RESUMO
In 1966, an official report predicted a 3-decades period of shortage of physicians in private practice in Switzerland. However a demographic analysis of the trends of medical students provided a totally different picture, as early as 1971. As a matter of fact, the ratio of doctors in private practice per 100,000 population rose to 195 in 2000 from 88 three decades earlier. In 2020, Switzerland will have a ratio of 240-270, whatever the decisions made today. Will such a tremendous increase introduce a damaging surplus of private practitioners? Medical progress, population aging, increase in the per capita demand for health care and other factors as well give raise to an other conclusion, much more optimistic.
Assuntos
Mão de Obra em Saúde/tendências , Médicos/provisão & distribuição , Adulto , Idoso , Atenção à Saúde , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Dinâmica Populacional , SuíçaRESUMO
The number of physicians in private practice per 100,000 populations will raise to 210 in the year 2005 and to 235-265 in the year 2020, from 187 in 1998. The feeling of manpower surplus is spreading in Switzerland and some commentators are voicy as concerns aggravated oversupply in the future. During the period 1990-2020, the Swiss population will increase +12% but the population aged 65 and over will increase +57%. Even if the elderly in the forthcoming decades will be in better health than their today's counterparts, most probably the demand for health services will increase. Social change, medical technology progress and growth in the population-doctor ratio itself will fuel the process.
Assuntos
Idoso , Envelhecimento , Expectativa de Vida , Médicos/provisão & distribuição , Crescimento Demográfico , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Previsões , Gastos em Saúde , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mudança Social , SuíçaAssuntos
Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Serviços de Saúde/economia , Assistência Ambulatorial/economia , Demografia , Organização do Financiamento , Previsões , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Mão de Obra em Saúde/economia , Mão de Obra em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Seguro Saúde/economia , SuíçaRESUMO
PIP: The author examines some of the issues facing those responsible for developing family policies in European countries, many of which are experiencing rapid demographic aging. Population dynamics in Council of Europe member countries are first described. Implications of this trend for social policies as a whole are also reviewed.^ieng