooperatives in The Netherlands, covering three organisational models for access to radiology: no direct access, limited access and unlimited access. Patient experiences were measured with a questionnaire. Patient records were analysed for background characteristics, radiology outcomes, referral and LOS. RESULTS: In total 657 patients were included, 232 no direct access model, 307 limited access model and 118 unlimited access model. The mean LOS was 99 minutes, with a significant difference between GP cooperatives without access to radiology (121 minutes), with limited access (86 minutes), and with unlimited access (90 minutes). The differences were larger for patients without radiological abnormalities. On a ten-point scale, patients rated GP cooperatives with unlimited access to radiology higher (8.62) than those without access (8.36) or with limited access (8.39). CONCLUSION: Access to radiology by GP cooperatives seems to reduce the length of stay and is slightly more appreciated by patients. GP cooperatives with unlimited access seem to provide the most efficient and best-valued care, contributing to more patient-centred care.

Emergency departments in The Netherlands.

Emergency medicine in The Netherlands is faced with an increasing interest by politicians and stakeholders in health care. This is due to crowding, increasing costs, criticism of the quality of emergency care, restructuring of out-of-hours services in primary care and the introduction of a training programme for emergency physicians in 2000. A comprehensive search was conducted of published research, policy reports and updated Dutch websites on acute care. Publications were included in this review if these referred to emergency care, including emergency departments (ED), general practitioner (GP) cooperatives and emergency medical services in The Netherlands and were written in English or Dutch. The literature search identified 14 eligible papers. The manual search identified 11 additional papers. Seven reports and two PhD theses were also included. Given the lack of relevant empirical research the review was liberal in its inclusion, but the analysis focused on research when available. ED in The Netherlands are in different stages of development. However, it is obvious that the presence of emergency physicians is increasing and more ED will be staffed by emergency physicians. Although this seems an important step, it does not necessarily imply a good position of the emergency physician in the ED. What the characteristics of the future patient of the Dutch ED will be is dependent on the development of different ED levels of care and GP cooperatives. The lack of empirical research also points out the need for research on quality of care in Dutch ED.

Development of out-of-hours primary care by general practitioners (GPs) in The Netherlands: from small-call rotations to large-scale GP cooperatives.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 10 years, care outside office hours by primary care physicians in The Netherlands has experienced a radical change. While Dutch general practitioners (GPs) formerly performed these services in small-call rotations, care is nowadays delivered by large-scale GP cooperatives. METHODS: We searched the literature for relevant studies on the effect of the out-of-hours care reorganization in The Netherlands. We identified research that included before- and afterintervention studies, descriptive studies, and surveys. These studies focused on the consequences of reorganizing several aspects of out-of-hours care, such as patient and GP satisfaction, patient characteristics, utilization of care, and costs. RESULTS: Various studies showed that the reorganization has successfully addressed many of the critical issues that Dutch GPs were confronted with delivering these services. GPs' job satisfaction has increased, and patients seem to be satisfied with current out-of-hours care. DISCUSSION: Several aspects of out-of-hours care are discussed, such as telephone triage, self referrals, and future expectations, which should receive extra attention by researchers and health policy makers in the near future.