Modelling elephant corridors over two decades reveals opportunities for conserving connectivity across a large protected area network.

Protected area (PA) connectivity is pivotal for the persistence of wide-ranging wildlife species, but is challenged by habitat loss and fragmentation. We analyzed habitat suitability and connectivity for the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) across PAs in south-western Tanzania in 2000, 2010, and 2019. We quantified land-use changes through remote sensing data; estimated habitat suitability through aerial survey data, remotely sensed variables and ensemble species distribution models; modelled least-cost corridors; identified the relative importance of each corridor for the connectivity of the PA network and potential bottlenecks over time through circuit theory; and validated corridors through local ecological knowledge and ground wildlife surveys. From 2000 to 2019, cropland increased from 7% to 13% in the region, with an average expansion of 634 km2 per year. Distance from cropland influenced elephant distribution models the most. Despite cropland expansion, the locations of the modelled elephant corridors (n = 10) remained similar throughout the survey period. Based on local ecological knowledge, nine of the modelled corridors were active, whereas one modelled corridor had been inactive since the 1970s. Based on circuit theory, we prioritize three corridors for PA connectivity. Key indicators of corridor quality varied over time, whereas elephant movement through some corridors appears to have become costlier over time. Our results suggest that, over the past two decades, functional connectivity across the surveyed landscape has largely persisted. Beyond providing crucial information for spatial prioritization of conservation actions, our approach highlights the importance of modeling functional connectivity over time and verifying corridor models with ground-truthed data.

Analysis of Land Cover Changes in Afromontane Vegetation of Image Forest Reserve, Southern Highlands of Tanzania.

An analysis of land cover changes (LCCs) was done in Image Forest Reserve (IFR) from August to October 2019. Free satellite images for 1990, 2004, and 2018 were downloaded from Landsat 5 (TM) and Landsat 8 (OLI) available through the USGS portal. Ground surveys were conducted using systematically set plots of 20 m × 40 m to identify the existing land cover types and human illegal activities. Geographical coordinates for each of these plots were recorded using handheld GPS. We witnessed the changes of land cover types in the three decades. Forest had contracted, while shrubland and grassland and woodland had expanded within IFR. Between 1990 and 2004, woodland, bareland and rocky outcrops, shrubland, and grassland had consistently decreased though at a different rate of change, while forest has increased between the same assessment periods. The period of 2004-2018 has shown a consistent increase at different rates in woodland, bareland and rocky outcrops, shrubland, and grassland at a different rate of change, while forest has decreased between the same assessment periods. Further study is needed, bylaws and laws should be implemented, participatory forest management should be encouraged, beekeeping and ecotourism should be introduced, provision of regular education to the community by the Tanzania Forest Service (TFS) should be encouraged, and awareness creation should be made.